中东发展报告NO.17（2014～2015）
| 书 名： |
中东发展报告NO.17（2014～2015） |
| 英 文 名： |
ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST No.17 （2014-2015）
|
| 作 者： |
杨光 主编;陈沫 副主编 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5097-8027-5 |
| 丛 书 名： |
|
| 关 键 词： |
中东经济 中东政治 石油价格 伊斯兰国 |
| 出版时间： |
2015年11月 |
中文摘要
本年度的《中东发展报告》以“低油价及其对中东的影响”为研究专题，论述了国际油价下跌这一中东国家自2014年以来共同面临的重大发展环境变化的原因和前景，及其对中东经济和地缘政治可能产生的影响，着重对石油输出国组织的地位和作用、沙特阿拉伯的市场行为、中东金融市场的变化，以及伊朗核问题谈判的前景，进行了专题分析。
专题报告认为，本轮油价下跌的原因既包括国际石油市场供求关系的变化，也包括世界和地区大国的地缘政治博弈。本轮油价下跌将不会是一个短期的现象，而很可能是一个持续数年的低油价周期的开始。尽管中东国家有石油输出国和非石油输出国之分，但低油价的持续对于中东经济带来的消极影响可能大于积极影响，欧洲经济持续低迷造成的中东国家出口市场不景气，将在很大程度上冲销油价下降对中东石油进口国带来的进口成本下降红利。低油价对于中东地区的地缘政治也会产生影响，特别是对伊朗核问题的谈判会产生推动作用，但不会改变中东地缘政治格局的多极化趋势。
本报告回顾和分析了一年多以来中东地区政治局势的新发展，重点揭示了中东地区局势乱中有治的特征。一方面，围绕“伊斯兰国”的出现和扩张，以及也门危机的爆发，论述了中东地区局势动乱的新热点；另一方面，围绕一批国家顺利举行大选和实现政权交接，分析介绍了埃及、沙特阿拉伯、突尼斯、土耳其、阿富汗等国家新一届领导人的国家治理方略，特别介绍了一些曾经遭受“阿拉伯之春”运动冲击的国家逐步实现由乱到治的进程。
本报告还回顾和分析了一年多来中东地区市场的发展趋势，着重介绍了中东国家的货物贸易市场、建筑工程承包市场和投资市场的新变化；介绍了近年国内外中东研究学科的新进展，整理了中东地区的大事记，为跟踪中东地区的市场变化和中东研究学科的研究前沿，提供了全面扎实的信息。
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主报告
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市场走向
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