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中国上市公司发展报告(2020)

书 名: 中国上市公司发展报告(2020)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINESE LISTED COMPANIES (2020)
作 者:  张鹏 杨耀武 张磊 黄胤英 程锦锥 张平
I S B N: 978-7-5201-7276-9
丛 书 名: 中国上市公司蓝皮书
关 键 词:  上市公司 经济发展 金融研究
出版日期: 2020-10-01

中文摘要

2020年新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延,世界经济遭受了自“大萧条”以来最严重的冲击,多国经济被迫按下“暂停键”,全球金融市场一度恐慌。第二季度欧美等发达经济体经济陆续重启,全球经济有触底回稳之势,但随着复工的推进,美国和一些新兴经济体的新增病例快速上升,对全球经济复苏形成了拖累。在国内坚持防控与推动复工复产“两手抓”的情况下,第二季度中国经济同比增速由负转正,预计全年经济将维持2%以上的增长。如果从上市公司微观主体加以考察,上市公司在2018~2019年市场创值能力就开始下降,突发公共卫生事件危机,对上市公司创值能力形成了新的更大冲击,并且这种冲击存在非常大的行业异质性。从上市公司创新转型之路来看,目前,计算机、国防军工、医药生物等行业创新活跃度居前,在资本市场改革持续深化的情况下,创新活跃度高的公司股票二级市场表现较好,这对优化金融资源配置将发挥积极作用。

本书分报告一进一步从创值能力角度对中国A股和香港中资股进行了评估。从短期看,为了对冲疫情冲击,短期内政策加码和流动性的相对宽裕带动了市场行情的上升。进入第二季度后,随着疫情得到初步控制和复工复产的加快,业绩带来的基本面修复和增长将成为主导未来市场走向的关键。从长远看,创新的长期性和“确定性”与公司治理架构完善带来估值上击机会,中国资本市场持续而坚定的改革开放政策带来的增量资金流入和投资风格切换,有力地推动了中国优质上市公司价值创造能力的提高和中国资本市场的健康发展。基于此背景,报告在2019年价值评估模型基础上,更加完善细化和加入、更新多维度的衡量指标,最终形成五维度的价值评估模型,充分兼顾了行业差异性和公司异质性特征,并使用年报公开数据对中国A股和香港中资股分行业上市公司进行了评估与综合排名,筛选出分行业价值较高的上市公司,构成“漂亮100”投资组合,该投资组合回测效果良好,组合在经风险调整后收益较高,这也提示该组合集聚了中国各行业较为优质的微观主体,是中国宏观经济形势在微观上的反映。分报告二从全球化角度研究了中国资本市场面临的机遇和挑战。报告认为得益于第二次经济全球化提供的产业国际转移战略机遇期,特别是对垂直专业化生产和全球价值链建设的充分参与,东亚新兴经济体实现了从雁行模式到东亚一体化的飞跃,迅速缩小了与发达经济体在制造业国际竞争力上的差距。正是出于对离岸生产商获取知识外溢潜力低估,以美国为代表的发达经济体知识创新所创造的市场相当一部分外溢给东亚新兴经济体,并已经到了损及发达经济体创新生态的完整性,危害相应的创新潜力程度。因此,美国要求根据互惠责任和体制趋同原则对原有全球化战略进行调整,试图将自由贸易由准公共产品转向俱乐部产品,实现知识外溢在遵循共同的产权保护和利益相关者治理规则的俱乐部成员内部再分配。美国全球化战略的调整势必会限制东亚新兴经济体作为离岸生产商获取世界经济知识外溢的能力,迫使中国采取两融创新的国家发展战略,切实提升自身市场创造能力,并提出相应的资本市场发展和投资策略。两个专题报告分别回顾了中国债券市场发展情况及面临的风险和机遇、中国上市公司人力资本积累状况,对于理解债券市场未来走势和中国上市公司人力资本分布具有重要的参考价值。

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