中国财政政策报告（2021）
书 名： 中国财政政策报告（2021）
英 文 名： ANNUAL REPORT ON FISCAL POLICY OF CHINA （2021）
作 者： 刘尚希
I S B N： 978-7-5201-8587-5
丛 书 名：
财政蓝皮书
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关 键 词： 财政政策 国家治理 国家发展 政策评估 财政管理
出版日期： 2021-06-01
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中文摘要
在新冠肺炎疫情的冲击下，2020年世界经济严重衰退，大国博弈仍未减弱。疫情风险、经济运行风险、公共风险多重叠加并相互转化，中国经济社会运行承受了前所未有的压力。对冲风险成为2020年财政政策的主基调，稳定经济基本盘成为财政政策的重要目标。但以扩大公共债务对冲公共风险，也使得财政风险进一步积累。从中长期看，应注意财政政策空间逐步收窄的趋势，更关注财政收支和政府债务的稳健平衡，增强财政政策的可持续性。
新阶段、新理念、新格局下财政政策的目标和逻辑路径发生变化，中长期视野下财政政策应聚焦“人”的现代化发力。2021年是“十四五”规划的开局之年，也是“两个百年”奋斗目标交汇与转换之年，财政政策要聚焦稳定各方预期。在经济层面，财政政策可着力对冲疫情衍生风险、宏观经济运行风险等多重风险，稳定市场主体预期；在社会层面，财政政策可着力对冲人力资本配置风险、利益分配失衡风险和环境可持续风险，稳定各类主体预期。同时，还需要通过完善预算管理和深化财政体制改革，优化和拓展财政政策空间，稳定各级政府主体的预期。
经济形势预测结果显示，在疫情得到持续有效控制的条件下，2021年全国GDP增速在6.5%～8%，CPI增速将低于2020年水平，PPI在经济恢复的带动下上行；如果出现疫情反弹的情景，GDP增速可能维持2.3%或略高。从中长期看，“十四五”期间经济增速在5%以上。财政收支预测结果显示，2021年一般公共预算收入显著提升，“十四五”期间增速放缓；同年财政支出仍保持较高增速，整个“十四五”期间财政支出依旧面临较大压力。不过，随着医疗、社会保障、科学技术等领域的财政投入实现较快增长，财政支出结构有望优化，资金使用效率有望提升。
在财政风险管理方面，中国地方政府债务问题在新冠肺炎疫情冲击下更加凸显，从时间和空间两个维度看待债务价值，建议把债务风险和公共风险的平衡作为地方政府债务可持续性的基本标准。总体上财政改革的每一步都带有公共风险变化的烙印，应从财政风险管理的角度审视当前财政体制的问题，以防范化解公共风险为导向，展望下一步财政体制改革。
本报告最后围绕社会广泛关切的政策领域开展探讨。在反贫困治理中，财政政策起到了举足轻重的作用，今后的工作重点在于防范返贫风险、巩固脱贫成果。“十四五”时期，为防范由新型就业发展、经济增速放缓、老龄化进程加快和城镇化推进等因素引发人力资源错配的风险，财政政策要以“人”为核心、促进人全面发展和基本公共服务均等化，提高就业稳定性、充分性和平等性。在资源环境领域，应完善环境风险共担机制、加强防范跨区域跨流域环境风险，建立全生命周期绿色低碳激励机制。
为防止新冠肺炎疫情冲击引发深度经济衰退，发达国家普遍采取超常规的财政、货币政策手段，并在政策空间的制约下加强财政部门与货币当局的协同合作。未来错综复杂的国际局势恐将加剧风险的全球性外溢影响，原有的宏观调控思路难以解决经济结构性变化衍生的潜在风险。中国要把握当前的战略机遇，在风险理性的基础上研究货币融资策略的适度性与制度化管理，优化利用公共资源对冲公共风险的效率，构建发展的确定性。
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