2013年中国经济形势分析与预测
书 名： 2013年中国经济形势分析与预测
英 文 名： ECONOMY OF CHINA ANALYSIS AND FORECAST （2013）
作 者： 陈佳贵 李扬 李平 李雪松 张平
I S B N： 978-7-5097-4029-3
丛 书 名：
经济蓝皮书
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关 键 词： 经济分析 经济预测 中国
出版日期： 2012-12-01
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中文摘要
《本书是在中国社会科学院经济学部“中国经济形势分析与预测＂课题组召开“中国经济形势分析与预测——2012年秋季座谈会”的基础上，由政府部门、科研机构、高等院校等各方专家、学者共同撰写的关于2012～2013年中国经济形势的最新研究成果。
受欧债危机与世界经济增速放缓影响，2012年我国经济增速比上年明显回落。预计GDP增速为7.7%左右，比上年回落1.6个百分点。中国GDP增速从2007年的14.2%下降到2012年的7.7%，几近折半，但仍能实现十八大提出的2020年我国GDP和人均收入比2010年翻两番、全面建成小康社会的目标。
随着15～59岁劳动年龄人口于2010年开始负增长，推动过去30余年高速经济增长的劳动力和资本供给以及全要素生产率增长条件，都趋于减缓经济增长。中国潜在产出年均增长率将下降为“十二五”期间的7.2%和“十三五”期间的6.1%。保持未来经济增长的关键在于通过改革提高潜在增长率。
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