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阿拉伯发展报告(2022)

书 名: 阿拉伯发展报告(2022)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT OF ARAB (2022)
作 者:  罗林 田文林 涂龙德
I S B N: 978-7-5228-1895-5
丛 书 名: 阿拉伯黄皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  阿拉伯国家 政治转型 阵营化 地区博弈 经济形势
出版日期: 2023-05-01

中文摘要

《阿拉伯发展报告(2022)》主要对2021年中东形势进行系统分析和探讨。2011年中东剧变是中东遭遇的百年未有之大剧变,近年又遭遇百年不遇之大疫情。在多重危机的共同作用下,中东地区始终难以实现稳定与发展。2021年,中东地区仍在困顿中寻求突围。

首先,经济形势处在萧条期。时至今日,中东经济状况并未出现根本性好转迹象。2020年以来全球疫情蔓延,以及全球经济低迷导致的油价暴跌,使中东地区原本疲弱的经济形势雪上加霜。2021年后半年,受油价回升和疫情控制等利好影响,中东经济开始触底反弹。由于结构性危机、周期性危机和疫情危机并未解决且诸多不利因素相互叠加,中东国家整体经济状况仍处在萧条震荡期。

其次,中东治理模式仍处在探索期。中东地区面临至今没有各国公认的样板和模式,中东政治转型仍处在艰难探索期。一则,世俗化与伊斯兰化的方向之争仍无定论。二则,集权化与分权化趋势并行不悖,中东政治转型左右摇摆。

再次,中东地区格局处在“缓和与动荡并存”的转型期。在经历了长达十年的激烈博弈后,地区大国普遍出现扩张政策后劲不足的倾向。2021年中东出现了难得的缓和趋势。但中东许多地区仍深陷人道主义灾难,极端恐怖组织威胁也不容小觑。

最后,美国中东政策处在调适期。2021年拜登政府上台后,美国中东政策看似与特朗普政府的截然不同,实则换汤不换药,主旋律仍是战略收缩,只不过策略和手段存在较大差异。

《阿拉伯发展报告(2022)》内容主要分为六部分。第一部分是总报告,主要探讨2021年阿拉伯国家的政治经济处境、地区博弈态势、美国中东政策等主要问题。第二部分是国别报告,主要对阿富汗、伊拉克、突尼斯、也门、埃及等国的年度形势进行了评估。第三部分是专题报告,主要就中东地区格局阵营化问题、阿拉伯油气市场、中东经济复苏问题、“什叶派新月地带”与伊朗地区政策、巴以问题进程与前景展望、阿尔及利亚与摩洛哥的领土争端、塔利班在阿富汗重新掌权等进行专题探讨。第四部分是大国与中东,分别探讨美国、俄罗斯域外大国在中东地区的竞争与博弈态势。第五部分是中阿关系,主要围绕中阿经贸合作、中国与海合会合作问题进行探讨。第六部分是附录,整理了阿拉伯国家2021年度大事记。

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