阿拉伯发展报告（2015～2016）
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中文摘要
当前，阿拉伯世界总体仍处于动荡期，爆发“阿拉伯之春”的国家，其动荡正日益向纵深发展。从国家层面看，叙利亚成为中东各种力量博弈的主战场；利比亚变成“北非动荡源头”；也门人道主义危机全面深化；突尼斯在民主转型中艰难前行；沙特等产油国因国际油价持续暴跌，财政收入持续减少，福利水平锐减，政局稳定面临新的挑战。从地区层面看，极端恐怖主义仍然肆虐。2015年以来，围绕打击“伊斯兰国”，国际社会分别形成以美国、俄罗斯、沙特为首的三股联盟力量，“伊斯兰国”虽然颓势日显，但尚未受到毁灭性打击，该地区极端恐怖势力仍将活跃，并持续冲击中东地缘格局和相关国家的政局稳定。同时，沙特与伊朗因“奈米尔事件”宣布断交，表明伊斯兰教逊尼派和什叶派的矛盾日益公开化，教派矛盾是影响中东地区局势的突出问题。从国际层面看，美国中东战略收缩，俄罗斯强势重返中东，欧盟则遭遇二战以来最严重的中东难民潮。这种大国介入与博弈，使中东局势更加错综复杂，由此中东问题已不再是中东本身的问题，而成为关乎全球稳定和发展的世界性问题。
《阿拉伯发展报告（2015～2016）》主要分为五部分：第一部分是总报告，从中东国家治理危机、秩序危机、体系危机与国际治理模式危机四方面，分析中东乱局的纵深发展态势；第二部分是专题篇，分别对低迷油价在阿拉伯世界产生的影响、巴以问题发展走向、极端恐怖主义态势、教派矛盾以及阿拉伯世界各界对“阿拉伯之春”反思等内容进行深入分析；第三部分是国家篇，主要对埃及、利比亚、突尼斯、沙特、阿尔及利亚、叙利亚、也门等国当前政治形势进行具体评估；第四部分是国际关系篇，分别从奥巴马政府中东政策、俄罗斯“重返中东”新态势及影响以及中东难民潮对欧盟的冲击与挑战三方面予以深入探讨；第五部分系统分析了“一带一路”与中国的中东战略。
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总报告
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专题篇
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国家篇
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国际关系篇
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“一带一路”与阿拉伯世界
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附录
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