中国城市发展报告No.16
中文摘要
当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局，我国社会矛盾发生转化，外部形势更加严峻、内部矛盾更趋复杂，各种不确定性因素明显增多，各类风险隐患发生的概率明显上升，我国安全形势面临前所未有的巨大挑战。习近平总书记指出“城市发展不能只考虑规模经济效益，必须把生态和安全放在更加突出的位置”。建设韧性城市是遵循城市发展客观规律的内在要求，是强化底线思维、统筹发展和安全的重要抓手，更是推进城市治理现代化和高质量发展的迫切需要。在此背景下，深入探讨中国韧性城市发展之路，对于高水平建设平安中国、以新安全格局保障新发展格局具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和二〇三五年远景目标的建议》提出要“统筹发展和安全”“把安全发展贯穿国家发展各领域和全过程，防范和化解影响我国现代化进程的各种风险，筑牢国家安全屏障”。党的二十大强调“要推进国家安全体系和能力现代化”，建设更高水平的平安中国。大国治“安”成为新时代高质量发展的重要基石。城市不仅是经济社会发展的核心载体和引擎，同时人口和经济活动的高度集聚也使城市更容易成为风险策源地和灾损中心。《中国城市发展报告No.16》（以下简称《报告》）以“大国治‘安’之韧性城市高质量发展”为主题，以坚持总体国家安全观为核心，以“统筹发展和安全”为方向，聚焦中国韧性城市的高质量发展之路，共设计了总报告、经济韧性篇、社会韧性篇、生态韧性篇、工程韧性篇、国内经验篇、国际经验篇、城市发展大事记8个部分，分专题深入分析了我国韧性城市建设发展沿革、建设现状、问题挑战、制度建设、实践工作等，梳理总结我国城市在提升经济韧性、增强社会韧性、强化生态韧性和夯实工程韧性等方面的优势基础、发展成效和面临问题，并借鉴国内外典型经验和有效做法，研究提出中国式现代化下中国韧性城市高质量发展的总体思路、重点任务及对策建议。
《报告》认为，伴随总体国家安全观和“统筹发展和安全”要求的提出，我国城市韧性建设不断增强，韧性水平稳步提升，低和较低韧性城市数量总体明显减少，中等及以上韧性城市数量明显增加，城市抵抗力、恢复力、创新力指数皆稳步上升，不同区域城市韧性水平保持稳定增长。城市风险度方面，整体风险略有下降，风险防控能力不断提升，短板弱项逐步完善；城市抵抗力方面，数字经济赋能产业发展，社会保障体系日益完善，生态系统服务能力明显提升，基础设施防灾能力明显增强，城市整体抵御风险能力不断增强；城市恢复力方面，扩大内需深化开放推动城市经济恢复，公共服务稳步发展增强社会恢复力，污染防治与生态保护并重系统提升生态恢复力，开展适应型城市试点强化基础设施韧性；城市创新力方面，创新投入不断提升，创新产出飞跃式增长，城市成为创新策源地和核心载体。
《报告》同时指出，韧性城市建设依然存在一些问题，低和较低韧性城市仍占我国城市六成以上，韧性指数呈现明显的两极分化。具体表现为保持长期稳定经济增长能力有待提升、社会系统适应调整能力有待增强、生态系统的安全屏障作用亟待强化、基础设施抗风险能力仍需筑牢、韧性城市规划和治理水平有待提升。纵观国际韧性城市建设经验，主要体现为：要制定城市韧性规划，为韧性城市建设提供制度保障；强化基础设施支撑，为韧性城市建设提供物质基础；重视多方协同合作，为韧性城市建设提供组织架构；关注极端气候变化，为韧性城市建设提供意识引领；打造创新生态系统，为韧性城市建设提供内核动力。
《报告》强调，新时代新形势下，我国韧性城市建设正日益呈现出以下趋势：一是韧性认知及理论工具逐渐从“复杂性”范式转向“抗解性”范式；二是韧性构建模式逐步从静态的被动防御转向动态的主动适应和全周期风险防控；三是韧性建设重点由强调城市物理空间安全转向经济、社会、生态系统、物理空间协调可持续发展；四是韧性建设主体由强调政府主导转向推动“自然—政府—市场—社会”四主体协同；五是韧性治理机制由自上而下的行政动员转向上下结合的多元、多向度、多主体联动。
立足中国国情、借鉴国际经验，《报告》在分析研判我国韧性城市高质量发展未来趋势的基础上，进一步提出新发展阶段韧性城市高质量发展的优化路径，即以抗解性理论构建新范式，彰显理念引领力；以动态适应性打造新模式，提升风险防控力；以分布式布局塑造新格局，增强风险抵抗力；以提质增量营造新品质，强化灾后恢复力；以创新驱动形成新机制，激发韧性创新力，以系统思维搭建治理新框架，优化韧性治理力。
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总报告
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经济韧性篇
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国际经验篇
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