2025年中国经济形势分析与预测
| 书 名： |
2025年中国经济形势分析与预测 |
| 英 文 名： |
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF CHINA’S ECONOMIC SITUATION （2025）
|
| 作 者： |
王昌林 主编; 李海舰 冯明 副主编 |
| I S B N： |
978-7-5228-4633-0 |
| 丛 书 名： |
|
| 关 键 词： |
中国经济 “三积极”的宏观政策 扩大内需 |
| 出版时间： |
2024年12月 |
中文摘要
2024年，我国经济延续总体平稳、稳中有进的态势，经济运行中呈现诸多结构性亮点，转型升级步伐加快。预计全年经济增长4.9%左右，CPI涨幅0.5%左右，能够实现预期目标任务。展望2025年，从国际看，世界百年未有之大变局持续演化，新一轮“特朗普冲击”来袭，大国博弈加剧，乌克兰危机走势可能出现新的变数，中东局势延宕升级，世界经济总体稳定但增长动能不足，全球贸易保护主义加剧，我国发展面临的外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升。从国内看，一揽子增量政策效应将逐步显现，房地产市场和股市企稳有助于带动消费和投资增长，进一步全面深化改革将激发经济增长内生动力。同时，出口面临下行压力加大，内需不足的矛盾突出，一些企业经营困难持续，经济运行结构性挑战仍然较大。2025年是“十四五”规划的收官之年，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实党的二十大精神，加快落实二十届三中全会提出的进一步全面深化改革的各项举措，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，全面深化改革开放，推动高质量发展。宏观调控要创新思路、转变方式、调整方向：一是调控思路要从“供给侧为主”向“供需双侧并重”转变；二是把扩大内需的重点转到消费上来；三是扩大投资要从“投资于物”向“投资于物与人并重”转变；同时要更多通过深化改革来激发经济活力，释放发展动力。建议将2025年经济增长目标设定在5%左右，实施“三积极”的宏观政策，加力推出一揽子增量政策：积极的财政政策要加力提效，积极的货币政策要适度宽松，积极的社会政策要更有温度，增强获得感。重点抓好以下几方面工作任务：一是以提振消费为重点扩大国内需求；二是加快培育壮大新质生产力；三是着力激发经营主体活力和动力；四是加大力度保障和改善民生；五是推动一批标志性改革举措加快落地显效；六是着力防范化解重点领域风险。
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