中国人口与劳动问题报告No.25
书 名： 中国人口与劳动问题报告No.25
英 文 名： REPORT ON CHINA’S POPULATION AND LABOR NO.25
作 者： 蔡昉 都阳 主编
I S B N： 978-7-5228-4604-0
丛 书 名：
关 键 词： 人口高质量发展 人口全生命周期 高质量充分就业
出版时间： 2024年12月
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中文摘要
在实现中华民族伟大复兴的征程中，人口问题是需要始终面对的基本因素。个体生命历程的每个阶段是彼此相连、相互影响的关系，特定年龄阶段的人口特征不仅反映自身整体状况，还是此前人口数量和质量的“回声”，更对此后各年龄阶段的人口发展产生影响。人的全面发展体现于生命周期的每个阶段，需要以覆盖全人群和全生命周期的政策合力，促进发挥人口高质量发展之效能。
从人口规模上看，2023年中国总人口较上年减少208万人，远高于2022年的85万人。从劳动市场上看，2024年中国失业率总体稳定，但结构性失业矛盾依旧突出。因此转向投资于人的发展战略不仅是适应人口发展新形势的必然要求，更是统筹谋划全生命周期人口高质量发展的顶层设计。
人口高质量发展既是中国式现代化的基本手段，更是其发展的终极目标。从全生命周期属性探索人口高质量的实现路径是响应“人口回声”规律性特征的因势利导举措，生命周期各个阶段的人口高质量发展与中华文明现代化建设具有高度逻辑一致性和理论自洽性。
保持适度的生育水平是全生命周期人口高质量发展的首要环节。中国育龄人群未满足的生育意愿普遍存在，这为进一步完善生育养育服务体系传递了重要信号。优化生育政策的瞄准机制，有利于促进生育率回升。
高质量的人力资本积累体系是提升人口素质的重要保障，建立覆盖全生命周期的终身学习教育体系是办好人民满意教育的必由之路。其中，早期人力资本投资的回报率和收益率在全生命周期中最高。从0～3岁儿童早期发展的国际经验和中国实践来看，补充0～3岁儿童早期发展的政策短板，将其纳入基本公共服务范畴是提升经济生产力的有效发展策略。
高质量充分就业是劳动年龄人口高质量发展的集中体现。短期来看，需通过经济发展带动消除周期性失业；长期而言，更需使就业扩大成为经济增长的源泉。以人工智能为代表的新技术革命冲击使劳动力市场复杂多样且影响深远，需从生命周期的全局出发，加快构建针对青年、农民工和女性劳动者等重点人群的就业支持体系。
促进老年劳动参与是退休年龄人口高质量发展的战略之举。从世界应对人口老龄化的实践看，中国老年劳动参与率低于全球水平。应建立健全老年就业服务体制机制，充分利用中国丰富的老年人力资源，为深度老龄化做好政策准备和制度保障。
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