应对气候变化报告（2024）
中文摘要
2023年是有气象记录以来最暖的一年，温室气体浓度、海洋热量和酸化、海平面上升、南极海洋冰盖和冰川退缩等方面的纪录再次被打破，有些纪录甚至被大幅度刷新。热浪、洪水、干旱、野火和迅速增强的热带气旋，使数百万人的日常生活陷入困境，并造成了数十亿美元的经济损失。为应对气候变化，绿色低碳发展已经成为国际共识。碳达峰碳中和目标驱动新质生产力发展，加快绿色转型。《应对气候变化报告（2024）：“双碳”目标驱动新质生产力发展》首先对近年气候变化形势进行了分析与展望，介绍了气候变化科学新认识，其次展示了国际气候进程，梳理了国内政策和行动，分析了行业和城市应对行动等，最后收录了2023年全球、共建“一带一路”区域和中国气候灾害的相关统计数据，供读者参考。
本书认为，第一，全球变暖持续，全球高温不断刷新纪录，2023年的全球近地表平均温度比工业化前（1850～1900年）的平均水平高1.45±0.12°C，2023年是有观测记录以来的174年中最暖的一年。2023年6月至2024年5月全球平均温度比工业化前高1.63°C，温升幅度首次破1.5℃。我国暖湿气候特征显著，暴雨、高温等极端天气气候事件强度屡破纪录，局地、单点灾害重、社会影响大。第二，面对全球各类极端天气气候事件频发强发造成的严重社会经济影响，以及全面落实《巴黎协定》的要求，我们需要采取紧急减缓行动，也需要采取气候适应行动，适应气候变化成为全球各国极为重视的议题。第三，绿色发展是高质量发展的底色，新质生产力本身就是绿色生产力，应加快发展方式绿色转型，助力碳达峰碳中和，发展绿色低碳产业和供应链，构建绿色低碳循环经济体系。以控碳降碳为引领，健全资源环境要素市场化配置体系，对于形成绿色新质生产力、协同推进降碳减污扩绿增长、加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型等具有重要意义。第四，人工智能作为新质生产力，为助力解决全球气候变化问题带来极大机遇。人工智能在气候变化领域的应用及发展潜力巨大，涵盖了资料同化与气候模式改进，气候预测与预估，智能气候治理、减缓和适应，能源管理优化，碳排放监测，极端灾害预警，防灾减灾决策等多个方面。第五，可再生能源电力已成为推动全球能源转型的主力。2023年下半年以来，全球范围内对2030年可再生能源装机容量增至3倍基本达成共识，但想要在不到10年的时间内持续保持可再生能源的高规模增长，各国各地区都面临不同程度的挑战，美欧等力图构建本土产业链以重塑可再生能源制造业格局加剧了挑战的严峻性。
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