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CommonID:DIR_17418460,ID:7418460,SiteID:14,Type:formerAidText,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:201165,name:内容提要,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:7418456,AbstractCH:null,AbstractEN:null,KeyWords:null,EKeyWords:null,SubjectWords:null,LiteratureId:7418461,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:Y,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:null,XmlID:null,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-10-20 09:31:18.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2024-10-31 11:10:59.0,HitCount:0,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:0,DownCount:0,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2016-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:内容提要,ISBN:978-7-5097-9177-6,BookTitle:中国房地产周期波动区域差异研究,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:内容提要,_RowNo:1

CommonID:DIR_17418462,ID:7418462,SiteID:14,Type:formerAidText,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:201166,name:An Analysis about the Regional Differences of Real Estate Cycles in China,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:7418456,AbstractCH:null,AbstractEN:null,KeyWords:null,EKeyWords:null,SubjectWords:null,LiteratureId:7418463,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:Y,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:null,XmlID:null,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-10-20 09:31:18.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2024-10-31 11:10:59.0,HitCount:0,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:0,DownCount:0,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2016-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:Analysis about the Regional Differences of Real Estate Cycles in China,ISBN:978-7-5097-9177-6,BookTitle:中国房地产周期波动区域差异研究,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:Analysis about the Regional Differences of Real Estate Cycles in China,_RowNo:2

CommonID:DIR_17418464,ID:7418464,SiteID:14,Type:formerAidText,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:201167,name:图表索引,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:7418456,AbstractCH:null,AbstractEN:null,KeyWords:null,EKeyWords:null,SubjectWords:null,LiteratureId:7418465,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:Y,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:null,XmlID:null,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-10-20 09:31:18.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2024-10-31 11:10:59.0,HitCount:0,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:0,DownCount:0,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2016-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:图表索引,ISBN:978-7-5097-9177-6,BookTitle:中国房地产周期波动区域差异研究,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:图表索引,_RowNo:3

CommonID:DIR_17418466,ID:7418466,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:201168,name:第一章 绪论,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7418456,AbstractCH:本研究拟从区域差异角度对我国房地产周期波动做出理论解释、经验测度和阶段划分，从而为进一步的房地产周期理论研究、房地产投资决策及房地产相关政策制订提供科学参考。具体而言，本研究所需要解决的主要问题包括5个方面，即为什么会发生房地产周期，或对房地产周期应作何种理论解释；房地产周期区域差异的形成原因或主要决定因素是什么；房地产周期波动是否会反过来对宏观（区域）经济构成影响，其动态特征如何；我国存在什么样的区域房地产周期波动；我国房地产周期波动区域差异的具体表现形式或特征是什么。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:39378,688956,20839,EKeyWords:6846,688957,23797,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7418467,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120161001X20160590001_000_001,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-10-20 09:31:18.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2024-10-31 11:10:59.0,HitCount:39,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7418468,DownCount:10,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2016-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国房地产周期波动区域差异研究绪论,ISBN:978-7-5097-9177-6,BookTitle:中国房地产周期波动区域差异研究,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:,researchorg:,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:,PrizeLevel:,IsExcellence:N,ContentClass:,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国房地产周期波动区域差异研究绪论,_RowNo:4

CommonID:DIR_17418543,ID:7418543,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:201169,name:第二章 基于冲击—传导的房地产周期理论模型,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7418456,AbstractCH:房地产周期理论与经济周期理论有着紧密的联系，这表现在经济周期理论是房地产周期理论的重要理论基础，大量的经济周期理论模型可以直接借鉴和应用到房地产周期的分析之中。本章分析了经济周期的类型划分、经济周期的冲击—传导学说、主要经济周期理论，探讨了房地产周期波动的蛛网模型、房地产周期波动的存量—流量模型、考虑不确定性的楔子模型。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:688971,126055,466373,688973,688975,EKeyWords:688977,315483,688978,688979,688980,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7418544,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120161001X20160590001_000_002,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-10-20 09:31:20.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2024-10-31 11:10:59.0,HitCount:27,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7418545,DownCount:7,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2016-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:基于冲击—传导的房地产周期理论模型,ISBN:978-7-5097-9177-6,BookTitle:中国房地产周期波动区域差异研究,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:,researchorg:,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:,PrizeLevel:,IsExcellence:N,ContentClass:,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:基于冲击—传导的房地产周期理论模型,_RowNo:5

CommonID:DIR_17418598,ID:7418598,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:201170,name:第三章 市场结构、经济基本面与房地产周期的区域差异,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7418456,AbstractCH:为从理论上分析房地产周期区域差异的形成原因或主要决定因素，本章结合中国区域房地产市场特征，构建了基于黏性价格的中国区域房地产市场存量—流量模型。通过动态参数模拟的方法，考察了在不同区域房地产市场中，市场结构及经济基本面因素包括区域经济发展速度、收入弹性、供给弹性、需求弹性、价格调整速度及建设开发周期长度等对房地产周期特征模式的影响。除了区域市场结构与经济基本面因素外，本章还对造成房地产周期区域差异的其他因素作了简要的分析。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:33708,688981,190380,20839,EKeyWords:5659,688982,190382,23797,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7418599,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120161001X20160590001_000_003,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-10-20 09:31:20.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2024-10-31 11:10:59.0,HitCount:40,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7418600,DownCount:16,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2016-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:市场结构、经济基本面与房地产周期的区域差异,ISBN:978-7-5097-9177-6,BookTitle:中国房地产周期波动区域差异研究,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:,researchorg:,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:,PrizeLevel:,IsExcellence:N,ContentClass:,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:市场结构、经济基本面与房地产周期的区域差异,_RowNo:6

CommonID:DIR_17418686,ID:7418686,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:201171,name:第四章 房地产周期波动对宏观（区域）经济的影响,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7418456,AbstractCH:本章在考虑金融信贷市场缺陷所形成的金融加速器效应的基础上，以房地产周期的下降和宏观（区域）经济周期的紧缩阶段为背景，通过动态一般均衡模型分析了房价波动对宏观（区域）经济的影响及宏观（区域）经济波动对房价的反馈。信贷约束模型动态模拟显示，在房地产周期的下降阶段，房价下跌会通过金融加速器效应使总产出加速下滑，但是总产出下降并不会循环反馈到房价上加速房价的下跌，房价有其相对独立的运动规律。外部融资升水模型除得到与信贷约束模型类似的动态模拟结果外，还发现在金融加速器效应的条件下，货币政策调控基本没有效果，财政政策对抑制总产出的下降有一定成效，但是会促使私人投资的下降，对房价下跌也基本没有抑制作用。分析结果表明，房地产市场的大起大落会对宏观（区域）经济带来很大的负面冲击，并且针对这种负面冲击的调控政策要么效力甚微，要么具有较大的副作用。因而，未雨绸缪保持房地产市场的平稳发展，是实现房地产业与宏观（区域）经济良性互动的关键。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:688987,559055,688988,EKeyWords:688957,559058,553547,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7418687,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120161001X20160590001_000_004,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-10-20 09:31:21.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2024-10-31 11:10:59.0,HitCount:37,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7418688,DownCount:15,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2016-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:房地产周期波动对宏观（区域）经济的影响——基于金融加速器效应与动态一般均衡模型的分析,ISBN:978-7-5097-9177-6,BookTitle:中国房地产周期波动区域差异研究,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:,researchorg:,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:,PrizeLevel:,IsExcellence:N,ContentClass:,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:房地产周期波动对宏观（区域）经济的影响——基于金融加速器效应与动态一般均衡模型的分析,_RowNo:7

CommonID:DIR_17418808,ID:7418808,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:201172,name:第五章 主要一线城市房地产周期的测度与划分,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7418456,AbstractCH:

房地产周期波动的测度与阶段划分是房地产周期经验研究的重要内容。根据仲量联行的划分标准，北京、上海、广州与深圳4个城市为我国房地产一线城市。由于这4个房地产一线城市房地产业起步较早，市场发育较为成熟，除广州、深圳外又分属不同的经济区，因而是研究我国房地产周期及其区域差异较好的样本城市。这4个城市占我国房地产总体市场的份额也较大，2007年上海、北京、广州和深圳商品房销售额分别占全国总额的10.3%、8.4%、3.9%和2.6%，研究其周期波动对我国房地产业发展与房地产投资具有较大的参考价值。

基于以上考虑，本章拟以北京、上海、广州与深圳4个房地产一线城市为样本，对我国房地产周期波动做出测度与分析，并对它们的周期差异做初步的简单分析比较。在房地产周期的测度与分析方法方面，本章通过综合运用谱分析、HP滤波及BP滤波分析等方法，避免了众多文献中房地产周期测度与划分的过度主观性与随意性，保持房地产周期经验研究与周期理论的一致性。

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CommonID:DIR_17418979,ID:7418979,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:201173,name:第六章 房价周期的区域差异：以东、中、西部10城市为例,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7418456,AbstractCH:为对房地产周期区域差异做出进一步的检验，从而更深入地揭示我国房地产周期波动区域差异的规律性、表现形式与特征，本章以我国东、中、西部10个重要城市为例，运用交叉谱分析、数据包络分析等方法对区域房价周期的相关性、领先滞后关系、波动性及房价泡沫差异作了测度与实证分析。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:688997,688999,689001,EKeyWords:689004,689005,689006,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7418980,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120161001X20160590001_000_006,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-10-20 09:31:31.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2024-10-31 11:10:59.0,HitCount:55,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7418981,DownCount:7,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:2016-10-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:房价周期的区域差异：以东、中、西部10城市为例,ISBN:978-7-5097-9177-6,BookTitle:中国房地产周期波动区域差异研究,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:,researchorg:,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:,PrizeLevel:,IsExcellence:N,ContentClass:,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:房价周期的区域差异：以东、中、西部10城市为例,_RowNo:9

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