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中国房地产发展报告No.20(2023)

书 名: 中国房地产发展报告No.20(2023)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA’S REAL ESTATE No.20 (2023)
作 者: 中国社会科学院国家未来城市实验室中国房地产估价师与房地产经纪人学会
I S B N: 978-7-5228-1797-2
丛 书 名: 房地产蓝皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  房地产业 房地产市场 土地市场 商品房销售面积 房地产开发投资
出版日期: 2023-06-01

中文摘要

《中国房地产发展报告No.20(2023)》持续秉承客观公正、科学中立的宗旨和原则,追踪中国房地产市场最新动态,深度剖析市场热点,展望发展趋势,积极谋划应对策略。全书分为总报告、专题篇、服务篇、热点篇,对当前房地产市场的发展态势进行全面、综合的分析,并从不同的角度对房地产市场发展进行深度分析,对一些热点问题也进行了探讨。

2022年房地产市场发展的政策背景以稳为主,注重风险防范,宽松的政策基调贯穿全年。从全国房地产市场来看,2022年房地产市场运行的总体特征主要包括:销售市场方面,商品房平均销售价格创1998年以来的最大跌幅,各类物业和各地区平均销售价格皆出现下跌;商品房销售面积大幅萎缩,待售面积增幅快速扩大。租赁市场方面,住房租金涨幅连续四年低于CPI涨幅。土地市场方面,土地成交量减半,土地平均成交价格呈结构性上涨,总体看对地方财政收入产生了较大的影响。投融资方面,房地产开发投资自1998年以来首次呈负增长,自筹资金成为最主要的资金来源。房屋供给方面,房屋新开工面积下降约四成,各类房屋新开工面积均连续三年全线缩减。

2022年,房地产市场供需两端面临冲击和压力,房地产企业投资与开发持续下行,房地产开发企业的投资意愿十分低迷。全国房地产市场的商品房销售面积大幅萎缩,市场需求和购买力不足。房贷提前还款潮风险,加剧了金融乃至整个经济领域的风险。部分三、四线城市房价下跌幅度较大,行业下行压力大,市场回升缺乏有效支撑。“高杠杆、高负债、高周转”经营模式难以为继,部分房企出现流动性危机。新冠疫情对经济的持续冲击前所未有,房地产受到很大挑战。居民置业预期走弱,楼市活跃度恢复不明显。

建议继续助企纾困化解风险,完善住房供给体系。优化住房限购政策,合理支持住房需求。调整城市土地供给政策,推动实现资源优化配置。加大金融扶持力度,优化预售资金监管。降低居民还贷压力,助力化解金融风险。盘活住房存量,优化住房结构。鼓励房企主动营销,优先满足贷款需求。支持住房消费,提升居民信心。

预计2023年住房调控政策和金融环境持续宽松,供给端去库存,需求端购房消费更理性,全年市场温和修复,实现以“稳”为主的供需新平衡。保交楼取得实质性进展之后,消费者对购买新房的观望情绪在很大程度上得到缓解,2022年积压的部分延迟购买需求有望在2023年逐步释放,带动全年新房成交量略高于新的需求中枢。重点城市市场价格预计在二季度企稳。2023年一季度大部分城市新房市场仍处于化解库存阶段,价格有继续调整惯性,随着价格出清,住房成交量在二季度后重回修复通道,价格将逐步企稳。核心城市核心区市场稳中有升。全国整体市场成交量基本稳定,背后是区域结构的进一步分化,头部市场将占据更高的份额。除了城市之间的分化,城市内部分化也将延续,核心区拥有更坚实的人口和产业支撑,其市场份额、价格走势都将表现出更强韧性。根据模型预测,2023年固定资产投资和房地产开发投资增速分别为7.9%和-4.3%,其中住宅开发投资增速为-3.6%;土地购置面积、土地成交价款和成交均价分别下降23.6%、48.9%和33.2%;商品房销售面积和销售额增速分别为-0.3%和5.4%,新建商品房销售均价为9385元/米2,同比上升5.7%,其中住宅销售均价为10036元/米2,同比上升6.6%。2023年,一线城市、二线城市和三线及以下城市新建商品房销售均价将分别上升4.8%、6.9%和5.3%。

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