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中国房地产发展报告No.19(2022)

书 名: 中国房地产发展报告No.19(2022)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA’S REAL ESTATE No.19 (2022)
作 者: 中国社会科学院国家未来城市实验室中国房地产估价师与房地产经纪人学会
I S B N: 978-7-5228-0075-2
丛 书 名: 房地产蓝皮书
关 键 词:  房地产业 经济发展 房地产发展
出版日期: 2022-06-01

中文摘要

《中国房地产发展报告No.19(2022)》继续秉承客观公正、科学中立的宗旨和原则,追踪中国房地产市场最新动态,深度剖析市场热点,展望2022年发展趋势,积极谋划应对策略。全书分为总报告、市场篇、服务篇、热点篇。总报告对当前房地产市场的发展态势进行全面、综合的分析,其余各篇分别从不同的角度对房地产市场发展和热点问题进行深度分析。

2021年,房地产市场调控政策前后变化较为明显。从年初的“三道红线”到9月中国人民银行和银保监会提出“两个维护”,政策风向开始变暖。房地产市场运行呈现以下特点:销售市场方面,商品房平均销售价格涨幅持续回落,下半年市场下行趋势明显,商品房销售面积增幅进一步收窄,住宅待售面积6年来首次增加;租赁市场方面,住房租金微涨,涨幅已经连续3年低于CPI涨幅;土地市场方面,土地购置面积连续3年缩减,成交价格在优质地块、热点城市的带动下结构性上涨;投融资方面,房地产开发投资增幅6年来最低,国内贷款占开发企业到位资金比例创历史新低;房屋供给方面,房屋新开工面积大幅下降,各类物业新开工面积均已连续两年全线下降。

当前房地产市场面临的主要问题是市场信心不足,结构性过剩严重。在房地产市场调控方面,建议进一步完善因城施策目标与手段,改进完善住房需求管控政策,积极化解房地产企业风险,推进房贷利率的合理下调,优化住房交易增值税和个人所得税优惠政策,促进市场信心的恢复和预期的理性化,推动房地产业良性循环和健康发展。在房企发展方面,建议改变“高负债、高杠杆、高周转”的固有发展模式,降低对金融杠杆的依赖程度,防范金融风险传染。在行业发展方面,建议房地产行业各主体把握行业机遇,提升自身综合能力。

2022年,在坚持“房住不炒”目标定位的前提下,面对更为严峻的稳增长形势,“稳地价、稳房价、稳预期”的“三稳”目标的重要性更加凸显,“支持商品房市场更好满足购房者的合理住房需求”将是贯穿全年的主题。展望2022年,房地产调控政策预期持续改善,土地拍卖规则或在2021年三批次基础上持续优化,保证金比例、配套公建等或将有所改善,在“三稳”政策总基调下,土地拍卖市场预计仍将以“稳”为主。随着2021年年底信贷环境的改善以及2022年第一季度信贷额度相对宽松,预计2022年房地产交易市场逐步修复:在第一季度成交量完成筑底的基础上,第二季度成交价格实现止跌;二手房市场率先启动,加快换房需求进入新房市场,带动新房成交量筑底回升,销售端去化加快叠加房企融资压力缓解,房企周转效率回归正常化,资金流动性压力得到实质性缓解,拿地信心逐步恢复带动土地市场修复。预计2022年全国房地产市场将呈现“销售面积增速平稳回落,销售均价小幅上涨,新开工面积持续下降,投资增速明显回落”的特点。

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