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中国房地产发展报告No.17(2020)

书 名: 中国房地产发展报告No.17(2020)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA’S REAL ESTATE NO.17 (2020)
作 者:  潘家华 王业强 董昕 张智
I S B N: 978-7-5201-6626-3
丛 书 名: 房地产蓝皮书
关 键 词:  房地产业 健康发展 房地产市场
出版日期: 2020-06-01

中文摘要

《中国房地产发展报告No.17(2020)》秉承客观公正、科学中立的宗旨和原则,追踪中国房地产市场最新动态,深度剖析市场热点,展望2020年发展趋势,积极谋划应对策略。全书分为总报告、市场篇、服务篇、城市群篇、热点篇。总报告对2019年房地产市场的发展态势进行全面、综合的分析,其余各篇分别从不同的角度对房地产市场发展和热点问题进行深度分析。

2019年中国房地产市场整体上表现出平稳回落态势。首先,在政策层面上有所缓和。年底的中央经济工作会议改变了年中关于“不将房地产作为短期刺激经济的手段”的提法,强调“要坚持房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的定位,全面落实因城施策,稳地价、稳房价、稳预期的长效管理调控机制,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展”。其次,市场销售出现绝对下滑,价格增速回落变缓。市场价格指数在2017年1月达到顶点,随后住宅价格指数增速大幅降至10%以下,之后2年市场价格增幅缓慢收窄。再次,2019年开发投资增速是前高后低,增速逐渐回落,增长乏力。最后,土地购置面积跌幅逐渐缩小,土地市场成交价格波动上行,土地市场逐步回暖。

在新冠肺炎疫情的影响下,当前房地产市场在销售、租赁、土地、企业资金、住房保障等方面都发生了较大的变化,主要表现为:房地产市场成交量锐减,影响远超“非典”时期;住房租赁市场整合加剧,发展多元化;土地市场下行,一线城市成交量在优质地块带动下复苏;资金压力下中小企业难上加难,行业整合加速;老旧小区改造被纳入城镇保障性安居工程,惠民生与扩内需一举两得。

展望2020年,随着新冠肺炎疫情在全球的暴发,美国股市多次出现熔断,全球资产价格暴跌,全球经济面临衰退的风险。在疫情暴发之后,中国经济第一季度呈负增长,同比增速为-6.8%,全年经济增速有可能面临较大幅度的回落。随着国内疫情防控成效不断显现,复工复产进度加快,正常生产生活秩序逐渐恢复,疫情所带来的影响在第二季度会逐渐减弱,特别是前期压抑的一些经济活动会逐步释放,预计第二季度经济运行应该会比第一季度有明显回升。

2020年对于房价的管控依然会继续,“房住不炒”定位不会改变,房地产调控政策的底线思维是“三稳”(稳地价、稳房价、稳预期),既不会放水刺激也不会过度收紧。各地将延续2019年中央“因城施策”号召,政策继续“双向调节”操作趋势。但是“一城一策”作用有可能会被强化。随着疫情结束,部分城市的新房限价有望放松,政策层面对于房价的反弹等也会有更大的容忍度。

随着国内疫情逐步得到控制,宏观政策环境得到改善,过度压制的市场需求集中释放,市场将快速回暖,市场销售和投资将逐步得到修复。由于新冠肺炎疫情对第一季度房地产市场销售的冲击较大,预计全年市场销售将会进一步回落。核心一、二线城市疫情之后将有一波刚需和改善需求有待释放,随着宏观政策环境的改善,市场有望率先回暖。三、四线城市市场仍将面临较大压力。因2019年土地市场基数较低,土地购置面积增速也将从低位缓慢回升,整体降幅会不断收窄,预计年底有可能由负转正。核心一、二线城市因基本面良好,购买力存在支撑,土地市场将持续回暖。三、四线城市因棚改政策收缩,投资风险逐步加大,房企将会更多地将土地储备集中在核心一、二线城市,三、四线城市的土地购置面积将进一步回落。由于新冠肺炎疫情对第一季度房地产开发投资影响较大,预计2020年房地产开发投资增速有可能回落至3%左右的水平。在新冠肺炎疫情中断了市场交易之后,市场行情逐步回暖,市场价格有望保持小幅平稳回落趋势。从具体城市能级看,一线及二线热点城市的市场有望率先回暖,市场刚需和改善需求的集中释放产生一波疫情后销售高潮,市场价格有可能逐步回升。三、四线城市由于上一轮市场需求基本出清,在新冠肺炎疫情的冲击下,短期内市场预期难以得到改善,价格仍有进一步回落风险。

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