2019年世界经济形势分析与预测
书 名： 2019年世界经济形势分析与预测
英 文 名： WORLD ECONOMY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST （2019）
作 者： 张宇燕 孙杰 姚枝仲
I S B N： 978-7-5097-6113-7
丛 书 名：
世界经济黄皮书
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关 键 词： 世界经济形势 经济分析 经济预测
出版日期： 2019-01-01
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中文摘要
2018年世界经济整体增速与上一年持平，但是大多数国家出现了经济增速回落。全球失业率仍然保持低位，充分就业状况和大宗商品价格上涨促使各国通货膨胀率有所提高。同时，世界经济还表现出国际贸易增速放缓、国际直接投资活动低迷、全球债务水平持续提高和金融市场出现动荡等特征。
未来世界经济面临诸多挑战，这些挑战包括：美国经济下行的可能性较大，金融市场可能进一步出现剧烈动荡，各主要国家应对下一轮经济衰退的政策空间受到限制，全球贸易摩擦可能带来较大负面影响，逆全球化措施将阻碍国际贸易和投资的发展。地缘政治风险、民粹主义和民族主义扩张等问题也将影响世界经济的稳定与发展。
预计2019年按PPP计算的世界GDP增长率约为3.5%，按市场汇率计算的增长率约为2.9%。这一预测低于国际货币基金组织和其他国际组织预测。较低的预测主要反映了对于美国经济下行风险、金融市场动荡风险、应对衰退的政策空间受限、贸易摩擦影响以及逆全球化趋势等问题的担忧。
另外，预计2019年大宗商品价格将比2018年略有下降，原油价格将处于65美元/桶左右。
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