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2021年世界经济形势分析与预测

书 名: 2021年世界经济形势分析与预测
英 文 名: WORLD ECONOMY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST (2021)
作 者:  张宇燕 孙杰 姚枝仲
I S B N: 978-7-5201-7656-9
丛 书 名: 世界经济黄皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  世界经济形势 经济分析 经济预测 世界贸易 国际直接投资
出版日期: 2021-01-01

中文摘要

2020年世界经济受新冠肺炎疫情冲击,绝大多数国家国内生产总值负增长、失业率上升、通货膨胀率下降。同时,世界贸易显著萎缩、国际直接投资断崖式下降、全球金融市场大落大起、全球债务水平快速攀升。

2021年世界经济仍可能在新冠肺炎疫情阴影笼罩之下,但经济活动会有所恢复,经济增速会有明显反弹。世界经济的恢复程度和增速反弹力度取决于五个关键的因素,包括新冠肺炎疫情的发展趋势、全球价值链的调整、美国政府的对外经济政策、各国财政货币政策的力度和效果以及全球金融市场的稳定性。

我们预计,2021年世界经济按PPP计算的增长率约为5.5%,按市场汇率计算的增长率约为5.2%,均比2020年上升9.9个百分点。我们预计世界经济有较大幅度反弹的主要原因有:一是各国对疫情的防控能力有所提高,防控策略更加适当,防控物资的生产和准备也更为充分,疫情防控对经济活动的损害程度降低;二是居民和企业对新冠病毒的认识更为充分,自我防范和适应能力更强,疫情期间从事经济活动的安全空间更大;三是疫苗的出现将遏制疫情蔓延并加速经济活动的恢复。

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