2022年世界经济形势分析与预测
书 名： 2022年世界经济形势分析与预测
英 文 名： WORLD ECONOMY ANALYSIS AND FORECAST （2022）
作 者： 张宇燕 孙杰 姚枝仲
I S B N： 978-7-5201-9439-6
丛 书 名：
世界经济黄皮书
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关 键 词： 世界经济形势 经济增长率 资本市场 贸易
出版日期： 2022-01-01
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中文摘要
2021年是全球经济经历第二次世界大战后最大幅度衰退以来进入快速复苏的一年。随着疫苗研发与接种人数增长以及各国不同防疫政策的实施，新冠肺炎疫情第二波冲击对世界经济的损害明显减弱，各国尤其是主要经济体为应对疫情而推出的财政与货币政策也在不同程度上助推了经济复苏。疫情的不确定性和应对政策带来的一些副作用，再加上疫情前便存在的各种问题和各主要经济体未来政策调整的方向与力度，共同构成了影响2022年世界经济走势的基本因素。
本书倾向于认为2021年全球经济增长率为5.5%左右，2022年增长4.5%的可能性较大。
短期看世界经济面临的最大风险是政策风险：主要发达经济体应对通胀、维持经济复苏的货币与财政政策如果调整失当，则会引发资产价格动荡暴跌，同时扼杀脆弱的经济复苏并可能将经济推入滞胀通道。中长期影响因素则包括攀升至历史最高水平的债务、主要经济体人口老龄化趋势加剧、劳动生产率增速迟缓、多边贸易体系改革谈判达成共识困难重重、金融监管持久性存在漏洞、能源转型过程中的非平衡性、经济民族主义特别是资源民族主义抬头等。
我们认为全球经济仍处在中低速增长轨道，未来3～5年世界经济增长率将维持在3%～3.5%，当然各国或地区增速会存在显著差异。
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