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| 书 名： | 数量经济研究（2019年第10卷第1期） | ||||
| 英 文 名： | THE JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS | ||||
| 作 者： | 张屹山 | ||||
| I S B N： | 978-7-5201-4158-1 | ||||
| 关 键 词： | 数量经济学 文集 中国 | ||||
| 出版日期： | 2019-01-01 | ||||
中文摘要
文章列表
当前中国经济步入“新常态”，经济结构性减速诱使我国可能存在步入“中等收入陷阱”的危险，有必要审视生产要素和结构贡献及经济增长效率问题。基于此，本文从不同维度考察我国经济增长的动力机制，并以全要素生产率表征经济增长效率，结合马尔科夫区制转移向量自回归模型，测度不同区制下结构和体制因素的经济效率动力机制。结果发现：生产要素始终是我国经济增长的主要动力，不同维度经济结构对经济增长作用差异明显，是政府而非市场主导经济增长的特征明显；不同时期、不同类型要素对经济增长作用差异明显，尤其是技术进步正向促进作用与市场化影响不断显现；不同层次的经济系统显示出双区制特征，经济维持在“低增长区制”与“高增长区制”的概率大致相同，而不同类型要素和结构对经济增长效率影响也存在差别。这些结果表明，我国经济增长存在周期性和阶段性特征。
,AbstractEN:At present，China's economy is entering the new normal，and the risk of entering the middle-income trap may exist when the economic structural slow down.Therefore，it is necessary to examine the factors and structural contribution and the efficiency of economic growth.Based on this，this paper investigates the dynamic mechanism of China's economic growth from different dimensions，and characterizes the efficiency of economic growth with the total factor productivity，and measures the economic efficiency dynamic mechanism of structure and institutional factors under different regional systems by combining the markov system transfer vector autoregressive model.The results showed：Factors of production have always been the main driving force of China's economic growth.Different economic structures have different effects on economic growth，and the government，rather than the market，has obvious characteristics of economic growth.The effects of different types of factors on economic growth in different periods are obviously different，especially the positive promoting effect of technological progress and the marketization effect.The economic system of the same level shows the characteristics of the two-region system.The probability of maintaining the economy in the “low growth region system” and “high growth region system” is roughly the same，while the influence of different types of elements and structures on the efficiency of economic is also different.These results indicate that China's economic growth has cyclical and phasic characteristics.
,KeyWords:99132,3240,39197,477799,EKeyWords:101843,3205,39199,477800,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10675781,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190202X20185412001_001,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-03-11 17:41:23.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:35:49.0,HitCount:11,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10675785,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"董直庆":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"董直庆（1974- ），男，华东师范大学经济学院教授，主要研究方向为技术进步。
"},"刘备":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘备（1992- ），男，华东师范大学经济学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为技术进步。
"},"Dong Zhiqing":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Bei":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-01-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:分类要素贡献和中国经济增长动力再检验,ISBN:978-7-5201-4158-1,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:分类要素贡献和中国经济增长动力再检验,_RowNo:4全球价值链分工为国际碳减排带来了机遇和挑战，当前文献大多集中于全球价值链分工地位和隐含碳排放的测度问题，尚未对二者的影响机制进行研究。本文运用1995～2011年39个国家的数据，分别构建动态面板模型和面板门槛模型实证分析融入全球价值链对进出口隐含碳排放的直接影响，以及通过规模、结构、技术和环境规制四条传导路径对出口隐含碳排放的间接影响。结果表明，全球价值链分工地位和参与度对进出口隐含碳排放强度的作用方向截然相反，前者的负向作用明显。此外，融入全球价值链对出口隐含碳排放的间接效应均存在双重门槛。随着全球价值链分工地位的提高，规模效应的促进作用越来越小，结构、技术和环境规制效应的减排作用也逐渐显现。据此，建议一国鼓励服务业积极参与全球价值链分工，实现“制造”向“智造”升级，进而通过全球价值链嵌入有效实现贸易隐含碳减排。
,AbstractEN:GVC brings opportunities and challenges for carbon emission reduction.But the existing studies mostly focus on the measurement of GVC's position and the embodied carbon emissions，and lack of analysis of the impact mechanism between them.By using 39 countries panel data from 1995-2011，this paper establishes the dynamic panel model and threshold model to analyze the direct effect of integrating GVC on the embodied carbon emissions，and the indirect effect on the embodied carbon emissions in export through the scale，structure，technology and environmental regulation.The results show that，the GVC's position can reduce the embodied carbon emissions，but the GVC's participation not，and the negative effects of the former are obvious.Moreover，there is a double threshold for integrating the global value chain to the indirect effects of export embodied carbon emissions.With the increase of GVC's position，the scale effect is becoming smaller and smaller，and the effect of CO2 mitigation of structure，technology and environmental regulation is also gradually emerging.Accordingly，it is suggested that a country should encourage the service sector to take an active part in GVC and realize the upgrading of “manufacturing” to “wisdom making”，and then to effectively achieve trade implied carbon emission reduction through embedding global value chains.
,KeyWords:25211,477801,26312,EKeyWords:477802,477803,477804,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10675789,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190202X20185412001_002,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-03-11 17:41:24.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:35:49.0,HitCount:19,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10675792,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"陶长琪":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"陶长琪（1967-），男，江西财经大学统计学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为数量经济学。
"},"徐志琴":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"徐志琴（1994-），女，江西财经大学数量经济学专业硕士研究生，主要研究方向为数量经济学。
"},"Tao Changqi":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Xu Zhiqin":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-01-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:融入全球价值链有利于实现贸易隐含碳减排吗？,ISBN:978-7-5201-4158-1,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:融入全球价值链有利于实现贸易隐含碳减排吗？,_RowNo:5本文利用计算语言学方法构建测度央行沟通的经济状态指数和前瞻指导综合指数，并建立FAVAR模型研究央行沟通政策的宏观经济效应。研究发现：这两个指数能即时地反映利率调整；央行增加对经济“扩张”状态的表述具有短期的产出效应；前瞻指导综合指数冲击对未来利率变化不具有显著影响；紧缩性前瞻指导综合指数冲击也不具有减缓经济增长的效应；经济“扩张”的观点具有显著为从紧货币政策短期“降温”的潜在效应。
,AbstractEN:In this paper，we measure the economic state index and forward guidance index from central bank's communication using tools from computational linguistics，then we employ these measures within FAVAR model to explore their macroeconomic effects.It is found that：These two indexes can capture the adjustment of interest rate instantly；An increase statement of “expansionary” economic state has a short-term output effect；The forward guidance index has no significant effect on future interest rate；Contractionary forward guidance index has no effect on slowing economic growth；Views of economic “expansion” have potential effect of significantly “cooling-down” a tight monetary policy in short run.
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"},"杨璐":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"杨璐（1993- ），女，天津财经大学统计学院硕士研究生，主要研究方向为计量经济学理论及其应用。
"},"缪言":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"缪言（1981- ），通讯作者，女，天津师范大学经济学院讲师，主要研究方向为计量经济学理论及其应用。
"},"Bai Zhonglin":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Yang Lu":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Miao Yan":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-01-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:央行沟通政策有效吗？——一种计算语言学方法,ISBN:978-7-5201-4158-1,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:央行沟通政策有效吗？——一种计算语言学方法,_RowNo:6本文研究经济政策不确定性对企业投资的影响，运用动态随机最优化方法建立经济政策不确定性对企业投资影响的理论模型，分析经济政策不确定性影响企业投资的内在机制，发现经济政策不确定性抑制企业投资，企业投资收益率能够促进企业投资，而受经济政策不确定性影响比较大的企业，其投资抑制程度也比较大。本文采用Baker等发布的中国经济政策不确定性指数和我国上市企业数据实证检验了本文理论模型结论，在此基础上提出促进企业投资的政策建议。
,AbstractEN:The paper studies the effect of influence of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise investment，establishes the theory model of influence of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise investment through dynamic stochastic optimization method，analyses the internal mechanism of influence of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise investment，finds that economic policy uncertainty inhibits enterprise investment but the rate of return on investment can boosts enterprise investment while the enterprise which has a greater effect of influence of economic policy uncertainty presents a relatively higher degree of inhibition.The paper also adopts the EPU index of China published by Baker et al.to verify the conclusion of the theory model established，upon which proposes policy suggestions how to boost enterprise investment more effectively.
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"},"赵新泉":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"赵新泉（1956-），男，河南新野人，中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为数量经济学。
"},"Zhang Yuze":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhao Xinquan":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-01-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:经济政策不确定性对企业投资影响研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-4158-1,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:经济政策不确定性对企业投资影响研究,_RowNo:7本文构建了包含二氧化硫非合意产出的非径向方向性距离函数（NDDF），运用数据包络分析（DEA）方法测算出2005～2014年中国各省级地区的节能减排效率、单一的节能效率和减排效率。研究结果表明，从二氧化硫的角度考量，中国工业经济节能和减排并不一致。然后本文通过面板Tobit模型分析这种不一致性的影响因素。结果表明，经济发展水平对一致性有负向影响，这说明中国正处于以牺牲环境换取经济增长的发展阶段，技术创新带来的“波特效应”还未显现；激励型和命令型环境政策对一致性分别产生负向和正向影响；煤炭消费占比越高，不一致性越强，这预示着能源结构需要优化。
,AbstractEN:In this paper，a non-radial directional distance function（NDDF）is constructed，which includes the non consensual output of sulfur dioxide.The efficiency of energy saving and emission reduction，the single energy saving efficiency and the efficiency of emission reduction of China's provinces areas in 2005-2014 are calculated by using the data envelopment analysis（DEA）method.The results show that from the perspective of sulfur dioxide，China's industrial economy is not consistent with energy conservation and emission reduction.Then，we use panel Tobit model to analyze the influence factors of this inconsistency.The results show that the level of economic development has a negative impact on consistency，which indicates that China is in the stage of economic growth at the expense of the environment，and the “Potter effect” brought by technological innovation has not yet appeared，and the incentive and imperative environmental policies have negative and positive effects on consistency，and the higher the ratio of coal consumption，the stronger the inconsistency，this indicates that energy structure needs to be optimized.
,KeyWords:477812,477813,477814,477815,EKeyWords:477816,477817,477818,477819,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10675815,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190202X20185412001_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-03-11 17:41:25.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:35:49.0,HitCount:8,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10675821,DownCount:1,AuthorInfos:{"刘海英":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘海英（1972- ），男，吉林大学数量经济研究中心教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为经济可持续发展。
"},"钟莹":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"钟莹（1995- ），女，吉林大学商学院数量经济学专业硕士研究生，主要研究方向为经济可持续发展。
"},"Liu Haiying":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhong Ying":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-01-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国工业节能与减排效率一致性及影响因素——基于NDDF-面板Tobit两步法的实证研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-4158-1,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国工业节能与减排效率一致性及影响因素——基于NDDF-面板Tobit两步法的实证研究,_RowNo:8本文试图通过检验模型对市场异象的解释能力比较Q因子模型与Fama和French的因子模型的定价能力。实证研究结果表明在对市场异象的解释上，Q因子模型与Fama-French的五因子模型的表现各有千秋。但总体而言Q因子模型在解释某些市场异象上相较于Fama-French三因子模型与五因子模型解释能力有所提升：对β值效应、综合股票发行效应、应计利润效应、动量效应、B/M效应以及投资效应的解释能力强于Fama-French三因子模型；Q因子模型在波动率效应、应计利润效应、B/M 效应以及投资效应这4个市场异象上表现要优于Fama-French五因子模型。
,AbstractEN:This paper attempts to compare the pricing power of Q-factor model and Fama-French's factor pricing model by examining the model's ability to explain the market's anomalies.The empirical research results show that the Q-factor pricing model and Fama-French five-factor model have their own advantages.In general，Q-factor model has also improved its ability to explain certain market phenomena compared to the Fama-French three-factor model and five-factor model：in Market β，net share issues，accruals，momentum and B/M anomalies，Q-factor model is better than Fama-French three-factor model；in volatility，accruals，B/M and investment anomalies，Q-factor is better than Fama-French five-factor model.
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"},"孟佶贤":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"孟佶贤（1990-），男，甘肃天水人，吉林大学商学院数量经济学博士研究生，主要研究方向为金融数量分析
"},"曲俊雪":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"曲俊雪（1993-），女，河北邯郸人，吉林大学商学院数量经济学硕士研究生，主要研究方向为金融数量分析
"},"Fang Yi":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Meng Jixian":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Qu Junxue":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-01-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:基于市场异象的多因子定价模型比较研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-4158-1,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:基于市场异象的多因子定价模型比较研究,_RowNo:9实体经济是金融发展的根基，筑牢实体经济基础，促进实体经济与金融均衡发展是当前关注的热点。产品市场作为实体经济体现价值的平台，其竞争环境的变化会引起股票市场的波动。基于中国1998～2016年A股市场数据，以行业集中度和市场势力衡量产品市场竞争，采用中介效应和调节效应的检验方法，从特质波动的视角实证分析产品市场竞争对股票收益的作用路径。实证结果如下：过于激烈的产品市场竞争和产品市场垄断都会降低股票收益；产品市场中行业集中度和市场势力都与股票特质波动正相关；产品市场竞争是通过影响特质波动进而影响股票收益的，特质波动调节产品市场竞争影响股票收益强度和方向的作用则不明显。
,AbstractEN:The real economy is the foundation of the development finance，and it is a hot spot to build solid economic foundation and promote the balanced development of real economy and finance.The product market is a platform for the value of the real economy，the change of the competition environment in the product market will cause the fluctuation of the stock market.In order to describe the relationship between product market competition and stock market more clearly，we use the samples of A-share listed companies from 1998 to 2016，measure product market competition through industry concentration and market power，analyze the effect of product market competition on stock returns from the perspective of idiosyncratic volatility，take the method of mediating effect and moderating effect.The empirical results are as follows：both the fierce competition and the monopoly in the product market will reduce stock returns；product market competition affects stock returns by influencing idiosyncratic volatility，but the role of idiosyncratic volatility adjustment the strength and direction of product market competition affect stock returns is not obvious.
,KeyWords:383029,351022,477828,EKeyWords:393846,351027,477829,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10675837,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190202X20185412001_007,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-03-11 17:41:26.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:35:49.0,HitCount:6,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10675847,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"许良超":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"许良超（1986-），女，黑龙江大庆人，东北财经大学金融学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为金融工程。
"},"王志强":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王志强（1965-），男，蒙古族，内蒙古乌海人，东北财经大学金融学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为金融工程。
"},"Xu Liangchao":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wang Zhiqiang":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-01-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:产品市场竞争对股票收益的影响研究——基于特质波动的中介效应和调节效应分析,ISBN:978-7-5201-4158-1,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:产品市场竞争对股票收益的影响研究——基于特质波动的中介效应和调节效应分析,_RowNo:10财务绩效指数用一个数值综合反映公司的财务绩效状况和行业排名，既是投资者投资决策、银行信贷决策、国家宏观政策制定的依据，也是企业自身公司治理水平和内部控制有效性的直观反映。以制造业1648家上市公司2016年数据为样本，构建财务绩效指数并进行指数的影响因素分析，结果显示：财务绩效指数与股权集中度、董事长和总经理兼任、董监高持股比例、董监高薪酬总额、内部控制披露指数正相关，与实际控制人为政府负相关，改变这些影响因素就能达到提升财务绩效指数的目的。
,AbstractEN:Financial performance index uses a number to express comprehensively the company's financial performance and industry ranking.It is not only basis for investment，bank credit and macro policy，but also direct reflection of corporate governance level and effectiveness of the internal control.Financial performance index is constructed and influence factors of index are analyzed in the paper based on data of 1648 listed manufacturing companies in 2016 as samples.The result shows that financial performance index has a positive correlation with ownership concentration，board chairman and general manager concurrently，shareholding ratio and total compensation of directors，supervisors and executives and internal control disclosure index，and has a negative correlation with government control of company.Changing these factors can achieve the goal of improving the financial performance index.
,KeyWords:477830,30735,4502,35410,EKeyWords:477831,25800,38109,177795,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10675850,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190202X20185412001_008,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-03-11 17:41:26.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:35:49.0,HitCount:21,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10675854,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:{"李清":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"李清（1966-），男，吉林大学商学院教授，博士生导师，博士，主要研究方向为会计数据挖掘、会计信息系统及内部控制。
"},"党正磊":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"党正磊（1979-），男，吉林大学商学院博士研究生，齐鲁工业大学（山东省科学院）金融学院讲师，主要研究方向为公司治理与会计理论。
"},"Li Qing":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Dang Zhenglei":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-01-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:上市公司财务绩效指数影响因素研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-4158-1,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:上市公司财务绩效指数影响因素研究,_RowNo:11基于GARCH-MIDAS模型及其扩展模型对我国沪深300指数和经济政策不确定指数的关联性进行检验和分析，发现股市长期波动能够有效地刻画股市的长期波动特征，但相比短期波动而言，股市长期波动相对平稳且具有显著的逆周期特征，基于经济政策不确定性指数所测度的股市长期波动对股市预期波动的整体贡献率相对较低，但是在股市波动的平稳期的贡献较大，是股市波动的重要因素。
,AbstractEN:In this paper，we tests and analyzes the relationship between CSI 300 Index and the economic uncertainty index based on the GARCH-MIDAS model and its extended models.The results show that the long-term fluctuation of the stock market can effectively describe the long-term fluctuation characteristics of the stock market.However，the long-term volatility of the stock market is relatively stable and has significant counter-cyclical characteristics.The overall contribution rate of stock market volatility based on economic policy uncertainty index is relatively low，while the contribution of stock market fluctuation is relatively large，which is an important factor in the stock market volatility.
,KeyWords:477832,356133,477833,EKeyWords:477834,356141,477835,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:10675861,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120190202X20185412001_009,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:jiangshan,AddTime:2019-03-11 17:41:26.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 03:35:49.0,HitCount:9,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:10675867,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"王永莲":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王永莲（1985-），女，吉林财经大学统计学院讲师，主要研究方向为宏观金融计量分析与预测。
"},"刘汉":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘汉（1985-），男，吉林大学商学院副教授，硕士生导师，主要研究方向为宏观计量分析与预测。
"},"Wang Yonglian":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Han":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2019-01-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:基于经济政策不确定性的股市长期波动的混频测度与分析,ISBN:978-7-5201-4158-1,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2019年第10卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:基于经济政策不确定性的股市长期波动的混频测度与分析,_RowNo:12
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