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| 书 名： | 数量经济研究（2018年第9卷第1期） | ||||
| 英 文 名： | The Journal of Quantitative Economics Vol.9 No.1 2018 | ||||
| 作 者： | 张屹山 | ||||
| I S B N： | 978-7-5201-2351-8 | ||||
| 关 键 词： | 数量经济学 中国宏观经济 新型城镇化 能源效率作用机制 中国股票市场 | ||||
| 出版日期： | 2018-04-01 | ||||
中文摘要
《数量经济研究》遵循百花齐放、百家争鸣的方针，坚持理论研究和实践研究相结合、定量分析和定性分析相结合，关注我国社会、经济等领域的重大学科前沿问题，刊登结合中国的实际和现实问题进行深入分析、阐述和探索的高水平研究成果，以加强国内外交流，促进学术繁荣，为数量经济学的理论与应用研究提供平台，为我国的社会主义现代化建设服务。
文章列表
中国经济进入新发展阶段，为有效推进国家治理体系和治理能力的现代化，亟须对中国经济未来走势进行定量化精准预测。本文依据我国现实国情和系统化预测的目标，对相关研究理论与方法进行甄别，重点运用大型结构化宏观经济计量模型建立宏观经济预测系统，并对经济指标进行有针对性的筛选和设定，借此形成模型系统运行的变量体系，最终依据经验数据和综合研判方法给出模型的估计结果。
中图分类号：F062.1 文献标识码：A
,AbstractEN:China's economy has entered a new stage of development.In order to effectively promote the modernization of its national governance and governance capabilities，it is urgent to quantitatively and precisely forecast the future trend of China's economy.The paper is based on the present conditions and systematical forecasting goals of China，to identify the related research theories and methods，and focused on the establishment of macroeconomic forecasting system using large structured macroeconomic econometric models targeted selection and setting of economic indicators to form a system of variables operating system model，and finally based on empirical data and comprehensive evaluation of the model given the estimated results.
,KeyWords:36345,418408,418410,418411,418413,EKeyWords:418415,418416,418417,418418,418419,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9599516,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180402X20175188001_001,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-04-28 10:48:12.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 02:45:25.0,HitCount:45,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9644264,DownCount:17,AuthorInfos:{"陈成":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"陈成（1978-），男，东北财经大学公共管理学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为区域经济学。
"},"万相昱":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"万相昱（1978-），男，中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所副研究员，主要研究方向为数量经济学。
"},"Chen Cheng":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wan Xiangyu":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国宏观经济联立方程模型以及预测,ISBN:978-7-5201-2351-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国宏观经济联立方程模型以及预测,_RowNo:4基于1993年1月至2017年6月我国工业增加值、货币供应量（M1）、社会消费品零售总额、全社会固定资产投资等宏观经济指标，本文利用两步估计法的马尔可夫机制转换动态因子模型（MS-DFM）对我国经济周期进行了测度，并对经济周期的拐点进行了识别。结果显示，经调整后的月度动态因子与季度GDP高度相关，其可以作为月度GDP的替代变量。MS-DFM能够很好地识别我国经济周期的拐点。相较于仅仅利用季度GDP构建MS-AR模型，MS-DFM对经济周期和经济周期拐点的刻画更加灵敏。研究发现，目前我国经济依然处于紧缩期，而供给侧结构性改革将成为经济保持稳定增长的关键所在。
中图分类号：F064.1 文献标识码：A
,AbstractEN:Using the industrial added value，money supply（M1），total retail sales of consumer goods，total fixed asset investment from January 1993 to June 2017，this paper based on the two-step method of Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model（MS-DFM）measure the business cycle and identity the business cycle turning points of China.The results show that the adjusted monthly dynamic factors are highly correlated with the quarterly GDP，which can be used as a replacement variable for the monthly GDP.MS-DFM can identify the turning point of China's economic business cycle very well.Compared to the MS-AR model which only use the quarterly GDP，MS-DFM is more sensitive to describe the business cycle and the it's turning points.It is found that China's economy is still in a tight period，and the structural reform of the supply side will be the key to maintain steady economic growth.
,KeyWords:5692,418422,418423,418424,418425,EKeyWords:31268,418426,418427,418428,418430,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9599523,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180402X20175188001_002,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-04-28 10:48:13.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 02:45:25.0,HitCount:12,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9644265,DownCount:8,AuthorInfos:{"林秀梅":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"林秀梅（1956-），女，吉林大学商学院与数量经济研究中心教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为宏观经济计量。
"},"李青召":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"李青召（1982-），男，吉林大学商学院博士研究生，主要研究方向为宏观经济计量。
"},"历姿彤":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"历姿彤（1995-），女，上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院硕士研究生，主要研究方向为宏观经济计量。
"},"Lin Xiumei":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Li Qingzhao":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Li Zitong":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:基于马尔可夫机制转换动态因子模型对我国经济周期拐点的识别,ISBN:978-7-5201-2351-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:基于马尔可夫机制转换动态因子模型对我国经济周期拐点的识别,_RowNo:5由于利率期限结构中包含未来经济运行的信息，本文首次利用2006年4月到2014年12月中美两国利率期限结构的月度数据，通过动态Nelson-Siegel模型抽取两国利率期限结构的相对水平、相对斜率和相对凸度三个相对因子，基于三个相对因子检验其对人民币兑美元汇率的预测能力。实证研究表明：第一，相对因子模型对汇率在1个月到12个月的预测期具有可预测性，相对水平因子或相对斜率因子增加1%分别导致人民币升值1%和2%，而相对凸度因子增加1%会导致人民币贬值1%；第二，基于CW检验统计量的滚动窗预测表明，在所考虑的各个滚动窗和预测期下，相对因子模型的预测能力优于随机游走模型和非抛补利率平价模型。因此，可以利用利率期限结构中的信息提高预测汇率变动的精度。
中图分类号：F832.5 文献标识码：A
,AbstractEN:Since the term structure of interest rates embodies information about future economic activity，this paper uses dynamic Nelson-Siegel model to extract relative level，slope and curvature based on monthly data of interest rate of term structure of China and United States from April 2006 to December 2014 and analyses forecasting ability of relative factors on RMB to US Dollar exchange rate.The empirical study shows that：first，the relative factors model can predict exchange rate changes 1 to 12 months ahead，1% increase in relative level or slope predicts 1% and 2% annualized appreciation of the Renminbi respectively，1% increase in relative curvature predicts 1% annualized depreciation of the Renminbi； Second，the rolling window forecasting based on Clark-West statistics shows that relative factors model outperforms random walk model and uncovered interest parity model for any given rolling windows and forecasting periods.The results reveal that we can improve the prediction accuracy of exchange rate by use of the information included in term structure of interest rate.
,KeyWords:407841,407842,407843,407844,EKeyWords:407845,407846,407847,407848,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9599528,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180402X20175188001_003,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-04-28 10:48:13.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 02:45:25.0,HitCount:5,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9644266,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"邓明":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"邓明（1982-），男，厦门大学经济学院副教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为应用计量。
"},"吴亮":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"吴亮（1983-），男，阜阳师范学院经济学院副教授，主要研究方向为应用计量。
"},"Deng Ming":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wu Liang":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:利率期限结构是否包含了预测汇率变动的信息？,ISBN:978-7-5201-2351-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:利率期限结构是否包含了预测汇率变动的信息？,_RowNo:6以气候保护为代表的全球性公共品供给一直是个难题，也是学术界研究的热门领域。现有研究多是基于解析优化的方法，虽然能得到一个最优结果，但忽略了主体行为的相互影响和由此引起的不确定性，所以，很多结果只是理论上的最优，很难有现实的指导意义。博弈论和实验经济学不仅从理论上证明了气候保护合作的可能，还考虑了现实中各方参与者的相互影响等因素，并能通过设计相应机制，确保参与者在现实中选择合作策略，以达成气候保护的合作局面。
中图分类号：P467；F742 文献标识码：A
,AbstractEN:The supply of global public goods，represented by climate protection，has always been a difficult problem and a hot topic in academia.Most of the existing studies are based on the method of analytic optimization.Although they can get an optimal result，We ignore the interactions of subject behavior and the resulting uncertainty.So，many results are only theoretically optimal and it is difficult to have a realistic guiding significance.Game theory and experimental economics not only theoretically prove the cooperation possibility of climate protection，but also consider the interactions of the participants in the real world and other factors.And they can design the corresponding mechanism to ensure that the participants in the real world choose the cooperation strategies and achieve a cooperation situation of climate protection.
,KeyWords:196765,407849,99120,351391,418446,EKeyWords:196766,407850,45453,351394,418448,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9599537,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180402X20175188001_004,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-04-28 10:48:14.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 02:45:25.0,HitCount:14,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9644267,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:{"王方军":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王方军（1983-），男，中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所博士后，主要研究方向为博弈论。
"},"王国成":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"王国成（1956-），男，河北经贸大学特聘教授，中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所研究员，博士生导师，主要研究方向为博弈论与实验经济学、经济复杂性分析等。
"},"Wang Fangjun":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wang Guocheng":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:气候保护分析方法比较研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-2351-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:气候保护分析方法比较研究,_RowNo:7资本错配是制约中国地区生产率和经济增长的重要因素，研究资本错配与资本回报率问题对于当前深化改革具有重要的现实意义。本文基于1998～2007年工业企业微观数据，测算了我国31个地区资本错配程度以及资本回报率，比较了各地区间的差异，利用空间计量模型，考察资本错配与资本回报率的关系，并对其影响因素展开实证研究。研究结果表明：地区资本回报率存在显著的空间相互依赖关系；测算得出的直接效应与空间溢出效应比值大约为5∶1；同时还发现，资本错配、政府干预、金融发展会抑制地区资本回报率的提升；所有制结构以及财务结构对其有促进作用。最后，据此提出政策建议。
中图分类号：F820.1 文献标识码：A
,AbstractEN:Capital misallocation is an important factor of restricting productivity and economic growth in China，study the relationship between capital misallocation and return rate of capital has important practical significance on deepening reform currently.Based on the micro data of industrial enterprises in 1998—2007，calculate the misallocation and return on capital of 31 regions in our country，compares the differences of regions，using spatial econometric model，investigate the relationship between the misallocation of capital and the return on capital，and the influence factors on the empirical research.The results show that the region returns on capital has significant spatial interdependencies； figures the spillover effects and space ratio of direct effect is about 5 to 1.At the same time，misallocation also found，the capital，government intervention and financial development could suppress in the ascent of the return on capital，the ownership structure and financial structure has a promoting effect on it.Accordingly，some policy proposals are given.
,KeyWords:407851,407852,310481,340555,EKeyWords:407853,407854,407855,407856,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9599548,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180402X20175188001_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-04-28 10:48:14.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 02:45:25.0,HitCount:21,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9644268,DownCount:7,AuthorInfos:{"徐晔":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"徐晔（1962-），女，江西财经大学统计学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为数量经济学。
"},"熊婷燕":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"熊婷燕（1981-），女，江西财经大学数量经济学专业博士研究生，主要研究方向为数量经济学。
"},"Xu Ye":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Xiong Tingyan":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:资本错配、空间效应与地区资本回报率差异研究——基于空间杜宾模型分析,ISBN:978-7-5201-2351-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:资本错配、空间效应与地区资本回报率差异研究——基于空间杜宾模型分析,_RowNo:8本文利用2007年及2013年中国家庭收入调查数据，度量了收入空间分布变迁下区域间家庭消费差距的程度及变化，并基于无条件分位数回归及RIF回归分解的方法，探究了不同分布城镇居民消费不平衡的形成机制。结果表明，东部、中部间的消费差距超过了东部、西部间的差距水平；收入差距带来的要素效应与异质性消费倾向带来的结构效应均是造成区域间消费不平衡的主要原因；随着收入水平提高，对于中、高消费群体而言，结构效应影响增强，差异的消费倾向有助于缩小区域间中间层人群消费不平衡水平；对于低消费与高消费群体而言，要素效应与结构效应却共同扩大了其区域间差距。
中图分类号：F224.0 文献标识码：A
,AbstractEN:Using the data from 2007 and 2013 Chinese Household Income Project Survey，this paper measures the urban household consumption inequality between regions based on income spatial distribution.According to Unconditional Quintile Regression and RIF regression decomposition，it explores mechanism of consumption inequality respectively at different quintiles.It is found that the disparity between east and middle area exceed that between east and west.The composition effect explained by income gap and the structural effect explained by heterogeneous consumption demand are both important reasons which leads to consumption unbalance between regions.The proportion of consumption disparity explained by structural effect increases with the growth of income in the middle and high consumption quintile，which narrows the gap in middle quintile.However，these two effects increase the disparities in low and high quintiles.
,KeyWords:407857,407858,407859,407860,EKeyWords:407861,407862,407863,407864,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9599555,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180402X20175188001_006,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-04-28 10:48:15.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 02:45:25.0,HitCount:10,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9644269,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"陆地":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"陆地（1989-），女，吉林大学数量经济中心博士研究生，主要研究方向为微观经济计量分析。
"},"孙巍":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"孙巍（1963-），男，吉林大学数量经济研究中心、商学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为微观经济计量分析。
"},"Lu Di":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Sun Wei":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:城镇家庭消费区域不平衡的度量及分析——基于收入空间分布变迁RIF回归的实证,ISBN:978-7-5201-2351-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:城镇家庭消费区域不平衡的度量及分析——基于收入空间分布变迁RIF回归的实证,_RowNo:9采用RTV-VAR模型研究1997年到2017年中国内地股市与美国、英国、日本和中国香港股市之间的多元联动性，在此基础上进一步采用ICA-GARCH-GED模型探究各国（或地区）股市之间的协同波动溢出效应。结果表明，1997年以来中国股市与国际股市联动性呈低-高-低-高的特点，波动溢出同样具有这一特点，并且发现中国进入“新常态”以来，资本市场与世界股市的关联性大大增强，与上述股市之间有双向协同波动溢出。这一研究结论对我国防范资本市场系统性风险，抵御国际股市波动冲击具有重要意义。
中图分类号：F831.51 文献标识码：A
,AbstractEN:In this paper，RTV-VAR model is used to analyze the linkage between Mainland China's stock market and US，UK，Japan and Hong Kong China stock market from 1997 to 2017.On this basis，We further use the ICA-GARCH-GED model to explore the synergistic volatility spillovers the stock markets between national（or ergions）.The results show that since 1997，the characteristics of China's stock market and international stock market linkage was low-high-low-high，as well as the fluctuations .Since China entered the “new normal”，the linkage around world stock markets has greatly enhanced，and the stock markets has two-way synergies volatility spillovers.This study is of great significance for China to prevent systemic financial risks，to withstand the impact of fluctuations in the international stock market，and to maintain the smooth operation of the domestic economy.
,KeyWords:418465,418375,407867,418468,EKeyWords:418470,418471,407869,418473,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9599562,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180402X20175188001_007,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-04-28 10:48:15.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 02:45:25.0,HitCount:43,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9644270,DownCount:9,AuthorInfos:{"陈守东":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"陈守东（1955-），男，吉林大学商学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为金融计量分析。
"},"陈开璞":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"陈开璞（ 1993-），女，吉林大学商学院研究生，主要研究方向为金融计量分析。
"},"Chen Shoudong":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Chen Kaipu":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:全球主要股票市场与中国股票市场的波动溢出效应研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-2351-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:全球主要股票市场与中国股票市场的波动溢出效应研究,_RowNo:10本文构建新型城镇化指标体系，综合评价吉林省新型城镇化水平，利用区制时变的RTV-VAR模型检验吉林省新型城镇化与金融支持关联机制的动态时变特征。结果表明：吉林省新型城镇化与金融支持并没有形成良性互动，金融支持对新型城镇化具有显著的因果影响，而新型城镇化对金融支持的因果影响不显著。在未来发展中吉林省应通过扩大金融规模、提高金融效率、加强制度安排设计来促进新型城镇化与金融支持的协同发展。
中图分类号：F832 文献标识码：A
,AbstractEN:This paper constructs a new urbanization index system，estimates the new urbanization level of Jilin Province comprehensively，and uses the RTV-VAR model with time-varing regime to test the dynamic time-varying characteristics of the correlation mechanism between the new urbanization and financial support in Jilin Province.The results show that the new urbanization and financial support did not form a benign interaction，and financial support has a significant causal impact on new urbanization.However，the causal influence of new urbanization on financial support is insignificant.In the future development，Jilin Province should promote the synergetic development of new urbanization and financial support by expanding the financial scale，improving financial efficiency and strengthening the design of institutional arrangement.
,KeyWords:8614,26191,407870,407871,EKeyWords:24379,27419,407872,407873,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9599571,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180402X20175188001_008,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-04-28 10:48:15.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 02:45:25.0,HitCount:14,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9644271,DownCount:8,AuthorInfos:{"刘琳琳":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"刘琳琳（1982-），女，经济学博士，吉林财经大学金融学院讲师，主要研究方向为金融计量研究。
"},"Liu Linlin":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:新常态下新型城镇化与金融支持动态关联机制及协同发展策略研究——以吉林省为例,ISBN:978-7-5201-2351-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:新常态下新型城镇化与金融支持动态关联机制及协同发展策略研究——以吉林省为例,_RowNo:11本文采用中国家庭追踪调查项目2010年、2012年和2014年的数据，基于相对分布非参数核密度统计方法研究发现：中国家庭收入极化呈现缓和趋势，不同年份之间家庭相对收入分布的变化特征存在差异，但总体上，经济增长是家庭收入分布变化的主要影响因素，其影响效应大于收入分配因素；同时，存在中等收入组家庭向低收入组和高收入组流动的现象，但向低收入组流动的情况更加普遍。未来要保持中等收入群体的持续稳定增长，必须构建有利于中低收入群体的经济增长模式和分配制度。
中图分类号：F328 文献标识码：A
,AbstractEN:This paper uses the China Family Panel Studies data in 2010，2012 and 2014，based on relative distribution nonparametric kernel statistical method，it is found that the family income polarization showed a moderate trend，there were different characteristics in the relative income distribution between different years，but on the whole，the influence of economic growth on income distribution was greater than that of income distribution.There was a phenomenon that the middle income families flow to the high income group，but the middle income group flow to the low income group was more common.In order to maintain the sustained and steady growth of the middle-income groups in the future，we must construct the economic growth mode and distribution system which is beneficial to the low and middle income groups.
,KeyWords:407875,418486,418487,418488,418491,EKeyWords:407877,418492,418494,418496,418497,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9599581,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180402X20175188001_009,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-04-28 10:48:16.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 02:45:25.0,HitCount:31,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9644272,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:{"江克忠":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"江克忠（1974-），男，南京大学社会学院博士后，南京审计大学公共经济学院讲师，主要研究方向为家庭经济学、老龄化与社会保障。
"},"陈友华":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"陈友华（1964-），南京大学社会学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为人口学、老龄化与社会保障。感谢北京大学中国社会科学调查中心（ISSS）提供中国家庭追踪调查项目数据。
"},"Jiang Kezhong":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Chen Youhua":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国家庭收入流动性测度和影响因素分解——基于CFPS数据的实证研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-2351-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国家庭收入流动性测度和影响因素分解——基于CFPS数据的实证研究,_RowNo:12本文采用2000～2015年中国29个省份面板数据，将碳排放作为非合意产出测算了各地区历年能源效率现状。运用面板门槛模型，将经济发展水平、外贸依存度、人力资本和基础设施建设作为代表吸收能力的门槛变量，检验了FDI对碳排放约束下能源效率的技术溢出效应。研究发现：FDI对碳排放约束下的能源效率在4个吸收能力上均存在非线性门槛效应。经济发展水平和人力资本水平越高，FDI对能源效率的技术溢出效果越明显。适度的外贸依存度有助于FDI对能源效率的技术溢出，外贸依存度过高或过低时，FDI技术溢出不存在或不显著。以外贸依存度作为门槛变量，FDI技术溢出与碳排放约束下的能源效率呈现非线性的“倒U形”关系；以基础设施建设作为门槛变量，FDI技术溢出与碳排放约束下的能源效率呈现非线性的“U形”关系；以经济发展水平和人力资本作为门槛变量，FDI技术溢出与碳排放约束下的能源效率呈现正相关关系。
中图分类号：F832.6 文献标识码：A
,AbstractEN:Based on the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 2000 to 2015，the present situation of energy efficiency under carbon-emissions is analyzed.Then，a panel threshold model is constructed to analysis the effect mechanism of FDI technology spillover on energy efficiency by making the economic development level，the dependence degree of foreign trade，the human capital and the infrastructure as the threshold variable.Findings shows that there are significant nonlinear threshold effects in the 4 absorption capacity.The higher the level of economic development and human capital，the more obvious the technology spillover effect of FDI on energy efficiency.Moderate degree of dependence on foreign trade helps FDI to the energy efficiency of the technology spillover.When the dependence on foreign trade is too high or too low，the FDI technology spillover does not exist or is not significant.When the dependence degree of foreign trade is used as the threshold variable，the energy efficiency of FDI technology spillover and the energy efficiency under the constraint of carbon emission presents a non-linear “inverted U” relationship.When the infrastructure construction is used as the threshold variable，the energy efficiency of the FDI technology spillover and the carbon emission constraints presents a nonlinear “U” relationship.When the level of economic development and human capital are used as the threshold variable，FDI technology spillover and carbon emission constraints under the energy efficiency has a positive correlation.
,KeyWords:66557,34995,373948,370087,418506,EKeyWords:31763,4141,197297,370090,417167,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:9599592,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120180402X20175188001_010,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2018-04-28 10:48:16.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2021-11-03 02:45:25.0,HitCount:60,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:9644273,DownCount:22,AuthorInfos:{"江洪":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"江洪（1982-），男，辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院讲师，主要研究方向为低碳经济、节能减排。
"},"韩晓晨":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"韩晓晨（1975-），男，辽宁工程技术大学学报编辑部副教授，硕士生导师，主要研究方向为公司理财与纳税筹划。
"},"Jiang Hong":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Han Xiaochen":{"Address":null,"Affiliation":null,"Email":null,"Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2018-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:FDI技术溢出对能源效率作用机制的空间异质性研究——基于不同吸收能力门槛的实证研究,ISBN:978-7-5201-2351-8,BookTitle:数量经济研究（2018年第9卷第1期）,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:FDI技术溢出对能源效率作用机制的空间异质性研究——基于不同吸收能力门槛的实证研究,_RowNo:13
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