中亚国家发展报告（2021）
书 名： 中亚国家发展报告（2021）
英 文 名： ANNUAL REPORT ON DEVELOPMENT OF CENTRAL ASIA （2021）
作 者： 孙力 高焓迅 李睿思
I S B N： 978-7-5201-8337-6
丛 书 名：
中亚黄皮书
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关 键 词： 社会发展 研究报告 中亚
出版日期： 2021-09-01
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中文摘要
本报告由中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所组织编写。作者是来自中国中亚问题研究机构的专家和学者，书中的见解和理论具有较高的权威性和可靠性，是读者了解和研究中亚及南高加索地区国家形势与国际关系的重要参考资料。本报告由五部分组成，即总报告、分报告、地区专题、中亚与世界和国别形势。
本年度报告的主题是“百年变局与世纪疫情下的中亚”。具体内容体现以下特点。一是具有鲜明的时代特色。在国际格局深度调整的背景下，中亚地区和国家出现诸多新变化：国内政治权力交接出现新情况、政权过渡出现新问题；突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情和第四次工业革命浪潮倒逼中亚国家进行改革；大国陆续推出本国的中亚战略和策略，不断向该地区投入战略资源。二是丰富基础研究。本报告注重利用较为成熟的理论工具，在融汇政治学、经济学、社会学等科学研究方法的基础上，尽可能实现跨学科、跨领域研究，着眼构筑具有中国特色的中亚学科体系、学术体系和话语体系，并服务于中国中亚学派的建设。三是突出应用研究。中亚国家与中国毗邻而居，2020年中亚地区热点事件频发，本报告坚持问题导向、聚焦主攻方向，部分约稿专家提出若干引发深度思考并具有建设性意义的建议。
2020年中亚国家经历了不平凡的一年。中亚国家的政治活动热度不减，多数国家进行了总统和议会选举，个别国家再次陷入政治动荡。自新冠肺炎疫情发生以来，中亚各国采取了封闭措施，特别是俄罗斯新冠肺炎疫情持续恶化，致使中亚各国经济急剧下滑，货币贬值、通货膨胀、失业率上升等问题趋于严重。中亚国家纷纷出台了促经济、保民生的政策。从全年经济指标来看，一些国家经济发展好于预期，这主要得益于各国及时出台了反危机措施，调整了经济发展重点。尽管中亚国家没有发生重大暴力恐怖事件，但极端思想渗透、有组织犯罪活动、毒品走私等安全问题尚没有得到有效遏制。同时，在俄罗斯打工的中亚劳务人员大量回国，带来一些社会问题，加上疫情刺激，社会治安压力增大。2020年中亚国家继续以往的外交政策，积极发展与大国外交关系仍是各国首要的优先方向，既有所侧重，又寻求多元平衡。
展望2021年，中亚国家将迎来独立30年周年。中亚各国在总结30年发展历程的同时，将继续推进政治改革，首先是完善法律基础，为实现国家发展战略创造良好环境；其次是稳步落实国家经济发展战略，尽快实现全面复工复产，落实好经济发展目标；再者，继续严厉打击恐怖主义、极端主义、毒品走私、有组织犯罪活动等，维护国家的稳定大局；最后，仍将延续大国平衡的务实外交，积极开展地区国家间合作。总体上看，中亚国家在各领域的发展将是总体向好的趋势。
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