2026年世界经济形势分析与预测
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中文摘要
2025年,世界经济艰难复苏,增长动力不足且走势分化。全球经济增长率约3.2%,主要由新兴市场拉动;发达经济体中美国经济增速快于欧元区。全球通胀仍处高位,且有较强黏性。全球债务攀升至338万亿美元新高,新兴市场风险尤甚。劳动力市场结构性矛盾突出。主要央行货币政策立场迥异。在这些表现的背后,地缘政治与科技革命正深刻重塑全球经济版图,引发一系列更深层问题,包括以人工智能为核心的科技变革重塑生产方式、全球产业链逆效率重构、国际货币体系深度调整等。在短期挑战与长期结构性问题的双重影响下,预计2026年全球经济增长将放缓至3.0%。在此局面下,中国经济有望继续平稳运行,为世界经济复苏注入宝贵的稳定力量。
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