中国文化产业供需协调检测报告（2017）

基于1995～2015年的增长，本报告以扩大人民群众文教消费需求和促进城乡、区域共享为目标，检测了2015年全国城乡文教消费需求总量应有空间：供需协调性测算为26269.34亿元，消除负相关测算为34995.68亿元，最佳比例值测算为41097.96亿元，最小城乡比测算为41097.96亿元，弥合城乡比测算为56833.23亿元，城乡无差距测算为85611.17亿元，地区无差距测算为110791.89亿元，实际总量仅为24036.45亿元。

全国城乡文教消费需求相关方面的增长差距一目了然：一方面在于经济增长与基本民生、文化民生增进的协调性差距，另一方面在于城乡之间、地区之间民生与文化民生增进的均衡性差距。文化产业的发展空间必须从增强“内生动力”中拓展出来，文化产业成为支柱性产业本身并不是目的。

在以上分析的基础上，测算了2020年全国文教消费总量增长空间：历年均增值目标为43540.34亿元，供需协调性目标为59027.34亿元，消除负相关目标为68354.93亿元，最佳比例值目标为73323.78亿元，最小城乡比目标为72512.43亿元，弥合城乡比目标为93733.27亿元，城乡无差距目标为152740.77亿元，地区无差距目标为197109.26亿元。

按照1995～2015年的增长，检测至2020年，各省域文教消费增长目标的距离排行：历年均增值测算前5位为甘肃、贵州、河南、青海、陕西；消除负相关测算前5位为河北、河南、贵州、青海、江苏；最佳比例值测算前5位为河北、河南、山西、黑龙江、辽宁；最小城乡比测算前5位为山西、河北、河南、黑龙江、辽宁；弥合城乡比测算前5位为山西、黑龙江、河北、河南、辽宁；城乡无差距测算前5位为黑龙江、上海、辽宁、甘肃、河南；供需协调性测算前5位为甘肃、山西、云南、贵州、湖南。

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总报告

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技术报告与综合分析

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省域报告

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书名：	中国文化产业供需协调检测报告（2017）
英文名：	ANNUAL EVALUATION REPORT ON THE COORDINATED SUPPLY-DEMAND OF CHINA’S CULTURAL INDUSTRY （2017）
作者：	刘婷方彧王亚南赵娟祁述裕向勇张晓明
I S B N：	978-7-5201-0365-7
丛书名：	文化蓝皮书订阅
关键词：	文化产业供需平衡协调发展
出版日期：	2017-02-01