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中国文化消费需求景气评价报告(2021)

书 名: 中国文化消费需求景气评价报告(2021)
英 文 名: ANNUAL EVALUATION REPORT ON CHINA’S CULTURAL CONSUMPTION DEMAND (2021)
作 者:  王亚南 张晓明 祁述裕向勇 赵娟 方彧 魏海燕
I S B N: 978-7-5201-8416-8
丛 书 名: 文化蓝皮书
关 键 词:  文化生活 消费 顾客需求
出版日期: 2021-06-01

中文摘要

1999~2019年,全国城乡居民文教消费总量由3810.37亿元增至36217.68亿元,增加32407.31亿元,20年间总增长850.50%,年均增长11.92%。最高增长年度为2002年,增长27.28%;最低增长年度为2008年,增长4.10%。同期,全国城乡文教消费人均值由304.16元增至2591.21元,增加2287.05元,20年间总增长751.92%,年均增长11.31%。在此期间,31个省域城乡文教消费总量年均增长均超过10%;27个省域城乡文教消费人均值年均增长超过10%。正是各省域城乡文教消费需求高增长,带来了全国总体城乡文教消费需求的高增长。

2019年,全国城乡居民文教消费需求继续保持高增长:总量增长13.60%,人均值增长13.19%。以人均值衡量,文教消费年度增长显著高于产值增长,也显著高于城乡居民收入增长,亦显著高于居民总消费增长,且明显高于居民积蓄增长。全国文教消费城乡比指数比上年缩小1.72%,地区差指数比上年扩大0.29%。城乡差距、地区差距正是我国“不平衡不充分的发展”最具代表性的方面。

各省域城乡综合文教消费需求景气评价排行结果:城乡、地区无差距理想值横向测评,黑龙江、湖南、吉林、宁夏、甘肃为“2019年城乡景气指数排名”前5位;历年各地自身基数值纵向测评,西藏、河南、贵州、青海、甘肃为“1999~2019年城乡景气提升度”前5位;西藏、云南、河南、贵州、海南为“2004~2019年城乡景气提升度”前5位;贵州、西藏、云南、广西、新疆为“2009~2019年城乡景气提升度”前5位;西藏、广西、山东、安徽、天津为“2014~2019年城乡景气提升度”前5位;黑龙江、浙江、安徽、贵州、江西为“2018~2019年城乡景气提升度”前5位。

按照1999~2019年增长,检测至2020年各省域文教消费增长目标的距离排行:历年均增值测算前5位为河南、贵州、宁夏、甘肃、山西;消除负相关测算前5位为黑龙江、河南、河北、海南、天津;最佳比例值测算前5位为黑龙江、河北、河南、吉林、辽宁;最小城乡比测算前5位为黑龙江、河北、河南、吉林、辽宁;弥合城乡比测算前5位为黑龙江、河南、河北、吉林、辽宁;城乡无差距测算前5位为黑龙江、吉林、天津、辽宁、河北;供需协调性测算前5位为黑龙江、吉林、甘肃、湖南、辽宁。

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