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中国房地产发展报告No.16(2019)

书 名: 中国房地产发展报告No.16(2019)
英 文 名: ANNUAL REPORT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA'S REAL ESTATE No.16 (2019)
作 者: 潘家华王业强董昕尚教蔚
I S B N: 978-7-5201-4785-9
丛 书 名: 房地产蓝皮书 订阅
关 键 词:  房地产业 住宅市场 商业地产市场 住房租赁行业 房地产投融资 中国
出版日期: 2019-05-01

中文摘要

在经历了2017年“最严调控年”之后,2018年中国房地产市场表现出政府调控与市场供需的多方博弈态势。具体体现在:住宅投资增速进一步加快,与商办类投资分化进一步加大,房地产开发投资在区域间增长不平衡;土地购置面积、成交价款、平均售价等指标增速均不同程度回落;房屋新开工面积增速上扬、竣工面积增速下降;商品房销售面积增速大幅回落,销售价格增速出现反弹;房企资金承压上升。同时,仍面临以下突出问题:房地产市场不确定性加大;中小城市的市场风险有所提升;土地流标数量明显增加;供需双方融资难度加大;租房市场或面临集体土地租赁住房冲击。

展望2019年,在稳健货币政策下,央行将有可能从流量、流向以及期限等多个维度对经济进行有效“滴灌”,进一步提升组合型政策工具对市场的传导效率,防止“大水漫灌”。但货币政策进一步放松的空间逐渐缩小,对楼市的刺激作用有限,加之“房住不炒、因城施政”的调控思路并未发生根本改变,房地产调控政策基调为:维稳、分化、放权。预期2019年房地产市场平稳调整态势不会发生实质性的转变,商品住房销售增速可能会延续放缓趋势,房价涨幅整体回落,土地交易市场将回归理性,房地产投资增速将进一步回调。

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