中国房地产发展报告No.18（2021）
中文摘要
《中国房地产发展报告No.18（2021）》继续秉承客观公正、科学中立的宗旨和原则，追踪中国房地产市场最新动态，深度剖析市场热点，展望2021年发展趋势，积极谋划应对策略。全书分为总报告、分报告、区域篇、热点篇。总报告对当前房地产市场的发展态势进行全面、综合的分析，其余各篇分别从不同的角度对房地产市场发展和热点问题进行深度分析。
2020年，尽管受到疫情强烈冲击，但中国房地产市场表现出很强的韧性。年末各项指标均恢复到较好水平，部分指标甚至超过疫前水平。投资、资金与开发建设增速前低后高，年末恢复至合理预期水平，市场销售显著超出预期，全国销售均价总体稳定与城市间市场景气度分化并存，土地市场热络但区域分化趋势明显。与此同时，市场分化进一步加强，房贷利率倒挂，住房租金出现1998年来的首次负增长，由此租售价差进一步被拉大。房地产金融监管则不断强化，土地市场“两集中”的供给新规出台，房地产企业经营将面临新挑战。随着相关政策措施接连出台，老旧小区改造与城市更新成为房地产业的热点。在新冠肺炎疫情以及宏观经济环境不确定性加剧的影响下，城市群、都市圈将迎来新发展。
2021年，全球经济仍将继续处于低利率和流动性相对充裕的环境，短期难以改变。各国经济增速有着明显反弹，全球经济复苏仍不稳定。如何有效应对全球流动性泛滥的溢出效应，是中国面临的主要风险与挑战。但是，房地产行业仍是中国经济的压舱石和稳定剂。房地产金融监管将持续强化，继续坚持“稳”字当头的政策调控基调，调控政策更加精细化、完备化。租赁市场发展受到政策关注程度进一步增强。受全球货币宽松和低利率政策影响，2021年房地产市场将面临较大的上涨压力。市场风险不断加大，分化趋势日益明显，房地产行业面临重新洗牌。政策调控趋紧遏制市场过热冲动，房地产仍是当前市场上最有价值的保值增值工具。
展望全年，中央经济工作会议中指出“2021年宏观政策要保持连续性、稳定性、可持续性，要保持对经济恢复的必要支持力度，政策操作上要更加精准有效，不急转弯，把握好政策时度效”，预计2021年国内货币政策将在经济回升的过程中，逐步回归中性，整体流动性将保持稳定。房地产行业将转向稳杠杆乃至去杠杆，牢牢守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线。房企整体融资环境或将持续偏紧，“三道红线”将持续发力，房企去杠杆、降负债已是大势所趋。居民部门仍需稳杠杆，确保居民杠杆率和负债率不再继续上升。集中供地制度进一步规范土地市场发展，维持土地市场价格稳定。
总之，全年房地产行业将继续保持平稳运行，商品房销售规模将再创新高，突破18亿平方米；土地购置面积小幅回落，土地成交均价将快速恢复到疫前水平；新开工面积预期创出历史新高，总量达24亿平方米左右，但竣工面积较2020年略有下降；受疫后全球经济快速恢复影响，房地产开发投资将保持快速增长态势，全年预期保持14%左右的高速增长；销售均价全年保持万元以上新高度，全年预期实现7.7%左右的增长水平。一、二线热点城市价格将保持平稳上行，限贷政策仍将持续，不排除进一步加码升级的可能性。购房资金监管继续加强，严查首付款资金来源，严防首付贷、消费贷、经营贷等违规挪用于购房消费；三、四线城市面临较大的经济恢复压力，限贷政策或将适度放松，具有城市群和大都市圈概念的中小城市房地产市场将迎来新的机遇。
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