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2016年中国经济前景分析

书 名: 2016年中国经济前景分析
英 文 名: ANALYSIS ON THE PROSPECT OF CHINA’S ECONOMY (2016)
作 者:  李扬 李平 李雪松 张平
I S B N: 978-7-5097-9101-1
丛 书 名: 经济蓝皮书春季号 订阅
关 键 词:  小康社会 经济预测 发展趋势 研究报告
出版日期: 2016-06-01

中文摘要

2015年中国经济增长总体平稳,经济结构继续优化,转型升级加快。就业基本保持稳定,新经济吸纳就业增多。尽管目前我国经济面临下行压力,但经济持续增长的支撑基础和良好条件没有改变;2016年积极财政政策将加大力度,稳健货币政策将更加灵活适度;房地产投资正触底企稳;以新技术、新产业、新业态、新商业模式为代表的经济增长新动力正在加速形成。在国内宏观调控坚持稳中求进的背景下,经济运行的内在稳定性正在不断巩固和增强,预计2016年中国经济增长6.6%~6.8%。

2016年是中国“十三五”规划的开局之年,也是全面建成小康社会决胜阶段的开局之年。由于中国经济依然面临着结构性减速压力,宏观政策需要提供一个比较宽松的政策环境。积极财政政策需兼顾需求侧和供给侧管理的平衡。在经济存在下行压力时,加大积极财政政策的实施力度仍是宏观调控的重要措施。积极财政政策在短期适度扩大总需求的同时,应着力促进中长期供给侧结构性改革,促进经济发展动力顺利转换。

实现2016年经济增长的预期目标,不仅积极财政政策要加大力度,稳健货币政策要更加灵活适度,还要着力推动供给侧结构性改革,释放经济增长新动能。一要大力发展新经济,推动战略性新兴产业更好更快发展;二要深化供给侧结构性改革,大力促进消费升级和现代服务业发展。

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课题总负责人:李扬;执行负责人:李平、李雪松、张平;执笔人:李雪松、张涛、樊明太、娄峰、王文波;参加起草的还有:李文军、胡洁、蒋金荷、万相昱;李军、张延群参加了讨论。

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预计2016年作为“十三五”的开局之年,依然保持6.6%以上的增长,物价平稳。“十三五”时期是供给侧结构性改革的关键时期,创新驱动靠“十三五”时期积极调整结构才能逐步推动中国创新发展并成功跨越中等收入陷阱。应积极采取供应侧结构性改革,进一步解放生产力,特别是提升创新劳动的积极作用,强化市场化改革,激励创新,淘汰“僵尸企业”,促进现代服务业打开创新空间,有效地调动各方积极性,促进中国经济成功转型。

,AbstractEN:

China’s economic growth rate is expected to more than 6.6% in 2016. “Thirteen Five” period is the critical period of the supply side structural adjustment. Only if the government actively adjusts the policies,we can lay the foundation for the innovation-driving,and promote the China successfully across the middle-income trap.

Supply side structural reforms should be taken to further liberate productive forces. Especially,the positive role of innovative labor must be promoted. The market reform must be strengthened,and the “zombie enterprise” must be eliminated. The modern service industry must be relaxed to open innovation space. Thus the enthusiasm of all parties can be effectively aroused,and China’s economy can be promoted the transformation successfully.

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张平,中国社会科学院经济研究所副所长,研究员。

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2013年9月,我国经济增长开始进入新一轮增长周期波动的缓慢下降期,截止到2015年底此轮周期的谷仍未出现,总体呈现下降时间长、低位运行的态势。本文基于长/短先行合成指数(扩散指数)在本轮景气波动中的特征,以及对2015年主要经济数据的分析,预计我国经济景气波动的谷底将在2016年第1季度出现,从第2季度开始有望止跌企稳,之后大体维持微幅上升的变动趋势。考虑到当前我国经济正处于由高速向中速增长的转换时期,拉动经济回升的主导力量尚未形成规模,经济下行压力依然较大,因此,本文预计2016年全年GDP增长率将达到6.8%左右,CPI为2%左右,PPI仍难以摆脱负增长的局面。这需要政府梳理整合各项政策,聚焦供给侧,重视需求端,长期政策和短期政策协同作战,为2016年经济景气回升提供长效动力。

,AbstractEN:

Since September 2013,China’s economic growth has begun to enter a new growth cycle fluctuation of slow decline. But the cycle round valley has notyet been seenby the end of 2015. It shows a overall posture of long declining and low running. On the basis of Long/Short Leading Composite Index(diffusion index)in the current round of climate fluctuation and the analysis of the economic data in 2015,this paper forecast that the bottom of China’s economic fluctuations will occur in the first quarter of 2016,and the fallingtrend will stop from the second quarter,after thatChina’s economy will rise slightly. Given the current economy growth is transforming from high speed to medium speed,the leading force of pulling economic recovery has not yet formed the scale,and the economic downward pressure is still large. Therefore,the full-year GDP growth in 2016is expected to reach 6.8%,and CPI is expected to rise about 2%,and PPI will still keep negative growth. ToProvide long-term motivation for economic recovery in 2016,the government need to integrate policies,focus on the supply side,attach great importance to the demand side.

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陈飞,经济学博士,东北财经大学经济学院教授,数量经济系系主任。

"},"范晓非":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

范晓非,经济学博士,东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院助理研究员。

"},"高铁梅":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

高铁梅,东北财经大学经济学院教授,博士生导师,东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心副主任。

"},"Chen Fei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Fan Xiaofei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Gao Tiemei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2016年中国宏观经济波动及走势的分析与预测,ISBN:978-7-5097-9101-1,BookTitle:2016年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2016年中国宏观经济波动及走势的分析与预测,_RowNo:8
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2015年我国工业生产总体上保持了中高速增长,产业结构调整取得了积极进展。分析我国工业经济面临的突出问题和深层次原因,可获得四方面主要结论:一是传统增长动力难以持续,而新的动力尚未成为主导力量;二是产能过剩的根本原因在于转型升级不畅;三是企业活力不足的原因在于经济运行机制失调;四是制造业成本上升的巨大压力主要来源于西方国家的技术创新和商业模式创新。为推动我国工业经济平稳较快增长,应实施创新驱动战略、促进消费升级、拓宽投资领域、深化体制机制改革。

,AbstractEN:

In 2015,China’s industrial production growthmaintained a medium and high speedin the overall,and industrial restructuring made positive progress. This paper analyzesthe prominent issues and deep-seated reasons for China’s industrial economy,then obtain the main conclusion including four aspects. Firstly,traditional growth dynamics isunsustainable,and the new power has not yet become a dominant force. Secondly,the root cause of overcapacity is that transformation and upgrading is not free. Thirdly,Enterprises lack vitality because of the disorders ofeconomic operation mechanism. Fourth,the pressure forrising manufacturing costs mainly comes from technical innovation and business model innovation in western countries. In order to promote China’s industrial economy grow steadily and rapidly,we should push forward innovation-driven strategy,promote consumption upgrade,expand the area of investment,and deepen the reform of institutional mechanisms.

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原磊,中国社科院工业经济研究所工业经济运行研究室副主任,副研究员。

"},"金碚":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

金碚,中国社科院学部委员,研究员。

"},"Yuan Lei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Jin Bei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:当前中国工业经济形势及政策分析,ISBN:978-7-5097-9101-1,BookTitle:2016年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:当前中国工业经济形势及政策分析,_RowNo:9
CommonID:DIR_17204273,ID:7204273,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:197909,name:B.5 就业形势、劳动力市场发展与供给侧改革,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.5 Employment Situation,Labor Market Development and Supply-side Reform,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7204034,AbstractCH:

劳动力市场的基本稳定和发挥要素配置功能是劳动力市场建设的两个目标。后一个目标对于社会经济的中长期发展以及供给侧改革,具有更重要的意义,因此劳动力市场的改革与发展,应该成为供给侧结构性改革的重要组成部分。在目前的就业情况下,中国应该着眼于应对和解决结构性就业矛盾。为此,需要进一步培育劳动力市场,坚持市场化配置劳动力资源;通过教育和培训加快人力资本积累速度,化解劳动力市场上的结构性矛盾;适应就业岗位的创造性破坏过程;更公平地提供基本公共服务,用社会政策为灵活高效的劳动力市场托底。

,AbstractEN:

Keeping labor market stability and displaying elements configuration function are the two goals of construction of the Labor market. The second goal is of more important significance for the medium and long-term development of social economy and the reform of the supply side. So the Labor market reform and development should be an important part of the supply side structural reforms. In the present employment situation,China should aim to solve the structural contradiction of employment. Firstly we need to further develop the labor market,and adhere to the market allocation of labor resources. Secondly,we need to speed up the accumulation of human capital through education and training,to dissolve the structural contradiction in the labor market. Finally,we need to adapt to the employment process of creative destruction,and to provide basic public services more fairly.

,KeyWords:29266,6361,325378,2786,EKeyWords:31598,335678,325694,2787,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7204274,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201601010010733_000_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-07-12 08:42:38.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 13:43:17.0,HitCount:51,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7204275,DownCount:27,AuthorInfos:{"蔡昉":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"都阳":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Cai Fang":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Du Yang":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:就业形势、劳动力市场发展与供给侧改革,ISBN:978-7-5097-9101-1,BookTitle:2016年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:就业形势、劳动力市场发展与供给侧改革,_RowNo:10
CommonID:DIR_17204305,ID:7204305,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:197910,name:B.6 劳动报酬份额变化与个人所得税改革,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.6 The Change of Labor Compensation Share and the Reform of Personal Income Tax,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7204034,AbstractCH:

我国个人所得税制度对工薪所得征缴力度大,而对资本类、财产类所得征缴力度不足,从而使得工薪所得的课税占个人所得税的比重不断增加。这种状况在我国劳动报酬份额依然偏低的情况下进一步加剧了收入分配的不公平。个人所得税改革应在实施综合与分类相结合税制的基础上,大幅度提高工薪所得的起征点,减轻工薪劳动者的税负负担,从而实现更加公平的分配。

,AbstractEN:

China’s personal income tax is collected mainly from wage income,but less from the capital and property income. So it makes the wage income tax accounted for the increasingly big proportion of individual income tax increases. Under the condition that labor remuneration share is still low,this situation in China intensifies the unfair income distribution. On the basis of the implementation of comprehensive and classified tax system,personal income tax reform should greatly improve the wage income tax threshold,and reduce the tax burden on wage earners,then to achieve a more equitable distribution.

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张车伟,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所所长,研究员。

"},"赵文":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

赵文,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所助理研究员。

"},"Zhang Juwei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhao Wen":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国劳动报酬份额变化与个人所得税改革,ISBN:978-7-5097-9101-1,BookTitle:2016年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国劳动报酬份额变化与个人所得税改革,_RowNo:11
CommonID:DIR_17204335,ID:7204335,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:197911,name:B.7 经济结构调整对税收影响研究,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.7 The Research on the Impact of Economic Structure Adjustment on Tax Revenue,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7204034,AbstractCH:

依据中国近年产业结构及行业结构中的经济与税收状况,分析了产业结构调整及产业税负变化对税收收入的影响,同时,分析了行业经济结构调整及行业税负变化对税收收入的影响。找出了影响税收收入的主要产业和行业,并进行了深入分析。提出了未来产业和行业发展的政策建议。

,AbstractEN:

According to China’s recent industry structure and the situation of economy and tax in the sector structure,this report analyzes the impact of the industrial structure adjustment and industry tax changes on the tax revenue,and the impact of the sector economic structure adjustment and tax changes on the tax revenue. Then,this report finds out the main industry and sector which influence the tax revenue,and carries out thorough analysis. Finally,this report puts forward the policy suggestions on the development of the future industry and the sector.

,KeyWords:43174,5188,4693,2786,EKeyWords:90378,20167,53135,2787,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7204336,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201601010010733_000_007,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-07-12 08:42:40.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 13:43:17.0,HitCount:34,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7204337,DownCount:19,AuthorInfos:{"付广军":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

付广军,国家税务总局科研所研究员。

"},"Fu Guangjun":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国经济结构调整对税收影响研究,ISBN:978-7-5097-9101-1,BookTitle:2016年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国经济结构调整对税收影响研究,_RowNo:12
CommonID:DIR_17204420,ID:13551413,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:197912,name:B.8 2016年中国对外贸易曲折发展,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.8 China’s Foreign Trade in 2016:A Tortuous Developing Process,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7204034,AbstractCH:

2015年中国对外贸易呈现双速下降,但货物贸易净出口大幅增加对2015年经济增长的贡献占1/3份额,创造了一项历史奇迹。2016年外贸面临严峻考验,世界经济存在两种可能:一种是保持弱势复苏,另一种是陷入同步衰退。我们预计2016年以人民币计价的中国对外贸易增长也将出现两种结果:一种是降幅收窄,另一种是降幅扩大。客观评价对外贸易,需要区分出口和进口。中国对外贸易出口增长的数量和质量都在稳步提高,出口额下降的原因主要是汇率因素“作怪”,无需过分忧虑。

经济学中对一国进口的评价,首要标准为进口是否满足国民经济发展的需要,其中,尤其应该重视能源、重要战略资源供应是否安全、可靠。其次是购买同样数量和质量的进口产品,支付的价格是高还是低。支付价格越低,表明进口收益越大。

,AbstractEN:

China’s foreign trade in 2015 exhibited double-speed downtrend,but a substantial increase in net exports of goods trade pulled one-third of economic growth in 2015,which created a historic miracle.

International trade in 2016 is facing severe test. There are two possibilities in the development of the world economy:one is that the recovery remains weak,the other is that the word economy is caught in a synchronized downturn. We expect RMB-denominated China’s foreign trade value in 2016 will either decline more slowly or more rapidly than in 2015. Objective evaluation of foreign trade requires the distinguishment of exports and imports. The quantity and quality of China’s export growth have been steadily improving and there is no need to worry about China’s export trade since the exchange rate factor was the “culprit” of the decline in China’s exports.

The primary criterion in the valuation of a country’s import trade is that whether the imports can meet the needs of national economic development. Firstly,special attention should pay to energy and the safe and reliable supply of important strategic resource. Secondly,when purchasing the same quantity and quality of imported products,whether the prices paid are high or low?The lower the prices,the greater import revenues are. Using this criterion to evaluate the 2015 Chinese import trade,we will draw completely different conclusion from the media.

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金柏松,独立经济学家。

"},"刘建颖":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

刘建颖,商务部研究院副研究员,经济学博士。

"},"Jin Baisong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Jianying":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2016年中国对外贸易曲折发展,ISBN:978-7-5097-9101-1,BookTitle:2016年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2016年中国对外贸易曲折发展,_RowNo:13
CommonID:DIR_17204468,ID:13551415,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:197913,name:B.9 2016年能源形势展望与对策建议,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.9 Energy Situation Analysis and Policy Recommendation in 2016,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7204034,AbstractCH:

本文对2015年以来国际国内能源形势进行了回顾和展望,对国际石油价格、国内需求结构变化、能源革命等重大问题进行了分析,并对2016年能源形势做出判断。本文认为,国内能源需求的峰值已经基本达到,未来需求趋于稳定,应抓住这一有利时机调整能源结构,推动能源生产、消费与技术革命,加快市场化改革的步伐。同时,建议通过“一带一路”项目建设促进亚洲能源合作,推动亚洲能源市场建设,以此降低我国的能源成本,加强能源安全。

,AbstractEN:

This report reviews energy situation since 2015,and makes some forecasting for 2016,including key issues such as world crude oil price,domestic demand structure changes,energy revolution. One of conclusions is that demand peak of energy will be reached soon and a slow negative growth can be foreseen,China should take advantage of this situation and promote the steps of energy structure adjustment,promote the revolution in energy production,consumption and technologies,as well as the market reform. Meanwhile,we also recommend that China should promote the cooperation among Asian countries and the creation of an Asian common energy market,through with the projects of One Belt One Road. These will be helpful to China’s energy security and will help to reduce the cost of energy mix.

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中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所能源安全与新能源技术研究创新工程课题组。课题组负责人:李平;课题组成员:刘强、吴滨、董惠梅、刘丹、胡安俊。

"},"The Group":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2016年中国能源形势展望与对策建议,ISBN:978-7-5097-9101-1,BookTitle:2016年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2016年中国能源形势展望与对策建议,_RowNo:14
CommonID:DIR_17204518,ID:7204518,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:197914,name:B.10 2016年中国区域经济发展态势及政策取向,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.10 China’s Regional Economic Development Trend and Policy Orientation in 2016,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7204034,AbstractCH:

2015年,中国区域经济增速普遍下滑,投资增速继续放缓,出口降幅加大,利润下降幅度极大,但各地增长波动和分化特征明显,尤其是东北地区经济面临较大困难。2016年,中国区域经济增长仍将面临较大的下行压力,区域增长分化将得到一定缓解,但一些资源型地区和东北老工业基地稳增长、调结构的任务繁重。为此,中央区域政策应从稳定经济增速、降低区域系统性风险、寻求新的增长动力、优化区域结构等方面入手。一是加大区域稳增长力度,遏制经济增速下滑趋势;二是采取综合的政策措施,加大对问题区域的扶助力度;三是强化区域创新体系建设,加快转型升级步伐;四是大力推进区域合作与一体化进程。

,AbstractEN:

In 2015,China’s regional economic growth was generally decline,investment growth continued to be slow,the decline in exports increased,and profit declined significantly. But the regional characteristic of growth volatility and differentiation was obvious. Especially the Northeast economy faced greater difficulties. In 2016,regional economic growth in China will continue to face greater downward pressure,and regional growth differentiation will get some relief. But some resource-based regions and the northeast old industrial regions will face the heavy task of stablizing growth and adjusting the structure. Therefore,central regional policies should be aimed instablizing economic growth,reducing regional systemic risk,seeking new growth drivers,and optimize the regional structure.

,KeyWords:4517,40919,5799,EKeyWords:20256,40923,20258,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:7204519,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201601010010733_000_010,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2016-07-12 08:42:43.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 13:43:17.0,HitCount:38,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:7204520,DownCount:26,AuthorInfos:{"魏后凯":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

魏后凯,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所所长,研究员,博士生导师。

"},"赵勇":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

赵勇,中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所博士后,副教授。

"},"Wei Houkai":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhao Yong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2016-06-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2016年中国区域经济发展态势及政策取向,ISBN:978-7-5097-9101-1,BookTitle:2016年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2016年中国区域经济发展态势及政策取向,_RowNo:15
CommonID:DIR_17204575,ID:7204575,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:197915,name:B.11 京津冀生态补偿促协同发展11492424,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.11 Jing-Jin-Ji Ecological Compensation to Promote Coordinated Development,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:7204034,AbstractCH:

京津冀地区作为一个特殊的地域单元,需要统筹考虑区域生态补偿,推动区域内建立横向补偿制度,加快实现生态一体化。而促进生态一体化进程的关键是创新生态补偿机制,健全完善多元、公平的生态补偿制度。具体来说,可在已有工作的基础上,构建生态补偿的区域联动机制、生态权责机制、生态红线机制、生态红利机制。为此,需要建立统一协调的机构及其综合决策机制,建立健全相关立法执法体系,加强相关评估和监管制度建设,深入推进区域联动机制和社会共治,结合新型城镇化建设推进资源均衡配置,并开展京津冀地区生态补偿的试点工作。

,AbstractEN:

As a special geographical unit,Jing-Jin-Ji region should be planed as a whole to consider regional ecological compensation,set up intra-regional horizontal compensation system,and speed up the implementation of ecological integration. The key to promote ecological integration is the innovation of ecological compensation mechanism,and the improvement and perfect of the multivariate and fair system of ecological compensation. In particular,on the basis of the existing work,we should build regional linkage mechanism of ecological compensation,ecological accountability mechanism,the ecological mechanism of the red line,and bonus mechanism. Therefore,weshould establish a unified coordination institution and a comprehensive decision-making mechanism,improve the relevant legislation and law enforcement system,promote the operation of market mechanism,strengthen the construction of the relevant evaluation and supervision system,deepen regional linkage mechanism,promote balanced allocation of resources,and carry out pilot work in Jing-Jin-Ji region ecological compensation.

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潘家华,中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所所长,研究员。

"},"李萌":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

李萌,中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所副研究员。

"},"张莹":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

张莹,中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所副研究员。

"},"丛晓男":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

丛晓男,中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所副研究员。

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