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2017年中国经济前景分析

书 名: 2017年中国经济前景分析
英 文 名: ANALYSIS ON THE PROSPECT OF CHINA’S ECONOMY (2017)
作 者:  李扬李平 李雪松 张平
I S B N: 978-7-5201-0717-4
丛 书 名: 经济蓝皮书春季号
关 键 词:  中国经济 经济预测 经济发展趋势 研究报告 2017
出版日期: 2017-05-01
获奖情况: 第九届优秀皮书一等奖

中文摘要

在世界经济处于深度调整期、“逆全球化”思潮和贸易保护主义倾向抬头和各类不确定性因素增加的国际背景下,2017年我国经济总体依然保持平稳较快增长,经济结构继续优化,就业基本保持稳定。预计2017年中国经济增长6.6%左右,实现年初预期6.5%的经济增长目标,继续保持在合理运行区间。预计2017年居民消费价格上涨2.1%;工业品出厂价格上涨6.4%。第三产业增加值占比继续提高,固定资产投资增速小幅回落,消费增速总体平稳,进出口增速下降,贸易顺差基本稳定,CPI与PPI背离的剪刀差有所缩小,居民收入稳定增长。

2017年应加大积极财政政策的实施力度,适度扩大财政赤字规模,以“稳增长”为目标,供给侧改革与扩大内需并重;有效降低企业税费负担,适当降低增值税税率,推进个人所得税改革;充分发挥积极财政政策在促进企业创新中的作用;推进财税体制改革,矫正供需结构错配和要素配置扭曲,提高资源配置效率。同时综合应用货币政策工具及创新,调控和引导货币总量增速,防范流动性风险。

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CommonID:DIR_50098687,ID:8471128,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:323627,Name:B.1 中国经济形势分析与预测,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.1 Analysis and Forecast of China’s Economic Situation(The Spring Report,2017),EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8470839,AbstractCH:2017年,在世界经济处于深度调整期、“逆全球化”思潮和贸易保护主义倾向抬头、发达经济体政策外溢效应变数和不确定性因素增加的国际背景下,虽然面临国内产能过剩、经济增长内生动力不足、金融风险不断积聚等诸多困难,中国经济总体依然保持平稳较快增长,经济结构继续优化,就业基本保持稳定。预计2017年中国经济增长6.6%左右,增速比上年略微回落0.1个百分点,可实现年初预期6.5%的经济增长目标,继续保持在经济增长的合理区间。主要考虑是:供给侧的主要因素持续减弱;需求侧的全球贸易低速增长,外部需求持续低迷且贸易保护主义抬头,内部需求结构分化;在财政收入增速下降和政府债务率较高的条件下,持续快速增长的基础设施固定资产投资后劲不足,投资收益率持续下降,投资对经济增长的拉动效应在不断减弱,而且民间资本投资大幅下滑,外商投资持续低迷;消费增速总体保持平稳小幅下滑趋势,过快增长的购房贷款将对整体消费产生长期不利影响。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:4541,4936,23595,EKeyWords:20147,20148,54991,SubjectWords:279925,LiteratureId:8471118,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120170401X20173223001_000_001,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2017-06-27 10:11:45.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2022-01-05 01:01:15.0,HitCount:233,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:8471168,DownCount:26,AuthorInfos:{"Project Group":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"\u201C中国经济形势分析与预测\u201D课题组":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

课题总负责人:李扬;执行负责人:李平、李雪松、张平;执笔:李平、娄峰、樊明太、张涛、张延群、万相昱;参加起草的还有李文军、胡洁、刘强、刘生龙、蒋金荷、胡安俊、王恰等。

"}},BookPublishDate:2017-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国经济形势分析与预测,ISBN:978-7-5201-0717-4,BookTitle:2017年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,ResearchOrg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:null,SearchTitle_2:中国经济形势分析与预测,_RowNo:5
CommonID:DIR_50098713,ID:8471232,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:323628,Name:B.2 2016年中国农业农村发展态势及政策建议,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.2 China’s Agricultural Economic and Rural Developing Situation in 2016 and policy recommendations,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8470839,AbstractCH:

在国家强农惠农富农政策的支持下,2016年中国农业农村经济持续稳定发展。粮食再获丰收,但粮食总产量较上年有小幅下降,结束了连续十二年的增长。第一产业在国民经济中的比重进一步下降。大米和小麦进口量上升,玉米进口量下降。农村居民收入持续增长,城乡收入比2.72;农村居民的消费结构进一步升级。受国际粮食价格下降的影响,国内三大主粮的生产者价格全线下降,但猪肉价格涨幅明显。总体上看,中国当前农业农村发展仍然具有较强的内生动力。但农业农村经济运行中的各种矛盾逐渐凸显,潜在的粮食供需矛盾依然存在,农业面源污染和农产品质量等安全问题突出,农业的国际竞争力趋弱,农民进一步增收的压力较大。为此,要调整国家粮食安全政策的思路,强化对农业国际竞争力的重视,建立保障农民持续增收的长效机制,并为农业农村绿色转型提供政策支持。

,AbstractEN:

Supported by a series of preferential policies,China’s agricultural economy and rural development remain a stable progression in 2016. The proportion of the primary industry in the national economy has further declined.,Although the output of grain has another harvest,the total grain production has declined slightly over the previous year,ending its continuous growth for 12 years. Rice and wheat imports increased,corn imports declined. The income of rural residents keeps growing,and the urban-rural income ratio declines to 2.72. Domestic producer prices of wheat,rice and maize all fall obviously,which affected by the reduction of international grain prices,while pork price has a significant increase. In general,China’s agricultural economic growth still has a strong endogenous momentum. However,the inherent problems in agricultural economy are increasingly prominent. Potential contradiction between grain supply and demand still exists. The excessive use of fertilizer results in serious non-point source pollution and food safety issues. China’s agriculture economy still suffers from low competitiveness in global market. And it becomes more difficult to further increase farmers’ income. Accordingly,we should adjust the national food security policy,attach more importance toimprove the international competitiveness of agriculture,establish a long-term mechanism to promote farmers’ income,and provide policy support for the green transformation of agriculture and rural areas.

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魏后凯,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所所长,研究员,博士生导师。

"},"全世文":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

全世文,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员。

"},"Wei Houkai":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Quan Shiwen":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2016年中国农业农村发展态势及政策建议,ISBN:978-7-5201-0717-4,BookTitle:2017年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,ResearchOrg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:null,SearchTitle_2:2016年中国农业农村发展态势及政策建议,_RowNo:6
CommonID:DIR_50098730,ID:8471351,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:323629,Name:B.3 中国工业经济运行:2016年特征与2017年挑战,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.3 China’s Industrial Economy:Characteristics of 2016 and Challenges of 2017,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8470839,AbstractCH:

中国工业经济运行的总体特征显示,2016年工业增加值增速缓中趋稳,工业品价格、工业出口和工业企业利润都呈现积极变化,供给侧结构性改革初见成效;工业行业结构继续呈现高级化趋势,结构趋优、新旧动能转换的经济新常态的特征更加显著;中部地区工业领跑,西部地区工业回落较快,东北地区工业总体内部分化显著。

,AbstractEN:

The overall characteristics of China’s industrial economic operation show that the industrial growth rate has slowed steadily in 2016,industrial prices,industrial exports and industrial enterprises profits are showing positive changes and the supply side structural reform shows an initial result;Industrial structure continues to show an advanced trend,particularly,the features of new economic normality of optimized structure and the new and old kinetic energy conversion are more significant. The industrial leaders in the central region and the industrial areas in the western region are declining rapidly,and the internalization of the industrial areas in the northeastern region is significant.

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黄群慧,中国社会科学院工业经济研究所所长、研究员。

"},"Huang Qunhui":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国工业经济运行:2016年特征与2017年挑战,ISBN:978-7-5201-0717-4,BookTitle:2017年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,ResearchOrg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:null,SearchTitle_2:中国工业经济运行:2016年特征与2017年挑战,_RowNo:7
CommonID:DIR_50098734,ID:8471512,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:323630,Name:B.4 “统计外收入”及其对居民收入与经济增长同步性的影响,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.4 The Effect of “External Revenue” on the Synchronization between Residents’ Income and Economic Growth,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8470839,AbstractCH:

本文比较国家统计局住户调查数据和《资金流量表》数据,估算了近年来“统计外收入”的规模和结构,分析了影响居民收入与经济增长同步性的因素。研究发现,基于住户调查的城乡居民收入存在被低估情况,这些收入我们称之为“统计外收入”。据推算,1992年以来,居民人均可支配收入遗漏率在18%到27%之间波动。工资性收入和转移性收入遗漏率低,经营性收入和财产性收入遗漏率高。遗漏率既受到统计制度改革的影响,也受到经济形势的影响。大量“统计外收入”的存在,意味着我国居民收入水平实际上更高些,居民收入与经济增长之间的同步性会更好些,但也意味着实现2020年城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番的目标的实际难度更大。总的来看,未来一个时期,居民收入增长将会保持与经济增长大致同步态势。

,AbstractEN:

The ‘External revenue’ is one of the most important factors which affect the income and the synchronization of economic growth. This article compares the National Bureau of statistics of household survey data with the “cash flow” data. Based on this fact,itestimates the scale and structure of the recent ‘external revenue’ and also analyses the factors which impact the synchronization between residents’ income and economic growth. Based on the recent research,the income of urban and rural residents on the basis of household survey data is known as ‘external revenue’. According to the “funds flow statement”,the missing rate of the disposable income per capital fluctuates between 18 to 27 percent. Since 2012,the omission rate has started to decrease gradually and in 2014 the rate has been 20.6 percent. The economic situation leads to a low rate of wage and transfer income and a high rate of operating and property income,and also brings a negative impact on omission rate due to the reform of statistical system. The existence of the large number of ‘external revenue’ means that the actual residential income level is higher than the expected level and the synchronization between income and economic growth will be positive. On the other hand,this also means that it will be more difficult to double the residential income per capita in 2020 compared with that in 2010. Overall,the growth of income and economic growth will be maintained.

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张车伟,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所所长,研究员。

"},"赵文":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

赵文,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所副研究员。

"},"Zhang Chewei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhao Wen":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:“统计外收入”及其对居民收入与经济增长同步性的影响,ISBN:978-7-5201-0717-4,BookTitle:2017年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,ResearchOrg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:null,SearchTitle_2:“统计外收入”及其对居民收入与经济增长同步性的影响,_RowNo:8
CommonID:DIR_50098746,ID:8471629,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:323631,Name:B.5 当前我国财政运行态势判断与财政政策展望50069896,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.5 The judgement of China’s fiscal operation situation and the prospect of China’s fiscal policy at present,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8470839,AbstractCH:

财政政策的实施主要是对财政收支的规模、结构、增长速度及收支对比关系进行安排,以达到预定的政策目标。当前,我国要实施更加积极有效的财政政策,才能实现经济稳定发展和国家治理现代化的双重目标,这就需要更大程度地减收增支,这样也就会使经济新常态下的财政运行面临更大的挑战。为此,需要通过更加科学、合理的政策设计,来提升财政能力空间。这将是2017年乃至以后一段时间内,财政政策设计者面临的严峻挑战。

,AbstractEN:

Implementing fiscal policy to achieve the intended policy objectives includes the financial revenue and expenditure scale,structure,growth rate and the relationship between income and expenditure. At present,more proactive fiscal policy implementation can achieve the dual goals of the stable development of economy and the modernization of national governance,which requires a greater degree of fiscal incremental reduction,and then it will put forward the challenge to the financial operation under the new economic normal. It is an urgent major task faced by the fiscal policy designers in 2017 or even longer period,which needs to design a more scientific and rational policy to enhance the fiscal capacity space.

,KeyWords:25741,4678,6993,EKeyWords:27167,4682,78234,SubjectWords:279929,LiteratureId:8471599,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b120170401X20173223001_000_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:wanghan,AddTime:2017-06-27 10:11:46.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2022-01-05 01:01:15.0,HitCount:359,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:8471646,DownCount:15,AuthorInfos:{"何德旭":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

何德旭,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院院长、研究员。

"},"于树一":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

于树一,中国社会科学院财经战略研究院副研究员。

"},"He Dexu":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Yu Shuyi":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:当前我国财政运行态势判断与财政政策展望,ISBN:978-7-5201-0717-4,BookTitle:2017年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,ResearchOrg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:null,SearchTitle_2:当前我国财政运行态势判断与财政政策展望,_RowNo:9
CommonID:DIR_50098777,ID:8471774,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:323632,Name:B.6 中国金融景气周期循环与前景预测50069913,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.6 China’s Financial Business Cycle and Forecast,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8470839,AbstractCH:

本文从货币政策、外部冲击与内部冲击三个层面进行指标变量的筛选,基于降维思想,利用PCA方法提取中国金融状况指数(FCI),并综合运用HP滤波、K-L信息量等研究方法进行FCI与宏观经济变量间的领先滞后关系研究。结果表明:样本期内,中国正处在第3轮金融景气周期循环的缓慢复苏期与新一轮金融小周期的快速回升期;价格型货币政策工具、房地产市场与大宗商品价格等有关变量对FCI具有显著的相对重要性;2017年中国实现经济平稳增长是大概率事件,发生系统性金融风险是小概率事件,但要防范局部与区域性金融风险的发生,且应加强数量型货币政策工具调控金融状况的有效性;2017年CPI有望继续回升;预测显示,2017年中国金融状况将步入一轮金融小周期的下行区间,但下行幅度有限,趋势成分表明2017年金融状况仍处于第3轮金融景气周期循环的上行区间。

,AbstractEN:

In this paper,the initial index system design ideas of the Goodhart and Hofmann (2001) is continued to be used here,in which the selection of index variables is from three aspects:monetary policy,external shocks and internal shocks. Based on the idea of dimensionality reduction,the PCA method is used to extract the Chinese financial condition index (FCI),and the HP filter,K-L information and other research methods are used to investigate the lead-lag relationship between FCI and macroeconomic variables. The results show that,during the sample period,China is in a slow recovery period of the third round of the financial business cycle,and a new round of rapid recovery of the financial cycle;Variables relating to price-based monetary policy instruments,real estate markets and commodity prices have a significant importance to FCI;In 2017,there is a high probability event for China to achieve steady economic growth,and systemic financial risk is a small probability event,but need to prevent the occurrence of local and regional financial risks.

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陈守东,吉林大学教授、博士生导师。

"},"孙彦林":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

孙彦林,吉林大学商学院博士研究生。

"},"刘洋":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

刘洋,吉林大学商学院师资型博士后。

"},"Chen Shoudong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Sun Yanlin":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Yang":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国金融景气周期循环与前景预测,ISBN:978-7-5201-0717-4,BookTitle:2017年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,ResearchOrg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:null,SearchTitle_2:中国金融景气周期循环与前景预测,_RowNo:10
CommonID:DIR_50098786,ID:8471876,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:323633,Name:B.7 2017年能源形势展望与对策建议,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.7 Energy Situation Analysis and Policy Recommendation in 2017,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8470839,AbstractCH:

本文对2016年以来的能源形势进行了回顾,着重分析了国际石油市场以及国内需求侧和供给侧的结构变化等重要问题,在此基础上对2017年能源形势给出了初步预测。展望2017年,本文认为我国应抓住国际油气价格处于低位这一有利时机,深入调整能源结构,进一步推动能源革命,促进能源转型,加快市场化步伐,进一步推动油气进口的多元化。

,AbstractEN:

This report reviews the situation changes of both domestic and global energy marketsfor the year 2016,focusing on some key issues such as world crude oil price,consumption structure,as well as domestic structure changes in domesticsupply and demand side. In 2017,China canpromote the energyrevolution bytaking advantage of low oil and gas prices,improve the structure of supply and accelerate the transition to cleaner energy mix and market-oriented reforms,and can diversify oil and natural gas import in order to improve the situation of energy security.

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李平,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所所长,研究员。

"},"刘强":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

刘强,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所副研究员。

"},"王恰":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

王恰,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所助理研究员。

"},"Li Ping":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Qiang":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Wang Qia":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2017年能源形势展望与对策建议,ISBN:978-7-5201-0717-4,BookTitle:2017年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,ResearchOrg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:null,SearchTitle_2:2017年能源形势展望与对策建议,_RowNo:11
CommonID:DIR_50098801,ID:8471980,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:323634,Name:B.8 应对气候变化政策和目标对就业影响的评估分析,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.8 An analysis of the impact of climate change policies and Objectives on Employment,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8470839,AbstractCH:

旨在降低温室气体排放,引导能源结构和经济结构调整的气候政策会对经济社会产生深远的影响。节能减排目标的完成与就业问题密切相关。积极应对气候变化,遏制全球变暖已成为全球共识,低碳发展是未来经济发展的必然选择,考察相关的气候政策和行动对就业可能造成的影响,是正确选择政策目标和评估政策影响的重要课题。气候政策能够给林业和新能源、节能服务等一些新兴产业创造大量绿色的就业机会,但同时也会给煤炭开采和其他高耗煤产业带来不利冲击,导致就业减少。正确评估各部门的具体影响,并基于研究提出有针对性的政策建议,大力鼓励具有就业创造效应的行业快速发展,同时解决好面临就业损失压力的行业和地区可能面临的问题,以便发挥气候政策实现减排和就业创造的双重红利。

,AbstractEN:

It is designed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions,the policy on the induction and adjustment of energy structure will create a profound impact on the economy and society. Energy saving and emission reduction targets are closely related. In order to correctly select the policy objectives and evaluate the impact of policies,it is essential to respond actively to climate change and improve the situation of global warming,which has become a global consensus;low carbon development is an inevitable choice of economic development in the future;to examine the potential impact of climate policy and action on employment. Climate policy is able to offer more job opportunities in the field of new energy,energy conservation,forestry services and other emerging industries. On the other hand,this will also create a negative impact on the field of coal mining and other high coal consumption which leads to employment reduction. In order to achieve the double bonus on emission reduction and job creation in the field of climate policy,it is essential to assess the impact of every department present policy suggestions based on research,and encourage the rapid development of industries with potential creation. At the same time,it is better to solve the potential problem to reduce the pressure of employment.

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潘家华,中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所所长,研究员。

"},"张莹":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

张莹,中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所副研究员。

"},"Pan Jiahua":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhang Ying":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:应对气候变化政策和目标对就业影响的评估分析,ISBN:978-7-5201-0717-4,BookTitle:2017年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,ResearchOrg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:null,SearchTitle_2:应对气候变化政策和目标对就业影响的评估分析,_RowNo:12
CommonID:DIR_50098862,ID:8472184,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:323636,Name:B.10 中国房地产业经济与税收统计分析,ShortName:,SubName:,EnTitle:B.10 Statistical analysis of China’s real estate industry and taxation,EnShortTitle:,EnSubTitle:,Level:0,BookId:8470839,AbstractCH:

本报告立足中国国情,在中国住房制度改革的背景下,通过收集、整理大量的有关房地产经济和税收数据,运用定量与定性相结合的研究方法,深入分析了中国房地产业的发展环境,回顾了房地产发展历程,以及房地产税收情况,并结合房地产经济和税收的发展情况,找出了中国房地产业发展过程中存在的主要问题,提出了未来房地产业健康发展的建议。

,AbstractEN:

Based on the situation of China’s housing system,this report analyzes the development environment of China’s real estate industry by collecting and sorting out a lot of real estate economy and tax data,and using a combined quantitative and qualitative research method. This report reviews the real estate development process,and the real estate tax situation,combined with the development of the real estate economy and taxation,to find out the main problems in the development of China’s real estate industry,and put forward the suggestions for the future development of the real estate industry.

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付广军,国家税务总局税收科学研究所研究员,中安联合博士后工作站博士后导师,民建中央财政金融委副主任。

"},"Fu Guangjun":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2017-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国房地产业经济与税收统计分析,ISBN:978-7-5201-0717-4,BookTitle:2017年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,ResearchOrg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:null,SearchTitle_2:中国房地产业经济与税收统计分析,_RowNo:13
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2016年,我国经济增长质量和效益提高,新动能加速成长。本文利用合成指数和预警信号系统等计量经济方法对我国经济周期态势进行了监测和预测,结论如下:我国本轮经济增长率周期的下降局面已于2015年10月结束,达到谷底,下降阶段持续时间长达25个月,2016年全年处于小幅上升阶段;基于先行指数判断,预计在2017年6月左右达到本轮经济增长率周期的峰,随后微幅平稳回落,考虑到当前我国经济正处于由高速向中速增长的转换时期,经济下行压力依然较大,预测2017年全年GDP实际增长率将达到6.5%或略高;物价增长周期滞后于经济增长周期,在PPI大幅上升的推动下,CPI也会缓慢上升,但物价涨幅仍能控制在3%以内。

,AbstractEN:

As the starting year of the “13th Five-Year”,China’s economy has achieved remarkable results. The quality and efficiency of economic growth has been improved,the new momentum has also accelerated its growth. This article uses the econometric methods such as synthetic index and pre-warning signal system to monitor and forecast the economic cycle in China. The followings are the brief conclusions:the current round of economic growth cycle has reached its bottom line by the end of October in 2015,its decline duration is up to 25 months. In the year 2016,the tendency shows a slight increase in economic growth in China. Based on the previous index,China’s economic growth is expected to increase in the first half of year 2017;it will reach its peak in around June,and then follow with a slightly steady decline. By considering China’s current economy situation,transition period from high speed to medium speed,the pressure of economic growth decreasing is still heavy. The forecast for the year 2017 real GDP growth rate will reach 6.5% or higher,the price growth cycle will lag behind economic growth cycle in PPI driven by the increase in amplitude,and the CPI will slow up,however,prices still could be controlled within 3%.

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王金明,吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林大学商学院教授。

"},"高铁梅":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

高铁梅,东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,东北财经大学经济学院。

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在全球经济持续深度调整、复苏乏力、挑战上升的背景下,2016年中国对外贸易增速有所下降,但以人民币计价的降幅和以美元计价的降幅分别较2015年收窄6.1个和1.2个百分点,进出口数量指数则呈现企稳回升态势。2017年,国际环境复杂性进一步凸显,地缘政治风险、国际政治格局变化、经济规则受到前所未有的挑战等都将带来很大的不确定性和多重影响,中国对外贸易面临的压力依然较大,但中国经济、对外贸易表现出较大韧性,结构调整逐步推进,将是全球经济和全球贸易发展的“压舱石”和“稳定器”。建议中国与美国全面开展经济合作,化解分歧,这将有助于全球经济和全球贸易穿越不确定性迷雾,为世界提供更多发展机遇。

,AbstractEN:

In the context of the continued global economic adjustment,weak recovery and rising challenges,the growth rate of China’s foreign trade has declined in 2016,but the decreasing amplitude in RMB-denominated and dollar-denominated has decreased by 6.1 and 1.2 per cent,respectively. Import and export volume index shows a steady rising trend. In 2017,the complexity of international environment is further highlighted. Geopolitical risks,changes in the international political landscape and economic rules are facing unprecedented challenges,which will lead to a lot of uncertainty and multiple effects. China’s foreign trade is still facing a greater pressure,but China’s economy and foreign trade demonstrate greater toughness,and structural adjustment is in process. This will be the “ballast stone” and “stabilizer” of the global economy and global trade. It is suggested that China and the United States should carry out economic cooperation to resolve mutual difference,which will help the global economy and global trade pass through the uncertainty of fog,and provide more development opportunities to the world.

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刘建颖,商务部研究院副研究员,博士。

"},"金柏松":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

金柏松,商务部研究院研究员、教授。

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