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中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告

书 名: 中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告
英 文 名: ANALYSIS ON THE PROSPECT OF CHINA'S ECONOMY(2013)
作 者:  李平 李扬 李雪松 张平
I S B N: 978-7-5097-4483-3
丛 书 名: 经济蓝皮书春季号 订阅
关 键 词:  中国经济 经济预测 经济发展趋势 研究报告 2013
出版日期: 2013-04-01

中文摘要

2012年以来,受欧债危机影响,世界经济及多个主要经济体的经济增速继续放缓,国内经济发展面临的困难增多,经济增长下行压力和产能相对过剩的矛盾有所加剧,全年国内生产总值增长7.8%。2013年,在国际经济缓慢复苏、美欧日继续实施量化宽松政策背景下,中国宏观经济有望保持增长速度适当、物价温和上涨的发展态势,预计我国GDP增长率为8.0%左右。总体来看,中国宏观经济运行继续朝着宏观调控预期方向发展。 面对通货膨胀压力、结构性减缓等问题,2013年政府需要采取一系列政策措施加以调控。农业综合生产能力、农产品单产水平和总产量都将继续提高,农业经营体系和农村社会管理体制有望在新一轮改革中创新,生态建设力度将继续加大,城乡统筹程度会有所提高。中国工业经济增速仍将处于平稳较快增长区间,工业经济增长动力机制将发生转变,全年工业经济增速将维持在11%左右。财政政策的总体趋势是“稳中求进”,财政调控中出现经济增幅波动空间收窄、通货膨胀管理空间收窄等问题,加快推进财税体制改革进程将是财税政策的主要方向。预计2013年我国金融压力将出现缓慢回升,由低压力区制向中压力区制转移,但是仍然会处于中压力区制的均值以下。由于中国首现劳动年龄人口的减少、人口红利的消失,就业矛盾越来越从总量问题转变为结构性和摩擦性问题,政府需要加大人力资本投入、创造人力资源涌流的制度环境。中国对外贸易发展出现转折,进出口特别是出口贸易增长速度从以往的两位数高速增长转变为个位数的中速增长,世界占比提高将是中国货物出口贸易的长期趋势。在国际经济继续缓慢复苏但仍具有许多不确定性的背景下,我国出口增速显著回落,预计2013年我国进口和出口将比2012年略有增加。 尽管我国经济发展面临不少风险和挑战,不平衡、不协调、不可持续问题依然突出,潜在通胀和资产泡沫的压力加大,国际金融危机深层次影响持续显现,国际经济形势依然错综复杂,但中国经济社会发展基本面长期趋好,国内市场潜力巨大,社会生产力基础雄厚,科技创新能力增强,人力资源依然丰富,生产要素综合优势明显,社会主义市场经济体制机制不断完善,中国经济在未来的发展中仍然具备难得的机遇和有利条件。
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CommonID:DIR_10527326,ID:527326,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110072,name:B.1 中国经济形势分析与预测,ShortName:null,SubName:——2013年春季报告,EnTitle:China's Economy to Embark on a New Journey,to Meet New Challenges,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:2013年国际金融危机深层次影响持续显现,国际经济形势错综复杂,中国经济依然具备难得的机遇和有利条件。在国际经济缓慢复苏、美欧日继续实施量化宽松政策背景下,中国宏观经济有望保持增长速度适当、物价温和上涨的发展态势。做好2013年及今后几年的经济工作,要适应国内外经济形势新变化,重视需求与供给的重要变化,宏观经济政策应由需求管理为主转向需求管理与供给管理的有机结合。,AbstractEN:In 2013, although impacts of the international financial crisis appear, the international economic situation is complex, there are still precious opportunities and favorable conditions in China's economy. As the international economy recovering, and the quantitative easing policy in the U.S., Europe and Japan, China's macro-economy is expected to maintain an appropriate growth rate and gradually increase prices. In 2013 and the future, we should adapt to the new changes in the economic situation, emphasis on changes of demand and supply, and change the demand management into the organic combination of demand management and supply management in the macro-economic policies.,KeyWords:20451,7473,22980,EKeyWords:76215,36323,27110,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527327,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:8DB9D63B-E5E0-4cc7-8C35-4E204BED7DD3,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_001,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:53.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:87,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527328,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国经济形势分析与预测——2013年春季报告,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国经济形势分析与预测——2013年春季报告,_RowNo:11
CommonID:DIR_10527341,ID:527341,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110073,name:B.2 2013~2017年中国经济的增长与波动,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Analysis and Forecast of China's Economic Situation(The Spring Report, 2013),EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:本文分析了近六年来我国GDP季度增长率和规模以上工业增加值月度增长率的波动所呈现出的五个阶段的变化,指明当前的经济回升态势来之不易,并讨论了新一轮经济周期从哪年算起的问题。在此基础上,分析了未来五年或更长时间里我国经济发展的两大空间:一是由各地区人均GDP水平差距所带来的发展空间,二是由城镇化率与发达国家的差距所带来的发展空间。,AbstractEN:This paper analyzes China's quarterly GDP growth rate in recent six years and changes of five phases which appears fluctuations of the monthly growth rate in the industrial added value above designated size. The current trend of economic recovery doesn't come easily, and the year which the new round of economic cycle starts is discussed. On this basis, the paper analyzes two aspects that China's economy will make development in the next five or more years: the one is the gap of GDP per capita in different regions, the other is the gap of urbanization rate between China and developed countries.,KeyWords:20451,22068,36324,7905,EKeyWords:31281,27111,23516,7946,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527342,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:DAD83A54-913A-47ac-9DEB-7F2FA85E412D,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_002,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:53.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:60,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527343,DownCount:11,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2013~2017年中国经济的增长与波动,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2013~2017年中国经济的增长与波动,_RowNo:12
CommonID:DIR_10527361,ID:527361,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110074,name:B.3 2013年我国经济社会发展面临的机遇与挑战,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:China's Economic Growth and Volatility in 2013-2017,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:2013年经济社会发展面临的机遇和挑战并存,既要坚定信心,又要增强忧患意识和紧迫感。2012年召开的党的十八大开创了经济社会发展的崭新局面,不仅能保证做好2013年的经济工作,顺利实施“十二五”规划,而且会为未来全面建成小康社会战略任务的完成奠定坚实的基础。经过过去五年的发展,我国深入贯彻落实科学发展观,克服重重困难,经济快速增长,经济结构有效调整,社会事业快速发展,人民生活质量进一步改善,生态文明取得新进展,为经济社会发展奠定了更加雄厚的物质基础。同时,在国际环境中,也潜藏着政治、科技和经济的新机遇。但是,应该看到国际金融危机没有结束,世界经济复苏依然充满不确定性和不稳定性,国内发展依然面临宏观经济发展中的不平衡、不协调、不可持续等突出问题以及财政金融、经济结构、社会发展、政府职能等方面的问题。,AbstractEN:In 2013, the opportunities and challenges of economic and social development coexist, and it is better not only to strengthen the confidence, but also to enhance the sense of crisis and urgency. As for the opportunities, firstly, the Eighteenth National People's Congress of the CPC creates the new situation of economic and social development. Secondly, after rapid development in last five years, according to China's reform and opening up, thoroughly implementing the scientific concept of development, China's economy overcomes the economic difficulties, and lays a more solid material foundation for economic and social development. Thirdly, some new chance in politics, science and technology, and economy exists in the international environment. However, we should see the challenges that the international financial crisis is not over, the world economic recovery is still fraught with uncertainty and instability in external environments. At the same time, we also should concern that the imbalances, uncoordinated, unsustainable conditions and the other issues in fiscal and financial, economic structure, social development, and government functions exist in domestic development.,KeyWords:7357,21072,7483,EKeyWords:8002,21747,23809,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527362,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:BF43B3D5-D476-4343-91FF-BBC28370680C,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_003,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:53.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:69,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527363,DownCount:4,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2013年我国经济社会发展面临的机遇与挑战,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2013年我国经济社会发展面临的机遇与挑战,_RowNo:13
CommonID:DIR_10527382,ID:527382,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110075,name:B.4 当前工业经济形势分析与“十二五”展望,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Opportunities and Challenges of China's Economic and Social Development in 2013,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:2012年,工业经济增速出现了较大幅度的回落,制造业投资增速明显降低,企业效益大幅下降。下一阶段,中国工业经济增长动力机制将发生转变:一是由投资拉动为主向消费、投资、出口“三驾马车”协同拉动转变;二是由外延式增长向内涵式增长转变;三是由平推式工业化向立体式工业化转变;四是由“低级红利”向“高级红利”转变。预计“十二五”期间,中国工业经济增速仍将处于平稳较快增长的区间。2013年全年工业经济增速将维持在11%左右,2014年和2015年将逐步下降到10%左右,整个“十二五”期间工业经济增速为10%~11%。,AbstractEN:The industrial economic growth rate, the manufacturing investment growth rate, and the corporate efficiencies dropped significantly in 2012. In the future, the dynamic mechanism of China's industrial economic growth will change as follows: Firstly, the reason of economic development should change from dominated by investment into consumption, investment and exports. Secondly, the growth pattern should change from epitaxial growth into internal growth. Thirdly, the pattern of industrialization should transfer from the horizontal development into the three-dimensional development. Fourthly, the bonus of industrial economy should turn from junior into senior. It is expected that China's industrial economic growth will make steady and rapid growth in the 12th Five-year Plan period. In 2013, the annual industrial economic growth will be maintained at around 11%, and it will gradually decline to about 10% in 2014 and 2015. The growth rate of the industrial economy is about 10% to 11% in the 12th Five-Year Plan period.,KeyWords:21755,36327,7892,EKeyWords:21757,36329,26024,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527383,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:CED1DB3F-7180-4ae5-ADE9-64B3FD8EA8DF,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_004,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:53.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:46,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527384,DownCount:4,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:当前工业经济形势分析与“十二五”展望,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:当前工业经济形势分析与“十二五”展望,_RowNo:14
CommonID:DIR_10527445,ID:527445,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110076,name:B.5 2013年“三农”发展的评价与思考,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:The Current Industrial and Economic Situation Analysis and Outlooks of the 12th Five-year Plan,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:2013年,农业综合生产能力、农产品单产水平和总产量都将继续提高。农民年人均纯收入有望超过9000元,人均工资收入将超过家庭经营收入而成为最主要的收入来源。农业经营体系和农村社会管理体制有望在新一轮改革中创新,生态建设力度将继续加大,城乡统筹程度会有所提高。为了保障农产品安全,政府要为职业农民充分就业创造条件,要从强化粮食消费管理入手完善粮食安全保障体系,要把城镇化和新农村建设有机地结合起来。,AbstractEN:In 2013, the comprehensive agricultural production capacity, agricultural products per unit area yield and total production will continue increasing. Farmers' annual net income per capita is expected to get more than 9000 yuan, and wage income per capita, which exceeds household business income, will become the most important source of income. Agricultural operation system and rural social management system are expected to innovate in the new round of reform, the ecological construction will make greater efforts, and the level of urban and rural overall development will be increased. In order to protect the safety of agricultural products, the government should make efforts to create opportunities for professional farmers. The food security system should be completed by means of strengthening food consumptive management, and urbanization and new rural construction should be organically combined.,KeyWords:30612,36330,34804,EKeyWords:22982,36332,36333,36334,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527446,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:5BEDE364-7676-443e-BD19-1EA30421C6AC,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:54.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:32,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527447,DownCount:9,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2013年“三农”发展的评价与思考,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2013年“三农”发展的评价与思考,_RowNo:15
CommonID:DIR_10527491,ID:527491,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110077,name:B.6 中国货物出口贸易世界占比的长期趋势,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Evaluation of Agriculture, Rural Development and Farmers in 2013,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:2012年中国对外贸易发展出现一个转折,即进出口,特别是出口贸易增长速度从以往的两位数高速增长转变为个位数的中速增长,但是,中国出口贸易的世界市场份额仍然提高了0.57个百分点。世界占比提高,将是中国货物出口贸易的长期趋势。从理论上说,这是由货物出口强度的相关内在因素决定的;从实证分析上看,中国货物出口世界占比的提高与中国人口在世界人口中占比的关联性十分紧密。若以制成品为分析对象,按照六种情景分析,到2025年,中国货物出口贸易的世界占比达到峰值,即占世界市场份额的20%左右。,AbstractEN:In 2012, China's foreign trade development is at a turning point, which is the import and export, especially export growth rate is changed from previous double-digit growth rate into single digits. However, the world market share of China's export trade still increases 0.57 percent. The long-term trend of China's export goods trade is that the world market share increases. In theory, it is determined by internal factors which is the strength of export goods; From the view of empirical analysis, it is also determined by the increase of Chinese population. By analysis of six situations we suggest that the world market share in China's export goods trade will reach the peak by 2025, which is about 20% of the world market share, if we use finished products to analyze.,KeyWords:36335,36336,7357,EKeyWords:36365,36338,8002,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527492,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:AD62D401-0357-444c-85AA-B12E01B0D7BA,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_006,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:54.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:77,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527493,DownCount:3,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国货物出口贸易世界占比的长期趋势,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国货物出口贸易世界占比的长期趋势,_RowNo:16
CommonID:DIR_10527530,ID:527530,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110078,name:B.7 转折点之后的就业挑战,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Long-term Trend of the World Market Share in China's Export Goods Trade,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:2012年,中国首现劳动年龄人口的减少,标志着人口红利的消失。由于潜在增长率降低,这一年低于8%的经济增长率没有造成就业冲击,意味着劳动力市场从二元模式逐渐转向新古典模式。相应地,就业矛盾越来越从总量问题转变为结构性和摩擦性问题。本文以农民工、城镇就业困难人员和大学毕业生为对象,分析每个群体面临的就业困难性质,结合国际经验揭示导致劳动者脆弱性的激励根源,提出政府加大人力资本投入、创造人力资源涌流的制度环境等政策建议。,AbstractEN:The decline in absolute number of working age population in 2012 indicates the beginning of the disappearing of the demographic dividend in China. As a consequence of the resulting slowdown of potential growth rate, a growth rate below 8% did not cause employment shock in this year. Corresponding to the transition of development pattern from dual economy to neoclassical growth, the Chinese laborers are confronting with more structural and frictional employment difficulties. This chapter analyses the vulnerability of migrant workers, urban locals, and college graduates in labor market and proposes policy suggestions. The author suggests that the government responsibility at this stage is to invest more public resources in education and to create better institutional environment for labor mobility that is essential for getting incentives right.,KeyWords:8149,25749,38900,EKeyWords:29203,27174,36340,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527531,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:60975D2C-706F-4e4f-9649-395F3F2D9111,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_007,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:54.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:50,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527532,DownCount:16,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:转折点之后的就业挑战,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:转折点之后的就业挑战,_RowNo:17
CommonID:DIR_10527564,ID:527564,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110080,name:B.9 中国宏观经济与财政运行研判,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:China Price; Trends; Regulate; Commodity Income Distribution Problems and Countermeasures in China,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:现阶段我国宏观经济面临欧美经济复苏、巨大内需、“新四化”协调发展、投资和技术创新以及稳定的财政金融形势等机遇;同时也面临欧债危机和内部制度风险等挑战。可以预见,未来10~20年是中国经济下行因素和上行因素对冲的阶段。现阶段也面临一系列财政调控的可选择弹性空间收窄,如经济增幅波动空间收窄、通货膨胀管理空间收窄等。根据中央经济工作会议“稳中求进”的要求和总体框架以及现阶段的财政收支情况和运行环境,本文提出了对财政宏观调控措施的推进和优化。,AbstractEN:Nowadays, China's macroeconomic is facing the chance of economic recovery in Europe and America, a huge domestic demand, the coordinated development of new four modernizations, investment and technological innovation as well as the stability of the financial and monetary situation; while is also facing the challenges of the European debt crisis and the internal system risk. It can be predicted that in the next one or two decades, the positive factors and the negative factors of China's economy will conflict. However, a series of optional flexible space narrowing of financial regulation, such as, space narrowing in economic growth and inflation management, are confronted with in this time. According to the requirement of progressing while maintaining stability in Central Economic Work Conference, the overall economic framework, the current financial situation and operating environment of income-expenditure, this paper proposes the advancing and optimization of financial macro-control measures.,KeyWords:36345,25830,7714,EKeyWords:76248,36347,36348,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527565,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:AC14AE62-3DBA-4c37-B669-C9E85D667980,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_009,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:55.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:45,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527566,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国宏观经济与财政运行研判,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国宏观经济与财政运行研判,_RowNo:18
CommonID:DIR_10527663,ID:527663,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110081,name:B.10 2013年中国经济增长态势和经济周期波动分析10131536,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:China's Macroeconomic and Judge of Financial Running,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:在未来一个阶段内,我国经济增长趋势将出现一种结构型减缓,这既有潜在经济增长率结构性减速的原因,还有宏观经济主动调控和经济周期阶段性的原因。虽然无法消除或避免这种必然的放缓,但是我国有可能,也有能力延缓和推迟这种下降的时间,为构建高质高效的经济增长奠定基础。就近期经济增长态势而言,短期经济增长速度开始企稳回升,但容易受到国内外经济环境和政策的影响,预计2013年我国经济增长将会保持在8%左右,季度经济增长趋势呈上升的“软扩长”态势,表现出先升后降的倒U形形态。,AbstractEN:It has become consensus that the economic growth would be permanent structural slowdown, when we analysis the prospect of the medium and long-term economic growth in China. The reason would be the active macroeconomic control and the factor of economic cycle stage. China would have the ability to delay and postpone the time of this slump, and build a high quality and efficiency economic growth, although it is impossible to eliminate or avoid the inevitable slowdown. The Short-term economic growth in China has begun to stabilize and rebound, while it vulnerable to influence by the economic environment and policy of domestic and international. We argue the 2013 economic growth in China is expected to be maintained at around 8%, the quarterly economic growth trend would increase first and then decrease. And it would have a "soft expansion" trend, and take on an inverted "U" pattern.,KeyWords:7561,7691,38903,EKeyWords:8238,23801,38904,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527664,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:822AEA0F-D164-40d7-85FA-A2FF46A4CD26,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_010,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:55.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:63,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527665,DownCount:4,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2013年中国经济增长态势和经济周期波动分析,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2013年中国经济增长态势和经济周期波动分析,_RowNo:19
CommonID:DIR_10527689,ID:527689,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110082,name:B.11 中国外贸发展大趋势,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:The Analysis and Prospect of China's Economic Growth Trend in 2013,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:近年我国外贸形势呈现如下特点:进出口总体增速回落,贸易结构不断优化,贸易方式持续改善,贸易主体格局更趋合理,贸易伙伴多元化,中西部地区外贸快速增长。在新的全球贸易测算法下,我国与主要贸易伙伴的贸易差额被重新计算,结果显示,现行统计数据对差额存在夸大,贸易不平衡被过分炒作,因而我们呼吁贸易摩擦也该“停战”了。2013年,全球经济发展环境将有所改善,弱势增长将转变为温和增长。我国外贸发展面临的外部环境将好于2012年,预计2013年我国进出口贸易将增长10%~15%。,AbstractEN:In recent years, China's foreign trade situation shows the following characteristics: the overall growth rate of import and export trade has declined, the trade structure has been optimized continuously, the trade pattern keeps improving, the main body of trade becomes more reasonable, trading partners are diversified, and the foreign trade in the midwest China grows quickly. In the new global trade measurement system, the trade balances between China and its major trading partners are recalculated, and the results show that the existing statistical data has exaggerated the balances. The trade imbalances have been overstated and the trade frictions should be ended. In 2013, the global economic situation will be improved and weak growth will turn into moderate growth. The external environment that China's foreign trade facing will be better than 2012. Preliminary estimates suggest that China's foreign trade should grow by 10%~15% in 2013.,KeyWords:36350,22705,38905,EKeyWords:36367,22702,36352,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527690,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:8A786262-0189-43ba-9682-B72CCBA4E244,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_011,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:55.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:42,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527691,DownCount:10,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国外贸发展大趋势,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国外贸发展大趋势,_RowNo:20
CommonID:DIR_10527741,ID:527741,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110083,name:B.12 中国金融稳定性、金融压力状态分析与预测10131538,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:The Grand Trend of China's Foreign Trade,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:本文度量并评价了我国金融系统的稳定性状态,对金融稳定性的周期性特征进行了分析;通过选取金融变量合成中国金融压力指数,采用马尔科夫区制转移模型分析了当前我国金融压力的状态,并进一步对2013年中国金融压力进行了预测。2012年我国金融系统处于稳定的区制状态下,2012年金融压力逐渐下降,转移到了中低压力区制状态。预测表明,2013年我国金融压力将出现缓慢回升,由低压力区制向中压力区制转移,但是仍然会处于中压力区制的均值以下。,AbstractEN:In this paper, we measure and evaluate the financial stability of China's financial system, and cyclical characteristics of financial stability are analyzed as well. After selecting proper variables, we construct a financial stress index to characterize the stress state of financial system. A specific markov switching model is used to analyze current stress state of financial system and forecast the future financial stress in 2013. Analysis demonstrates that financial system was in stable regime in 2012 and financial stress decreased gradually to low-stress regime. Forecasting indicate that in 2013 the stress state of China's financial system will pick up slowly, switching from low-stress regime to mid-stress regime, but will still below the median of mid-stress regime.,KeyWords:36353,31244,20415,EKeyWords:36363,31274,32833,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527742,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:9E965D0F-BC9D-4d07-9459-16D48CDDCDF7,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_012,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:56.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:27,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527743,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国金融稳定性、金融压力状态分析与预测,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国金融稳定性、金融压力状态分析与预测,_RowNo:21
CommonID:DIR_10527769,ID:14758148,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110084,name:B.13 2012年上海证券市场回顾与2013年展望,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:The Analysis and Forecasting of China's Financial Stability and Financial Stress,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:2012年在美国经济复苏不及预期、欧债主权危机恶化、我国经济增速下滑等复杂的宏观背景下,我国A股市场整体震荡下行,上证综合指数小幅上涨2.58%,呈现明显的结构化分化特征,个股分化严重,市场整体已经进入估值历史底部区域。展望2013年,在整体经济弱复苏、上市公司业绩回升预期及通胀可能反复的背景下,A股市场难以出现持续性上涨行情,但存在较好的结构性投资机会。,AbstractEN:Under the comprehensive macro background of deteriorated European sovereign debt crisis, unsatisfactory economic recovery of USA and a slow down in China's economic growth, China's A Share Market fell with fluctuation on the whole and Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.58% with distinct structural differentiation. The ups and downs of individual stocks differentiated greatly. And the valuation of the whole market has stepped into a historical bottom area. Looking forward into the year of 2013, a continuously rising market is not expected and China's A share market may show great fluctuations with some structural investment opportunities instead under the backdrop of weak economic recovery and expectation of financial performance improvement of listed companies and inflation concern.,KeyWords:29603,8233,7892,7490,EKeyWords:29619,28724,26024,20169,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527770,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:AF51BBE3-081E-4d89-8EA9-8C215709CC72,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_013,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:56.0,ModifyUser:null,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:4,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527771,DownCount:0,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2012年上海证券市场回顾与2013年展望,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2012年上海证券市场回顾与2013年展望,_RowNo:22
CommonID:DIR_10527809,ID:527809,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110085,name:B.14 2013年中国经济增长周期态势和物价走势的分析与预测10131540,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Review and Analysis of Shanghai Securities Market in 2012 and Prospects for 2013,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:本文在搜集了大量宏观经济指标的基础上,筛选出28个景气指标,然后利用合成指数、扩散指数和预警信号系统等计量经济方法对我国经济增长周期态势和物价走势进行了测定和预测。结论如下,我国上一轮经济增长周期的下降局面已于2012年6月结束,然后在偏冷区间内缓慢回升,2013年初已回升到“正常”区间。预计2013年前三个季度我国经济都将处于增长周期的上升阶段,将在2013年9月左右达到峰,GDP增长率将达到8.3%左右;物价增长周期滞后于经济增长周期,会处于缓慢上升阶段,将在2014年3~4月左右达到峰。因此,2013年物价上涨压力不会显著增加,全年上涨将不超过3.5%。由于国内外形势仍很复杂,具有较大的不确定性,宏观调控宜“以稳为主”,根据经济运行情况,适时进行预调微调。,AbstractEN:Based on many macro-economic indicators, this paper selected 28 indexes and then measured and forecasted the economic growth cycle and price movement using composite index, diffusion index and signals of early-warning methods. The results are listed as follows. The decline of the last economic cycle was come to an end in June 2012 and the climate index was bottom off slowly during the "partial cold" interval and came into the "moderate" phase at the beginning of 2013. The economic climate is promising to increase until the third quarter of 2013 and reach the peak around September 2013. The GDP growth rate is expected to be about 8.3% within 2013. The price growth cycle lagging behind the economic growth cycle will increase slightly and reach the peak at March or April of 2014.The inflation rate will not assume significant pressure and is supposed to be at about 3.5% all year around. The macroeconomic regulation policies should keep stable and can be made little adjustment according to the economic situation due to the complicated and dubious circumstance at home and abroad.,KeyWords:22068,31238,36355,38906,EKeyWords:36364,36357,36358,36359,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527810,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:EEFB0029-1054-48b6-BA59-E13899314DA0,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_014,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:56.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:34,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527811,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2013年中国经济增长周期态势和物价走势的分析与预测,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2013年中国经济增长周期态势和物价走势的分析与预测,_RowNo:23
CommonID:DIR_10527886,ID:527886,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:110086,name:B.15 2013年中国物价趋势及调控重点,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:The Analysis and Forecasting of China's Economic Growth Cycle and Price Movement of 2013,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:527298,AbstractCH:2013年开局中国大宗商品行情出现先抑后扬的态势。由于好于预期的住房建设投资和较大的环保投资,短期的回调不影响2013年市场需求趋好态势。同时,由于需求回暖、预期增强、流动性泛滥、成本提高等因素的存在,2013年将推动大宗商品价格上行,进一步推动下游整体物价的升高。对此,提出了合理提高物价容忍度、多种手段减弱成本推力、坚决抑制投机炒作与垄断、保障商品供应稳定等具体措施。,AbstractEN:In the beginning of 2013, China's commodity prices present the situation of reducing first and increasing later. Due to the better-than-expected housing construction investment and greater investment in environmental protection, a short-term correction does not affect the 2013 market demand which is getting better and better in the whole year. At the same time, because the commodity demand is getting better, commodity situation perspective is better than expected, and the cost of commodity is increasing, in 2013, commodity prices will rise, and will further promote the overall price of downstream industry. In this regard, it is proposed to raise reasonable price tolerance, to weaken the thrust of costs by various methods, to resolutely curb speculation and monopoly, and to protect the supply of goods stably.,KeyWords:27107,36360,7523,EKeyWords:25651,36362,31275,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:527887,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,FindDate:0001-01-01 00:00:00.0,IssueDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,DocType:0,ProductSeries:null,Doi:B2B082B6-41B5-4cd6-B61A-11C86A8FDA1D,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010020580_000_015,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-01-02 09:15:56.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-09-26 17:13:48.0,HitCount:22,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:527888,DownCount:4,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:2013-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2013年中国物价趋势及调控重点,ISBN:978-7-5097-4483-3,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析——2013年春季报告,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2013年中国物价趋势及调控重点,_RowNo:24
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