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2021年中国经济分析

书 名: 2021年中国经济分析
英 文 名: ANALYSIS OF CHINA’S ECONOMY IN 2021
作 者:  李扬李平 娄峰
I S B N: 978-7-5201-9036-7
丛 书 名: 经济蓝皮书春季号
关 键 词:  中国经济 经济增长 金融稳定
出版日期: 2021-09-01

中文摘要

2021年是“十四五”规划开局之年,也是实现消除绝对贫困、全面建成小康社会,向着建成社会主义现代化强国的第二个百年奋斗目标迈进的转换之年。随着疫苗的成功研发和广泛接种使用,以及防控措施不断丰富和完善,国内零星散发疫情的负面影响逐步得到控制。但全球疫情,特别是德尔塔变异病毒广泛传播带来的负面影响,以及增发美元导致的通胀,仍然使全球经济具有很大不确定性。

2021年上半年,全球经济延续复苏势头,大宗商品价格高企,中国进出口增速进一步提高,贸易顺差高于预期,经济容易受到外部冲击,一旦外需明显减弱,我国经济将可能面临较大下行压力,不利于新发展格局的形成。

2020年中国金融稳定状况好于全球,也好于市场预期。2021年外部不确定性将给中国金融稳定和金融安全带来更多的挑战,美国实施平均通胀目标制可能引发通胀风险,美国债市场、全球债务风险以及国际重要金融市场动态等可能使得中国金融稳定面临重大的风险,同时可能与内部因素发生共振效应。

预计2021年中国经济增长8.5%左右,继续保持中高速增长,实现“十四五”规划的良好开局。第三产业增加值占比继续提高,固定资产投资、消费增速均有所回升,但内需总体偏弱,经济增长内生动力不足。促进内需提升经济增长内生动力,应强化政策的持续性、前瞻性,并适当加大支持力度。统筹好发展与安全的关系,加快产业链补短板和锻长板,注重财政、货币、房地产调控、生态环保等政策之间的协调,注重解决小微企业的实际困难。多措并举不断优化消费环境,全面发力持续提振消费信心,加快完善促进消费体制机制,进一步激发居民消费潜力,加快促进农村消费潜力释放,推动助力乡村全面振兴,加快挖掘和培育数字化消费,增强经济发展新动能。

2021年我国需要继续实施积极有为的财政政策,保持适度的政策强度,进一步优化财政支出结构,切实提高财政资源配置效率和使用效益,通过定向发力、精准施策来增强政策的针对性和有效性,逐步完善税费制度。保持银行体系流动性在总量上的合理充裕和在期限配置上的供需均衡,提升货币政策组合逆周期有效性,引导金融资源有效配置和支持实体经济发展。

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