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2014年中国经济前景分析

书 名: 2014年中国经济前景分析
英 文 名: ANALYSIS ON THE PROSPECT OF CHINA’S ECONOMY (2014)
作 者:  李平 李雪松 张平 李扬
I S B N: 978-7-5097-5861-8
丛 书 名: 经济蓝皮书春季号 订阅
关 键 词:  中国经济 经济预测 经济发展趋势 研究报告 2014
出版日期: 2014-05-01

中文摘要

当前,世界经济复苏依旧缓慢,发达国家新的增长动力尚未明朗,新兴经济体面临增长动力疲弱、结构性矛盾突出等压力,同时美国缩减QE3带来的更多不确定性,需要中国保持高度警惕。

2013年中国经济运行平稳,产业结构优化,投资增速放缓,企业效益趋稳;物价保持稳定,资金流动偏紧;外需弱势复苏,国际收支趋于平衡。受制于产能过剩、债务风险等问题,2014年固定资产投资增速将放缓,消费虽然依就稳定增长,但仍然难以成为拉动经济的主导因素,货物和服务贸易净出口将进一步减少。

中国经济经过30余年接近10%的平均增长,经济总量已经跃居世界第二,目前正转向“结构性减速”时期。2014年及今后一段时期中国经济将在较过去30年平均水平略低的、7.5%左右的平台上运行。预计2014年中国经济增长7.4%左右,增速比上年稳中略降。

当前各项稳增长措施需要温和持续,过度的刺激性政策可能带来负面影响,改革红利的释放也难以立竿见影。突出就业优先,各项宏观调控可以适当放宽经济增速的下限,使经济运行的合理区间更富弹性,以便为结构调整和改革创新留出空间。

未来中国经济长期增长仍具有较大潜力,但当前财政收入增速进入明显放缓的转型阶段。2014年积极财政政策要加大支出结构调整力度,着力提高资金使用效率;进一步推进和完善“营改增”,减轻小微企业财税负担;加快建立中央和地方财力与事权相匹配的财税体制。货币政策应适当定向宽松,以维护金融稳定,防范金融风险。灵活调整流动性操作的方向和力度,防止出现流动性风险;警惕可能集中出现的企业债务违约问题,防止发生系统性和区域性金融风险。

保持经济长期稳定增长需要推进可持续型的基础设施和新型城镇化建设,大力发展具有高附加值的现代服务业和高端制造业。要创新投融资模式,引入长期权益性社会资本,推进可持续型的基础设施和新型城镇化建设。同时打破垄断,放松准入,积极发展混合所有制经济,大力发展具有高附加值的现代服务业和高端制造业。

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CommonID:DIR_12187505,ID:2187505,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132948,name:B.1 中国经济形势分析与预测,ShortName:null,SubName:——2014年春季报告,EnTitle:Analysis and Forecast of China’s Economic Situation,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:(The Spring Report,2014),Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:本篇首先是2013年中国经济回顾与2014年预测,然后探讨了宏观调控要更加突出就业优先,适当容忍经济增速下限的下移,并对2014年宏观调控政策提出建议 ,分别是稳增长两大对策:推进可持续型的基础设施和新型城镇化建设,大力发展具有高附加值的现代服务业和高端制造业。 ,AbstractEN:

In 2013,China’s macro-economy run smoothly,the industrial structure developed in trend of optimization,the investment performed at a lower rate,and the companies benefit directed to stabilization;at the same time,the prices remained stable while the liquidity became tight in China;besides,the external demand recovered feebly,and the international payments tended to balance. However,in 2014,constrained by excess capacity,debt risk and other issues,China’s investment growth in the fixed assets would slow down. Although consumption of China remain growing steadily,it will be hard to become the dominant factor in stimulating economy. And in export,the net value of trade in goods and services will be further reduced.Over more than three decades,China enjoyed a rapid average GDP growth at nearly 10%,having been the second economy already. But now,China is undergoing an economic shifting period from “structural accelerating” to “structural decelerating”. In 2014 and the coming phases,China’s economy will run at the rate of about 7.5%,which is lower than that of the past more than three decades. According to prediction,in 2014,the rate of China’s economic growth will reach 7.4%,which is slightly lower over the last year.

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课题总负责人:李扬;执行负责人:李平、李雪松、张平;执笔:李雪松、张涛、李军、樊明太、娄峰、王文波;课题组成员:李文军、张延群、刘强、蒋金荷、刘生龙、万相昱等。

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CommonID:DIR_12187538,ID:2187538,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132949,name:B.2 2014年:中国经济增长预期目标不变,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:2014:The Expected Goal of China’s Economic Growth has Unchanged,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

2014年3月全国“两会”前夕,“今年中国经济增长预期目标究竟是多少”这一问题成为国内外关注的一个焦点。本文分析了这一情况的有关背景,阐明2014年经济增长预期目标不变的必要性和可能性。这有利于稳定社会预期,有利于为转方式和调结构、为全面深化改革创造良好的宏观和微观经济环境。同时指出,实现这一预期目标必须付出艰辛的努力。

,AbstractEN:

On the eve of “NPC & CPPCC annual sessions” in March 2014,“the expected goal of China’s economic growth this year exactly how much” problem became a focus of attention at home and abroad.This paper analyzes the relevant background of this case,to demonstrate the necessity and possibility of this year’s economic growth goal unchanged.This is good for stable social expectations,to conducive to create a good macro and micro-economic environment for structural adjustment and comprehensively deepen reforms.This paper also pointed out that to achieve the expected goal must make arduous efforts.

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刘树成,中国社会科学院学部委员、经济学部副主任。

"},"Liu Shucheng":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2014年:中国经济增长预期目标不变,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2014年:中国经济增长预期目标不变,_RowNo:6
CommonID:DIR_12187556,ID:2187556,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132950,name:B.3 重视目前经济社会发展中存在的矛盾和问题,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Focus on the Current Social and Economic Contradictions and Problems,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

我国当前宏观经济形势总体向好,呈现稳中求进的趋势,但是还有以下困难需要面对。第一,经济稳中向好的基础不牢固,增长的内生动力需增强。第二,财政、金融、房地产等领域存在风险隐患,部分行业产能严重过剩,宏观调控难度增大。第三,农业增产、农民增收难度加大。第四,部分地区污染严重,节能减排任务艰巨。第五,就业结构性矛盾突出。第六,民生问题依然突出。对此,各级政府应该针对上述问题扎实解决。

,AbstractEN:

China’s current macroeconomic situation is generally in good condition,showing a trend of progress while maintaining stability;however,there are some difficulties as following.Firstly,the foundation of economy,which leads to progress while maintaining stability,is not solid,and the endogenous motivation of macro-economy needs to enhance.Secondly,finance,banking,real estate and other areas are threaded by potential risks,and serious excess capacity in some industrial sectors results in the macro-control into more difficult condition.Thirdly,it’s difficult to increase the agricultural production and farmers’ income.Fourthly,arduous pollution and energy saving task exist in some areas.Fifthly,employment structural conflict is significant.Finally,livelihood issues are still outstanding.In this regard,the government should address the problem and take into solid solution.

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汪同三,中国社会科学院学部委员,研究员。

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在“稳增长、调结构、促改革”的政策取向影响下,2012年7月开始我国经济增长周期波动走出谷底,进入上升阶段,随后2013年9月达到峰,转入下降阶段,但是本轮景气循环波动幅度较小。在宏观调控政策无大调整的情况下,景气回落的局面将延续至2014年8~10月,下半年将触底回升,但幅度将比较平缓。预计2014年上半年经济景气将在“浅蓝灯区”上部运行,下半年将会回升到“绿灯区”。在经济平稳增长的情形下,2014年物价水平将总体保持平稳增长态势。在我国深化改革的“换挡期”,国际国内环境复杂多变,经济运行上半年具有下行趋势,为保持经济平稳增长,上半年宏观政策取向应适当宽松,同时根据经济形势变化适时适度进行调整。

,AbstractEN:

Influenced by the policy of “Stabilize growth,Adjust structure,Promote reform”,the peak in the ascent stage of business growth cycle from July 2012 has appeared in September 2013 and then business growth cycle began to decline with small amplitude.Assuming no extensive policy adjustments,the downtrend situation of climate index will persist to June or August and gradually bottom out in the second half of 2014.The climate index is expected to run within the upper interval of “light blue regime” and “green regime” in the first and second half of 2014 respectively.In the condition of steady economic growth,the price level will generally maintain stable situation in 2014.The situation home and abroad is complex and changeable while the economic operation has considerable uncertainty in the shift period of deepening reform.The macro economic policy should follow the principle of “make progress in stability”.Specifically,the policy should be relatively easing and timely appropriate adjusted according to the economic circumstance.

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孔宪丽,经济学博士,博士后,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院副教授

"},"高铁梅":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

高铁梅,东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心副主任,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院教授,博士生导师

"},"张同斌":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

张同斌,经济学博士,东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院讲师。

"},"Kong Xianli":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Gao Tiemei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhang Tongbin":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2014年中国宏观经济波动及走势的分析与预测,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2014年中国宏观经济波动及走势的分析与预测,_RowNo:8
CommonID:DIR_12187624,ID:2187624,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132952,name:B.5 2014年农业发展的评价与思考,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Evaluation and Thinking of Agricultural Development in 2014,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

2014年,农业生产稳中有升,农民年人均纯收入有望越过10000元台阶。在土地流转、生产分工和产业升级的拉动下,将形成家庭农场、专业大户、农民专业合作社和农业公司充分竞争、共同发展的局面。农业基本经营制度建设将取得实质性的进展,中国农业也将进一步转型。

,AbstractEN:

In 2014,agricultural product grows steady,and the net income per capita of farmers is expected to exceed the level of 10000 Yuan.In the pull strength of the land transfer,the production division of labor and the industrial upgrading,China’s agricultural will form a family farm,specialized large farm,specialized farm cooperatives and agricultural companies,and form a fully competitive and common development situation.The basic operating system of agricultural building will achieve substantive progress,and China’s agriculture will make a further transformation.

,KeyWords:32939,36330,54333,EKeyWords:32942,36333,95362,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:2187625,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010030130_000_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-06-09 14:27:04.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:06:36.0,HitCount:108,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2187626,DownCount:52,AuthorInfos:{"李周":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

李周,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所所长,研究员。

"},"Li Zhou":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2014年农业发展的评价与思考,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2014年农业发展的评价与思考,_RowNo:9
CommonID:DIR_12187679,ID:2187679,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132953,name:B.6 工业经济形势及趋势分析,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:The Analysis of Industrial Economic Situation and Trend,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

2013年中国工业实现了平稳较快增长,总体上呈现前低后高的走势。分产业看,不同行业增速出现分化,部分高加工度行业加快回升。分地区来看,东部地区积极回升,但增速仍低于中西部。出口增长仍较为低迷,下半年以来有所回升。工业企业效益明显好转,但工业投资增速仍处于较低水平,说明企业家信心尚未恢复。2014年中国工业面临着很多新的形势。从外部环境来看,世界经济恢复步伐加快,进出口贸易将逐步回升,但仍存在较大不确定性;全球金融环境将有所收紧,但货币供应总体依然宽松。从内部环境来看,工业经济进入“换挡”期,产能过剩等结构性问题更加突出,全面深化改革将加快工业转型升级进展。预计2014年工业经济增长仍处于总体可控范围内,维持在9.5%左右,全年呈“先抑后稳”走势。

,AbstractEN:

In 2013 China’s industry achieved a steady and rapid economic growth,which is low in the first and the high in the second.From the view of industries,different industry growth appears different,and some high processing industry speeds up recovery.In regional perspective,the eastern region rebounds actively,but the growth rate is still lower than the central and the western.Export growth is still depressed,but it rises again in the second half of the year.Besides,efficiency of industrial enterprises has markedly improved,but the industrial investment growth rate is still at a low level,which reflects the entrepreneur confidence has not yet resumed.In 2014,China’s industry is faced with many new situations.From the external environment,the pace of world economic recovery speeds up,import and export trade will gradually rise,but there are still large uncertainties.Global financial environment tighten while the overall of money supply is still loose.From the internal environment,industrial economy enters a shift period,the structural problems such as capacity excess are more prominent,and the deepen reform accelerates the upgrading of.industrial transformation.It is estimated that the overall of the industrial economic growth in 2014 is still in the controllable range,which maintains at about 9.5%,and the annual industrial economic growth will show a trend of suppression first before stability.

,KeyWords:21755,35753,24457,EKeyWords:21757,77091,37578,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:2187680,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010030130_000_006,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-06-09 14:27:04.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:06:36.0,HitCount:41,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2187681,DownCount:29,AuthorInfos:{"金碚":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

金碚,中国社会科学院学部委员,研究员

"},"原磊":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

原磊,中国社会科学院工业经济研究所工业运行研究室副主任,副研究员。

"},"Jin Bei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Yuan Lei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:工业经济形势及趋势分析,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:工业经济形势及趋势分析,_RowNo:10
CommonID:DIR_12187739,ID:2187739,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132954,name:B.7 现阶段我国产能过剩的特征、发展趋势与政策建议,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Characteristics,Development Trend and Policy Recommendations of Excess Capacity in China’s Industrial Sector,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

2012年以来,我国工业部门产能过剩问题尤为突出,传统制造业和新兴产业产能普遍过剩。2013年,工业总体产能利用率略有回升,部分严重产能过剩的行业市场需求趋暖,经营情况有所好转,但仍处于较低水平,面临较严峻的产能过剩态势。地方政府在招商引资领域的恶性竞争是导致本轮产能过剩的深层次原因,产业政策上存在缺陷是推动产能过剩形成的重要原因,部分行业国有企业改革滞后加重了产能过剩的严重程度。政府应在建立健全化解和防范产能过剩长效机制的基础上,针对不同行业产能过剩的现状、发展趋势与特征,调整和完善化解产能过剩的分业施策方案。

,AbstractEN:

The problem of excess production capacity in China’s industrial sector was particularly prominent in 2012,and capacities of traditional manufacturing industry and the emerging industry were excess.In 2013,the overall industrial production capacity utilization rises slightly.Demands and business situations of some serious overcapacity industry markets improve,but still at a low level and face a serious excess capacity situation.The deep-seated reasons that caused the excess capacity are the local government competition in the investment field.Industry policy defects are the important reason of excess capacity in some industries,and the reform of state-owned enterprises make the situation worse.The government should establish long-term mechanism to resolve and prevent the excess capacity on the present situation,and make separate implementing scheme to adjust and improve solutions based on the excess capacity,development tendency and the characteristic of different industries.

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李平,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所所长、研究员

"},"江飞涛":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

江飞涛,中国社会科学院工业经济研究所副主任、副研究员

"},"李晓萍":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

李晓萍,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所博士后。

"},"Li Ping et al.":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:现阶段我国产能过剩的特征、发展趋势与政策建议,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:现阶段我国产能过剩的特征、发展趋势与政策建议,_RowNo:11
CommonID:DIR_12187775,ID:2187775,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132955,name:B.8 深化财税体制改革基本路线分析,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Analysis of Deepening Fiscal Reform,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

目前我国的财税体制可以分为财政收入体制、财政支出体制、预算管理体制和财政管理体制四个方面。由于我国现行的税收结构失衡问题突出,间接税收入与直接税收入之比约为7∶3,这导致与当前的国内外经济社会形势冲突迭起。目前税收改革应着力于增加直接税。在财政支出改革方面应稳定规模与调整结构并重。而在预算管理改革方面,由于我国政府预算口径大于公共财政预算口径,因此需要建立规范透明的全口径预算管理。在财政体制改革方面,则需要坚守本来意义上的分税制。

,AbstractEN:

At present,China’s tax reform can be divided into four areas of fiscal revenue system,fiscal expenditure structure,budget management system and financial management system.Due to the current tax structure prominent imbalances,such as the ratio of indirect and direct taxes income is about 7∶3,which leads to economic and social conflict in the current domestic and international environments,so the current tax reform should focus on increasing direct tax.In areas of expenditure reforms,we should focus on both stabilizing the tax size and the adjusting tax structural.While,in areas of budget management reform,because our government budget diameter greater than that of the public budget,and therefore,we should establish a standardized,transparent and full-bore budget management.In areas of financial reform,we need to stick to the original meaning of the tax system.

,KeyWords:87383,128961,EKeyWords:94298,128962,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:2187776,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010030130_000_008,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-06-09 14:27:05.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:06:36.0,HitCount:32,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2187777,DownCount:21,AuthorInfos:{"高培勇":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

高培勇,中国社会科学院学部委员,研究员。

"},"Gao Peiyong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:深化财税体制改革基本路线分析,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:深化财税体制改革基本路线分析,_RowNo:12
CommonID:DIR_12187817,ID:2187817,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132956,name:B.9 2014年中国金融状况分析与展望10483148,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Analysis and Outlook of Financial Conditions in 2014,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

本文基于高维贝叶斯动态因子模型借助大数据技术构建了中国的货币市场金融状况指数,刻画了我国2001年1月至2013年12月货币市场的风险压力状况。我们进一步利用区制分析、相关性分析和ARIMA(4,1,3)模型来对金融状况指数进行短期预测和长期预测,实证结果均证实2014年我国的货币市场运行状况具有明显的不稳定性,市场面临大概率下行风险。

,AbstractEN:

This paper builds financial conditions index for China based on large Bayesian dynamic factor model with big data techniques.The financial conditions index accurately depicts risk stress conditions in the money market between January,2001 and December,2013.We further use regime analysis,correlation analysis and ARIMA(4,1,3)model to predict the financial conditions index in the short-run and in the long-run.The results show that China’s money market operation conditions are obvious instable during 2014,the market faces a highly probability of downside risk.

,KeyWords:128963,128964,EKeyWords:128965,128966,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:2187818,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010030130_000_009,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-06-09 14:27:05.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:06:36.0,HitCount:77,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2187819,DownCount:33,AuthorInfos:{"陈守东":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

陈守东,吉林大学数量经济研究中心副主任,教授,博士生导师

"},"易晓溦":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

易晓溦,吉林大学商学院博士研究生。

"},"Chen Shoudong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Yi Xiaowei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2014年中国金融状况分析与展望,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2014年中国金融状况分析与展望,_RowNo:13
CommonID:DIR_12187861,ID:2187861,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132957,name:B.10 汇率改革以来中国外贸数据分析,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Analysis of Chinese Foreign Trade Data Since the Reform of Exchange Rate,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

考察2005年汇率改革以来,我国对外贸易数据的走势。从人民币汇率、出口竞争力、国际市场、外汇流动情况等方面,分析2005~2012年我国外贸数据以及数据被高估的问题。我国贸易统计原则存在局限性,要从根本上解决这种统计方式导致的贸易数据虚高问题,需要完善我国的外贸数据统计制度,改革人民币汇率体制机制,严惩虚假贸易,同时加强对资本项目和内部金融资本的管理。

,AbstractEN:

This paper studies trends of China’s foreign trade data since the exchange rate reform from 2005.From the RMB exchange rate,export competitiveness,the international market,foreign exchange liquidity situation,we analysis China’s foreign trade data and the problem of the data overrated in 2005-2012.Principle of China’s trade statistics has limitations,to fundamentally solve the trade data overrated caused by the statistical pattern,we need to improve the foreign trade data of China’s statistical system,reform RMB exchange rate mechanism,implement an appropriate monetary policy,punish false trade,and strengthen the capital and financial capital management at the same time.

,KeyWords:128967,7712,22967,7490,EKeyWords:128968,20715,22971,20169,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:2187862,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010030130_000_010,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-06-09 14:27:05.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:06:36.0,HitCount:36,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2187863,DownCount:15,AuthorInfos:{"裴长洪":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

裴长洪,中国社会科学院经济研究所所长,研究员

"},"沈嘉":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

沈嘉,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所助理研究员。

"},"Pei Changhong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Shen Jia":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:汇率改革以来中国外贸数据分析,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:汇率改革以来中国外贸数据分析,_RowNo:14
CommonID:DIR_12187920,ID:2187920,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132958,name:B.11 中国金融形势与货币政策,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:China’s Financial Situation and Monetary Policy,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

在金融危机依旧冲击实体经济,世界经济依旧低迷,中国正处于过度扩张政策的消化期,经济结构调整的阵痛期和换挡期的背景下,2014年前两月,M2的增长率分别为13.2%和13.3%,与2012年上半年大体相当。在2013年,我国货币供应量与基础货币、信贷、社会融资规模、金融机构存款、货币市场、资本市场以及外汇储备与外汇市场都基本出现一定的向好趋势。在经济增长面临下行压力的情况下,2013年中国货币政策操作坚持稳中求进的总基调,采取公开市场操作等一系列货币政策操作。展望2014年,虽然受到美国和日本公共债务居高不下,美国QE退出前景逐步明朗化等遗留问题的影响,中国整体形势可望略好于2013年。

,AbstractEN:

Under the background of the impact of that the financial crisis is still in the real economy,the world economy remains in the doldrums,China is in a period of economic restructuring and the shifting,the first two months of 2014,M2 growth rates were 13.2% and 13.3%,equally with the first half of 2012.In 2013,China’s money supply and monetary base,credit,financing scale,social financial institutions,money market,capital market,foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange markets are directing to a certain good condition.In the case of downward pressure on economic growth,the 2013 Chinese monetary policy operations adhere to the overall tone while maintaining stability,monetary policy operations take a series of open market operations.By outlook of 2014,despite of high public debt in the United States and Japan,QE exiting and other problems,the overall situation in China is expected to slightly better than 2013.

,KeyWords:25768,7490,7499,EKeyWords:27201,128969,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:2187921,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010030130_000_011,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-06-09 14:27:05.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:06:36.0,HitCount:49,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2187922,DownCount:29,AuthorInfos:{"彭兴韵":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

彭兴韵,中国社会科学院金融研究所货币理论与货币政策研究室主任,副研究员

"},"董昀":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

董昀,中国社会科学院金融研究所。

"},"Peng Xingyun":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Dong Yun":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国金融形势与货币政策,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国金融形势与货币政策,_RowNo:15
CommonID:DIR_12187971,ID:2187971,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132959,name:B.12 2014年中国商品市场新动力,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:New Impetuses of China Commodity Market in 2014,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

2014年以来,中国大宗商品市场增长的新动力凸显,支撑其回升。首先是发达国家经济的复苏,对中国经济利好已显现。其次是“热钱”出境减缓了人民币升值的压力。再次是决策部门出台“稳增长”举措增加了国内市场需求,同时经济结构调整没有改变大宗商品需求增长局面。最后是劳动力、环保、能源等成本要素的全面提高,增加实体经济需求与抬高价格底部。

,AbstractEN:

Since 2014,new growth impetuses of Chinese commodity market,which support its recovery,have became obvious.The factors are as following.Firstly,economic recovery in developed countries has led to the positive trends of Chinese economy.Secondly,“hot money” exiting has slowed the pressure of RMB appreciation.Thirdly,decision-making departments issuing “steady growth” measure has resulted in the increase of domestic demand,while adjusting the economic structure has not changed the situation of growth in demand for commodities.Finally comprehensively improvement of labor,environmental,energy and other cost elements,has increased the economic demand and has raised the real economy bottom prices.

,KeyWords:71133,99511,20678,EKeyWords:70847,128970,20680,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:2187972,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010030130_000_012,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-06-09 14:27:05.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:06:36.0,HitCount:33,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2187973,DownCount:22,AuthorInfos:{"陈克新":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

陈克新,兰格经济研究中心首席分析师。

"},"Chen Kexin":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:2014年中国商品市场新动力,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:2014年中国商品市场新动力,_RowNo:16
CommonID:DIR_12187984,ID:2187984,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132960,name:B.13 论中国对外贸易十大关系,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Ten Major Relations on China Foreign Trade,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

中国对外贸易发展经验告诉我们:要坚持平等互利的发展理念,要坚持改革开放的基本方针,要坚持主动参与经济全球化的战略。本文围绕中国对外贸易中的十个重要问题,也即十大关系,阐述如何立足中国,放眼世界,充分调动国内外一切直接的、间接的积极因素,开创我国对外开放新格局。

,AbstractEN:

The experience of China’s foreign trade development tells us:we should adhere to the development concept of equality and mutual benefit,adhere to the guiding principle of reform and opening-up,adhere to the strategic orientation of active participation in the process of economic globalization.The paper focuses on the ten important issues or ten major relations of China’s foreign trade,and expounds how to be based in China,think globally,fully mobilize all direct and indirect positive factors at home and abroad,and create a new pattern of China’s opening up.

,KeyWords:128971,128972,22940,70515,EKeyWords:67675,128973,50590,128974,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:2187985,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010030130_000_013,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-06-09 14:27:05.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:06:36.0,HitCount:40,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2187986,DownCount:24,AuthorInfos:{"金柏松":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

金柏松,商务部研究院。

"},"刘建颖":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

刘建颖,商务部研究院。

"},"Jin Bosong":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Liu Jianying":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:论中国对外贸易十大关系,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:论中国对外贸易十大关系,_RowNo:17
CommonID:DIR_12188064,ID:2188064,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132961,name:B.14 欲速则不达,ShortName:null,SubName:——超越增长能力的劳动力市场后果,EnTitle:Haste Brings No Success,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:How Might A Stimulation Policy Harm Labor Market?,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

中国经济增长的减速,是人口红利消失导致的供给方因素减弱所致,而不是需求方的冲击所致,因此,实施大规模刺激性政策是错误的选项。除了不恰当的刺激政策可能造就僵尸企业和僵尸金融、造成实体经济和基础设施产能过剩、流动性溢出形成泡沫经济之外,借助刺激性政策尝试超越潜在增长率还会扭曲劳动力市场信号,造成教育负激励和工资超越劳动生产率的更快上涨,从而伤害中国经济长期增长的可持续性。研究显示,公共政策改革可以提高潜在增长率、平衡经济增长需求结构和减缓工资上涨压力,进而在人口红利消失之后收取改革红利。

,AbstractEN:

This paper asserts that the economic slowdown in China is caused by the short-term demandside shock but not by supplyside factors- namely,the disappearance of demographic dividend.Therefore,implementing stimulation policy is a wrong choice in the face of the slowdown.In addition to creating zombie firms and zombie financial institutions,resulting in overcapacity in real economy and infrastructure,and forming economic bubbles,stimulation policy also tends to harm labor market.That is,a growth rate exceeding growth capacity tends to distort labor market signals by weakening incentive for education and inflating wage rate in faster pace than that of the increase in labor productivity.The paper suggests that instead of implementing stimulation policy,reform of public policy can help enhance potential growth rate,balance demand factors of the growth,and ease the pressure of labor cost increase.

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蔡昉,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所所长,研究员。

"},"Cai Fang":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:欲速则不达——超越增长能力的劳动力市场后果,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:欲速则不达——超越增长能力的劳动力市场后果,_RowNo:18
CommonID:DIR_12188083,ID:2188083,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132962,name:B.15 工资应该上涨吗,ShortName:null,SubName:——对我国工薪劳动者工资水平变化的观察与分析,EnTitle:Should the Wages be Increased?,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:—Observation on Changes of Employee’s Compensation in China,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

本文通过估算工薪劳动者总量以及工薪劳动报酬总额,计算全部工薪劳动者工资水平及其变化;通过把名义工资与经济增长相联系,了解全部工薪劳动者平均工资以及不同部门和行业的工资实际变化状况,并与企业利润变化相联系来探讨工资增长的合理空间。本文得出的结论认为,我国工薪劳动者工资水平确实到了该涨的时候,而且越是低收入群体的工资越应该上涨;从部门看最需要涨工资的是非国有部门,从行业来看最需要涨工资的是竞争性行业。实现工资上涨的关键是健全市场条件下工资合理增长机制。

,AbstractEN:

By estimating total number of employees and their total compensation,we calculate the wages of wage workers,analyzing the real change of wages in comparison of nominal wage growth with GDP growth,discussing the growth possibility of wages in terms of changes of enterprise profits.It concludes that the average wages in China are indeed ought to be increased while the lower the wage payer should be more increased.In terms of wages increase,non-state sector and the competitive industries are the priority areas.The key of increasing wages is to building-up market mechanism of rational growth of wages in China.

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张车伟,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所副所长、研究员

"},"赵文":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

赵文,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所助理研究员。

"},"Zhang Juwei":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhao Wen":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:工资应该上涨吗——对我国工薪劳动者工资水平变化的观察与分析,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:工资应该上涨吗——对我国工薪劳动者工资水平变化的观察与分析,_RowNo:19
CommonID:DIR_12188140,ID:2188140,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132963,name:B.16 新型城镇化进程中面临的资源环境挑战与化解途径,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Challenges of Resources and Environment during New Pattern Urbanization Process and Possible Solutions,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

快速的城镇化发展道路面临各种资源和环境的约束和挑战,严重制约了经济和城镇未来的可持续发展。中国的城镇化进程中已经出现资源承载能力不足、环境污染问题严重、生态风险增加和应对气候变化的不确定性等一系列问题。新型城镇化的本质应该是资源节约、环境友好的,是全面、协调、可持续的。因此在未来的城镇化发展过程中,应该顺应自然,划定生态红线,科学规划城镇布局,均衡配置公共资源,合理发挥政府和市场的引导作用。通过打造清洁宜居城市,鼓励开发和应用环保技术,支持环保产业,建设示范社区以及打造低碳韧性城市等路径,化解各种严峻的资源短缺和环境污染问题。

,AbstractEN:

Rapid urbanization is faced with various resources constraint and environmental challenges,which restrict the future economic and urban sustainable development.Some severe problems are already created during China’s urbanization process,including overload of resource carrying capacity,significant environmental pollution,increased ecological risk and uncertainty of climate change.The nature of new pattern urbanization should be resources conserving,environmental friendly and sustainable.To solve these problems in the future urbanization process,all the development should comply with the nature;some ecological redline should be determined and protected;the urbanization planning should be scientific;the public resources should be equally distributed;government and market should appropriately direct the relevant activities.Some practical ways,including building clean and liveable cities,encouraging the development and application of environmental technologies,supporting environmental industries,establishing pioneer communities and building low-carbon resilient cities,should be adopted to settle various severe resources shortage and environmental pollutions.

,KeyWords:8614,40907,EKeyWords:128982,42335,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:2188141,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010030130_000_016,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-06-09 14:27:06.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:06:36.0,HitCount:56,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2188142,DownCount:40,AuthorInfos:{"潘家华":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

潘家华,中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所所长,研究员

"},"张莹":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

张莹,中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,副研究员。

"},"Pan Jiahua":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhang Ying":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:新型城镇化进程中面临的资源环境挑战与化解途径,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:新型城镇化进程中面临的资源环境挑战与化解途径,_RowNo:20
CommonID:DIR_12188203,ID:2188203,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132964,name:B.17 中国节能减排与环境保护形势分析,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:Situation Analysis of China’s Energy-saving Emission Reduction and Environmental Protection,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

“十二五”以来,我国节能减排和环境保护取得很大成绩,但节能减排形势仍然存在较大压力,节能减排和环境保护中出现新问题。目前我国仍然处于工业化、城市化的高速发展进期,经济增长、生活水平提高与能源消费和环境保护之间的矛盾也处于激化阶段。污染减排压力从根本上说是由于资源消耗持续增长带来的。为了切实推进污染减排,建议长短期措施结合,深化创新增长文化,实现环境保护的全国异地统一执法,加大循环经济和环保产业发展力度,从根本上改变环境污染。

,AbstractEN:

Since the “Twelfth Five Year Plan”,China has made great achievements in energy-saving emission reduction and environmental protection,but the energy-saving emission reduction situation is still on great pressure,and new problems appear in the energy-saving emission reduction and environmental protection.At present,our country is still in the development period of industrialization and urbanization.Economic growth,improve the standard of living and the energy consumption and the environmental protection contradiction is in the intensification stage.The pollution reduction pressure is caused by resource consumption continued growth.In order to effectively promote pollution reduction,we suggest propose long-term measurement combines with the short-term measures,deepen the innovation and growth of culture,achieve the same environmental protection law in different regions,intensify the development of recycling economy and environmental protection industry,so that change the environment pollution situation fundamentally.

,KeyWords:7548,8386,21783,EKeyWords:61427,20385,21785,SubjectWords:,LiteratureId:2188204,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201311010030130_000_017,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:admin,AddTime:2014-06-09 14:27:06.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:06:36.0,HitCount:54,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2188205,DownCount:30,AuthorInfos:{"齐建国":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

齐建国,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所副所长,研究员

"},"尤完":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

尤完,北京建筑大学工程管理研究所所长,教授。

"},"Qi Jianguo":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"You Wan":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国节能减排与环境保护形势分析,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国节能减排与环境保护形势分析,_RowNo:21
CommonID:DIR_12188241,ID:2188241,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:132965,name:B.18 以开放促进改革,ShortName:null,SubName:——中国(上海)自由贸易试验区相关回顾和展望,EnTitle:To Carry out Reform with More Opening,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:—The Review and Prospect of Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone,Level:0,BookId:2187492,AbstractCH:

2013年9月,上海自贸区正式挂牌,负面清单等相关管理规定正式落地。同年12月,中国人民银行出台关于金融支持自贸区建设的相关意见。通过增大相关领域的开放力度,中国(上海)自由贸易试验区将对现有行政体系、投资管理、金融和贸易领域进行全方位的改革试验。展望2014年,随着自贸区人民币跨境支付等相关管理规定的正式推出,上海自贸区将为全国更大范围内的深化改革积累宝贵的经验。

,AbstractEN:

The Shanghai Free Trade Zone was officially on board from Sep 2013.Many administration rules such as the negative list released at the same day.On December,PBOC announced its own financial policies for Shanghai Free Trade Zone.The Zone will undertake full range of reform the current public administration system,investment,trade and financial administration.If we look forward to 2014,with the releasing of CNY cross-boarder policy of Shanghai FTZ,the zone will take more experience for the deeper nationwide reform.

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李刘阳,上海社会科学院数量经济研究中心

"},"朱平芳":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":null,"Blurb":"

朱平芳,上海社会科学院数量经济研究中心。

"},"Li Liuyang":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"Zhu Pingfang":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:2014-05-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:以开放促进改革——中国(上海)自由贸易试验区相关回顾和展望,ISBN:978-7-5097-5861-8,BookTitle:2014年中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:以开放促进改革——中国(上海)自由贸易试验区相关回顾和展望,_RowNo:22
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