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中国经济前景分析

书 名: 中国经济前景分析
英 文 名: The Analysis of Chinese Economic Prospect
作 者:  刘国光王洛林 李京文 刘树成 汪同三
I S B N: 7-80149-177-7
丛 书 名: 经济蓝皮书春季号 订阅
关 键 词:  经济预测 中国 1999
出版日期: 1999-04-01

中文摘要

本书分析了中国经济前景,从消费需求;财政政策及财政收支预测;货币政策分析与展望;农民收入和农村市场分析与预测;经济增长的波动态势分析与预测;对外贸易发展的若干分析与展望;资本流动与国际收支的分析与展望 ;产业结构现状分析与趋势预测;国有企业改革与发展的对策分析等方面进行了具体阐述。
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CommonID:DIR_12847743,ID:2847743,SiteID:14,Type:formerAidText,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:140105,name:编者前言,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2847737,AbstractCH:null,AbstractEN:null,KeyWords:null,EKeyWords:null,SubjectWords:null,LiteratureId:2847744,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:Y,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:null,XmlID:null,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:fanlanlan,AddTime:2014-09-30 10:32:47.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:30:16.0,HitCount:0,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:0,DownCount:0,AuthorInfos:null,BookPublishDate:1999-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:编者前言,ISBN:7-80149-177-7,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:编者前言,_RowNo:2
CommonID:DIR_12847745,ID:2847745,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:140106,name:中国经济形势分析与预测10575484,ShortName:null,SubName:(1999年春季报告),EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2847737,AbstractCH:本文首先阐述了主要国民经济指标预测,从总量及产业指标;全社会固定资产投资;价格;居民收入与消费等方面进行了具体阐述。其次介绍了宏观经济形势分析:价格水平下降的趋势仍在继续;外贸出口呈负增长趋势,对 G D P 增长的贡献仍为负值;非国有投资仍未有效启动等。接着分析了关于扩大内需的问题:扩大投资需求;扩大消费需求。然后介绍了关于目前宏观调控政策的问题:货币政策与财政政策的配合;进一步全面用好财政政策。最后提出了政策建议: 理顺收入分配关系,逐步提高居民收入;投资消费双向启动,加强启动消费力度;全面落实财政政策,有效用好财政资源等。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:22897,20415,7714,7357,EKeyWords:139390,172656,36348,8002,SubjectWords:214751,LiteratureId:2847746,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201405010040320_000_001,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:fanlanlan,AddTime:2014-09-30 10:32:47.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:30:16.0,HitCount:12,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2847747,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:,BookPublishDate:1999-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:中国经济形势分析与预测(1999年春季报告),ISBN:7-80149-177-7,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:中国经济形势分析与预测(1999年春季报告),_RowNo:3
CommonID:DIR_12847776,ID:12980733,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:140107,name:消费需求分析,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2847737,AbstractCH:本文首先阐述了关于指标选择问题:分析了为什么要选择不变价指标,为什么选择国内生产总值(GDP);其次介绍了居民收入增长状况:1981~1998 年居民收入增长的总体状况; 影响居民收入增长的因素分析。然后阐述了消费增长与消费率及储蓄率的变化:“七五”以来中国消费增长与GDP增长的基本格局;关于其他制约消费增长的因素分析。最后介绍了19 86~1998年积累率的变动。 ,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:31734,23009,25709,EKeyWords:30738,169252,27103,SubjectWords:214753,LiteratureId:2847777,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201405010040320_000_002,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:fanlanlan,AddTime:2014-09-30 10:32:47.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:30:16.0,HitCount:19,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2847778,DownCount:5,AuthorInfos:{"赵京兴":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:1999-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:消费需求分析,ISBN:7-80149-177-7,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:消费需求分析,_RowNo:4
CommonID:DIR_12847811,ID:2847811,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:140108,name:财政政策分析与财政收支预测,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2847737,AbstractCH:本文首先阐述了中国政府收入现状。其次分析了1998年的财政收支和政策。然后介绍了中国国债情况。最后提出了政策建议:继续采取扩张性的财政政策;减轻税费,涵养社会的投资和发展能力;加强对教育的投入;加强财政政策与货币政策的协调;发行适当数量、长期的特种国债。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:173021,7488,47844,EKeyWords:173022,32307,87722,SubjectWords:226373,LiteratureId:2847812,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201405010040320_000_003,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:fanlanlan,AddTime:2014-09-30 10:32:48.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:30:16.0,HitCount:20,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2847813,DownCount:5,AuthorInfos:{"朱运法":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:1999-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:财政政策分析与财政收支预测,ISBN:7-80149-177-7,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:财政政策分析与财政收支预测,_RowNo:5
CommonID:DIR_12847840,ID:2847840,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:140109,name:货币政策分析与展望,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2847737,AbstractCH:本文首先回顾了1998年货币政策:基础货币量减少;货币乘数增大;金融机构贷款增长速度下降;利率政策的有效性。其次展望了1999年货币政策:货币政策目标与货币政策的联系;进一步降息的制约因素;19货币政策和财政政策的配合等。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:7490,32797,161775,EKeyWords:20169,173026,173027,167197,167198,SubjectWords:226374,LiteratureId:2847841,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201405010040320_000_004,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:fanlanlan,AddTime:2014-09-30 10:32:48.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:30:16.0,HitCount:22,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2847842,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:{"余永定":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"张延群":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:1999-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:货币政策分析与展望,ISBN:7-80149-177-7,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:货币政策分析与展望,_RowNo:6
CommonID:DIR_12847881,ID:2847881,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:140110,name:农民收入和农村市场分析与预测,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2847737,AbstractCH:本文首先阐述了农民收入趋缓,增收渠道减少。其次介绍了农村市场潜力巨大:农村消费的总量、结构和基本走势,需求、供给与市场条件对农村消费的影响。接着描述了开拓农村市场对中国经济的影响。最后介绍了近期趋势的简要预测与政策建议:继续增加农业投资;调整和优化农业结构;支持乡镇企业的发展等。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:21679,24587,25709,20780,EKeyWords:173030,20349,27103,23023,SubjectWords:214759,LiteratureId:2847882,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201405010040320_000_005,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:fanlanlan,AddTime:2014-09-30 10:32:48.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:30:16.0,HitCount:18,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2847883,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:{"张晓山":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"李成贵":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:1999-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:农民收入和农村市场分析与预测,ISBN:7-80149-177-7,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:农民收入和农村市场分析与预测,_RowNo:7
CommonID:DIR_12847916,ID:2847916,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:140111,name:经济增长的波动态势分析与预测10575504,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2847737,AbstractCH:本文首先分析了新阶段中国经济增长波动的新特点,新机制:决定中国经济增长的国内市场;中国经济增长的体制基础及运行制度;调控方式等。接着介绍了驾驭新一轮增长波动的政策选择:要把握历史机遇,积极利用经济增长;要继续积极追踪、密切监视经济增长;积极驾驭新阶段中国经济的增长波动。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:7561,182799,182800,31209,EKeyWords:8238,182801,182802,31211,SubjectWords:214760,LiteratureId:2847917,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201405010040320_000_006,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:fanlanlan,AddTime:2014-09-30 10:32:48.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:30:16.0,HitCount:19,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2847918,DownCount:5,AuthorInfos:{"樊明太":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:1999-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:经济增长的波动态势分析与预测,ISBN:7-80149-177-7,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:经济增长的波动态势分析与预测,_RowNo:8
CommonID:DIR_12847941,ID:2847941,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:140112,name:对外贸易发展的若干分析与展望,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2847737,AbstractCH:本文首先阐述了中国对外贸易对经济增长的影响及意义,从中国经济对对外贸易的依存度;对外贸易对中国经济发展的贡献率;对外贸易对中国经济发展的意义等方面进行了具体分析。其次分析了98年中国进出口贸易的特点:进出口贸易明显受亚洲金融危机的影响;出口增长主要靠加工贸易拉动;外商投资企业成为出口贸易的生力军等。最后阐述了围绕贸易发展的若干讨论:人民币汇率应当保持稳定,还是贬值;出口退税是不是人民币的变相贬值等。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:7712,7561,22705,25184,EKeyWords:20715,8238,22702,25363,SubjectWords:214761,LiteratureId:2847942,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201405010040320_000_007,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:fanlanlan,AddTime:2014-09-30 10:32:48.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:30:16.0,HitCount:17,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2847943,DownCount:5,AuthorInfos:{"裴长洪":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""},"樊明太":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:1999-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:对外贸易发展的若干分析与展望,ISBN:7-80149-177-7,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:对外贸易发展的若干分析与展望,_RowNo:9
CommonID:DIR_12847984,ID:2847984,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:140113,name:资本流动与国际收支的分析与展望,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2847737,AbstractCH:本文主要介绍了对1998年“资本外逃”的分析;吸收外资对外汇供求的影响;稳定国际收支的政策含义;对吸收外资和国际收支状况的预测。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:29888,7484,47669,EKeyWords:32275,20162,61535,SubjectWords:226375,LiteratureId:2847985,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201405010040320_000_008,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:fanlanlan,AddTime:2014-09-30 10:32:49.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:30:16.0,HitCount:13,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2847986,DownCount:5,AuthorInfos:{"裴长洪":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:1999-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:资本流动与国际收支的分析与展望,ISBN:7-80149-177-7,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:资本流动与国际收支的分析与展望,_RowNo:10
CommonID:DIR_12847999,ID:2847999,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:140114,name:产业结构现状分析与趋势预测,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2847737,AbstractCH:本文首先阐述了产业结构的变化,1998年的变化及较长时期以来的产业结构变化。其次介绍了结构偏差现状及影响结构变化的原因:三次产业结构偏差及纠偏效应;轻重工业比重偏差及原因;政府干预的影响。接着分析了1999年及更长时期中国产业结构的变动趋势分析,1999年及更长时期的产业结构变动趋势分析。最后提出了建议:结构调整中市场机制应发挥主导作用;结构调整的风险及政策;加大结构调整援助政策的力度。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:20527,182803,26220,EKeyWords:53135,182804,130908,SubjectWords:226376,LiteratureId:2848000,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201405010040320_000_009,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:fanlanlan,AddTime:2014-09-30 10:32:50.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:30:16.0,HitCount:36,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2848001,DownCount:7,AuthorInfos:{"江小涓":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:1999-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:产业结构现状分析与趋势预测,ISBN:7-80149-177-7,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:产业结构现状分析与趋势预测,_RowNo:11
CommonID:DIR_12848044,ID:2848044,SiteID:14,Type:chapter,Code:null,ParentId:0,InnerCode:140115,name:国有企业改革与发展的对策分析,ShortName:null,SubName:null,EnTitle:null,EnShortTitle:null,EnSubTitle:null,Level:0,BookId:2847737,AbstractCH:本文首先分析了国有企业改革与发展的现状:98年国有企业改革与发展状况及当前国有企业存在的有关突出问题。其次阐述了国有经济在当前经济中的地位与作用。接着从当前市场新特点来看国有企业改革:消费与生产;应当充分注意高科技时代和潜在知识经济社会下经济情况;国有企业改革与创新。最后阐述了政策分析:简历现代企业制度是国有企业改革的根本方向及3年脱困目标必须结合未来中长期的发展目标。,AbstractEN:,KeyWords:47971,21321,24587,EKeyWords:84313,26323,20349,SubjectWords:214764,LiteratureId:2848045,Fileref:null,OrderFlag:0,IsLeaf:N,PubDate:null,FindDate:null,IssueDate:null,DocType:null,ProductSeries:null,Doi:null,InstanceID:0,MinNodeSearch:Y,XmlID:b1201405010040320_000_010,Prop1:null,Prop2:null,Prop3:null,prop4:null,AddUser:fanlanlan,AddTime:2014-09-30 10:32:51.0,ModifyUser:Admin,ModifyTime:2023-11-06 12:30:16.0,HitCount:22,ShowType:putong,LogoID:0,PdfID:2848046,DownCount:6,AuthorInfos:{"李军":{"Address":"","Affiliation":"","Email":"","Role":null,"Photo":"","Blurb":""}},BookPublishDate:1999-04-01 00:00:00.0,SearchTitle:国有企业改革与发展的对策分析,ISBN:7-80149-177-7,BookTitle:中国经济前景分析,BookStatus:7,AllowDownload:Y,BookVersionNum:null,researchorg:null,CopyRightDate:null,ExcellentPeriod:null,PrizeLevel:null,IsExcellence:null,ContentClass:null,IsDisabled:N,SearchTitle_2:国有企业改革与发展的对策分析,_RowNo:12
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